2020 Summer Sleeper: Las Vegas Raiders
In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.
To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:
Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.
Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.
Divisional rivals of the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs need to score points. This off-season, both the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders used prime draft capital to upgrade their offensive skill talent.
It is a new-look receiving corps bubbling with youth and talent for quarterback Derek Carr and head coach Jon Gruden. Tight end Darren Waller led the 2019 Raiders in targets (117) but did you know…
Hunter Renfrow was second on the team – and first among receivers – with 71 targets? He is the subject of this Raiders Summer Sleepers profile.
Hunter Renfrow, WR
Category: Deep Sleeper
THE PLAYER
The Raiders selected Renfrow in the fifth round of the 2019 NFL Draft, a spot his overall prospect profile suggests is appropriate. Renfrow exhausted his college eligibility so was a ripe 23 years old on draft day. He had a knack for showing up in big games and managed to compile more than 2,000 receiving yards at Clemson, but key metrics such as college dominator, target share and breakout age put him in the bottom third of historical wide receiver prospects.
Statistics from sports-reference.com.
THE SITUATION
In his rookie season, Renfrow trailed only Waller in targets and receptions while playing in just 13 games and starting four. This produced a roughly WR60 finish on the year in PPR for both the full season and on a per-game basis – not the makings of a superstar but enough promise to be considered a deep sleeper.
This production is more respectable when taken in the context of his fifth-round draft capital.
My DLF colleague, Scott Connor (@CharlesChillFFB), recently noted the following:
Only 5 WR's drafted in RD3 or later in the last 20 years have played their rookie year at the age of 24 and scored more than 100 PPR points. pic.twitter.com/y4NCP5cs3G
— Scott Connor (@CharlesChillFFB) July 20, 2020
Nice group, that.
Since 1970, he is one of only nine wide receivers drafted in the fifth round or later to see 70 or more targets in his rookie season.
Statistics from Pro Football Reference.
This table is sorted by yards per target. Note that Renfrow had similar production to fellow fifth-rounder Darius Slayton, a player gaining momentum this off-season.
Their ADP values converged early during the season, followed a similar upward track until the NFL draft, then diverged. The Raiders spent the 12th overall pick on Henry Ruggs, then back-to-back third-round picks on versatile playmaker Lynn Bowden and breakout age phenom Bryan Edwards.
Renfrow faces immediate competition. Meanwhile, Slayton’s role was unaffected as the New York Giants did not draft a single offensive skill player. The 100 spot ADP difference between players with similar profiles and rookie production is being driven by situation.
The 2019 Raiders finished among the league’s top ten teams in total passing yards, adjusted yards per attempt and quarterback rating despite ranking 21st in pass attempts. They did not pass often but were effective and efficient when they did.
However, the team’s overall offensive output was poor. They scored on a low percentage of drives (22nd) with few touchdowns (19th in points per drive). A closer look suggests some blame lies with the defense and special teams, and some is even due to pace of play. They had the sixth-worst starting field position of any team. Only one team (Washington) had fewer offensive possessions (161) throughout the season but the Raiders’ average time of possession was third highest in the league.
The offense was put in bad positions. Their few possessions ate clock and were efficient through the air, but did not result in points.
The off-season additions of Ruggs, Edwards and Bowden should help, but that is not necessarily good for Renfrow.
THE COST
As noted above, Renfrow’s ADP peaked around the tenth round of startups just before the 2020 NFL draft. It now sits at 185th overall and WR86 in the July DLF ADP data.
The DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer uses an algorithm combining ADP, DLF rankings and real-world MyFantasyLeague trades to value players and draft picks. In terms of rookie picks, it values Renfrow in line with a 2021 third-rounder.
THE CONCLUSION
Hunter Renfrow is inexpensive at his current valuation of WR86 or a 2021 third-round rookie pick.
Ruggs, Edwards and Bowden will increase competition for targets but two factors mitigate this concern. First, Renfrow may be the truest slot receiver on the team. His role may be insulated even with the talented trio added to the mix. Second, rookies have not been able to participate in team activities as in a usual off-season. The newcomers may take time to produce. The second-year Renfrow finds himself as a veteran among the unit.
Renfrow possesses limited upside so I would not pursue him as a standalone target. However, as an add-on to a main deal or a free-agent acquisition, he has room for short-term value appreciation and utility as an occasional deep flex option in deeper leagues.
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