Breakout or Fakeout: Christian Kirk
In the ‘Breakout or Fakeout’ series, we identify unproven players whose values are more reliant upon their potential than their production. Will they step up and become must-start fantasy assets? Or are they players to avoid? Read on to find out…
Entering his third year in the NFL, Christian Kirk is a player with both fervent supporters and detractors. Here we objectively classify him as a ‘breakout’ or ‘fakeout’.
AS A PROSPECT
When the Arizona Cardinals selected Kirk in the second round of the 2018 NFL Draft, they added draft capital to an extremely strong prospect profile. His college dominator and target share metrics are in the top quarter of historical wide receiver prospects. His breakout age of 18.8 years (93rd percentile) is elite. He produced early and consistently at Texas A&M.
The raw numbers:
Statistics from sports-reference.com.
AS A PRO
Kirk made a modest impact on an historically bad 2018 Cardinals team. He managed a 43-590-3 receiving line despite playing in 12 games and starting only seven.
Statistics from Pro Football Reference.
This came on a team that finished among the league’s worst in terms of pass completions, attempts, yards and touchdowns. The 2018 Cardinals offense was historically bad. Not only did it rank dead last in several categories, but some of those results were also the worst the league had seen in years.
In 2019, Kirk finished as WR40 in PPR and played in 13 games. On a per-game basis, his 12.9 points per game put him at WR32 between AJ Brown and TY Hilton.
KIRK’S VALUE GETS NUK’D
In March, the Cardinals traded for perennial WR1 DeAndre Hopkins, a 28-year old in his prime. Kirk’s dynasty value, which had stayed in a tight fourth to fifth round startup range since last August, fell by two full rounds of ADP.
The addition of Hopkins presumably slots Kirk as the WR2 in Arizona. Larry Fitzgerald last produced a WR2 or better fantasy season in 2017. KeeSean Johnson, Andy Isabella, Trent Sherfield, Hakeem Butler and Johnnie Dixon have a combined 53 career receptions. The team’s WR2 job should be Kirk’s to lose, but can he still be fantasy relevant playing behind Hopkins?
Over the last ten years, 42 teams have produced two wide receivers who finished in the top 24 in fantasy. That is an average of 4.2 teams per season. Last year, three teams had a duo that managed it (the Buccaneers, Rams and Cowboys).
The lower-finishing receiver across those 42 data points averaged 118.7 targets per season.
In 2019, Larry Fitzgerald led the Cardinals with 109 targets. Kirk was second with 108 targets (in 13 games). Prorated to 16 games, Kirk projected to 132.9 targets, surpassing the rough volume threshold to be a team’s WR2 and still produce a fantasy WR24 or better season.
But those targets were earned alongside the aging Fitzgerald, not prime Hopkins, who has produced as a fantasy WR1 four of the last five years (two of those as the overall WR1). Over those four years, he averaged 170 targets per season, a gaudy 32.0% team target share. For reference, Fitzgerald’s team-leading 109 targets were just 20.0% of the team’s total. On the 2019 Cardinals, a 32.0% share would have resulted in 177 targets – not far from Hopkins’ recent average.
So for Hopkins, raw target and target share totals are in line with last year’s Cardinals, who ranked 18th in the NFL in pass attempts. But does that leave Kirk with a realistic shot at fantasy WR2 production?
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Let’s go back to the 42 teams producing two top-24 receivers in fantasy the last ten years. All but four of those teams ranked in the top half of the NFL in pass attempts. Here are the outliers:
- 2017 Vikings (22nd)
- 2016 Broncos (17th)
- 2014 Packers (20th)
- 2010 Giants (17th)
But ranking in the top half of the league wasn’t enough. The 42 teams had an average rank of ninth (9.2 to be exact) among 32 teams in total pass attempts. So while the 2019 Cardinals finished a respectable 18th in pass attempts, and it marked a dramatic improvement from 29th the previous season, their pass volume must increase to create confidence in Kirk’s chances.
THE KINGSBURY EFFECT
Fortunately, the right man has the job. Kliff Kingsbury’s offenses are productive and high-volume. We’ve already touched on the improvements in his first year leading the Cardinals, but that’s just one year of data. His college teams were pass-heavy and productive. His Texas Tech teams finished top ten in total yards in four of his six years and never lower than 16th (out of roughly 130 teams). And it came from the passing game.
Texas Tech finished within the top ten nationally in pass yards per game every year under Kingsbury, and only once within the top 50 (three times outside the top 100) for rushing.
Back to volume, here are his teams’ national ranks in total plays per game, rushing plays per game and pass plays per game.
Though the college and pro games are different, it is clear that Kingsbury’s teams emphasize the pass. This notion is reinforced by the selection of Kyler Murray with the number one overall pick, the trade for Hopkins and the drafting of three wide receivers in the 2019 draft. Meanwhile, the only significant running back addition made by the team was this year’s seventh-round selection of Eno Benjamin to join incumbent Kenyan Drake.
Earlier, we noted that the 2019 Cardinals ranked 18th in pass attempts but we want to see them up around ninth. Last year, the New York Giants ranked ninth with 607 pass attempts – 53 more than Arizona, a difference of just 3.3 pass attempts per game.
CONCLUSION
Christian Kirk has a strong profile as a prospect out of college. He has been a solid producer in two NFL seasons while his ADP has followed a steady upward trajectory. Even after the two-round hit it due to the Hopkins trade, Kirk’s ADP is well above its value as he entered the league.
Hopkins’ arrival is not a death blow to Kirk’s breakout chances. Historical data shows that roughly four teams per year produce two top-24 fantasy wide receivers. Arizona is not far away from the volume that would support both Hopkins and Kirk in that framework. Given the promising talent of Kyler Murray, the pass-heavy track record of Kliff Kingsbury and the overall profile of Christian Kirk, Kirk gets my vote as a breakout player.
Verdict: Breakout
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