2020 Summer Sleeper: Green Bay Packers
In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.
To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:
Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.
Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.
Head coach Matt LaFleur finished his first season with the Green Bay Packers last year with a 13-3 record. His leadership led the Packers to their first postseason appearance since 2016. The team was ultimately was knocked out of the playoffs in the NFC Championship Game by the San Francisco 49ers.
The team geared more towards the run in 2019 with a 40.19 percent run rate. Davante Adams missed some time due to injuries and only played 12 games. Outside of Adams’ 997 yards receiving, Aaron Rodgers evenly distributed the ball, producing four 400-yard receivers and five receivers with 30 or more catches. It was a frustrating season for Rodgers. Injuries hit the wide receiver corps hard, creating a lot of ambiguity in the offensive unit from a week-to-week basis.
Devin Funchess, WR
Category: Deep Sleeper
The Packers needed to add talent and depth to the wide receiver position after a 2019 season where the team had to deal with multiple injures throughout the offense. There were a few options on the table in free agency, but the team decided to sign Funchess to a one-year, $1.25 million deal. Previously, he spent four seasons with the Carolina Panthers and his 2019 season with the Indianapolis Colts.
Funchess became damaged goods after he broke he collarbone in week one against the LA Chargers. He was immediately added to the injured reserve list and did not appear in another game for the rest of the season. This made him out of sight and out of mind for most fantasy owners.
He wasn’t considered a mega-producer while at Carolina. His best season came in 2017 when he caught 63 passes for 840 yards and eight touchdowns. The following year, he managed to produce 549 yards and four touchdowns in 14 games. Many fantasy gamers considered him a breakout waiting to happen, but ultimately, he didn’t live up to expectations.
Courtesy of DLF’s ADP Over Time App.
Ever since his inception into the league, we’ve seen his dynasty drop up and down like a roller coaster. Since he wasn’t able to play in 2019, his value dropped like a rock. His value spiked in 2018 where he was valued as the WR32.5 per DLF’s ADP which makes sense considering 2017 was his most productive season. Injuries can derail a player’s value. Especially, if that player was considered a speculative breakout option that never lived up to the hype.
Since he’s currently valued at a bargain-basement price point and is now playing with one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, he now becomes a deep sleeper in most dynasty formats. We don’t need him to be wildly productive to outperform his ADP. If he can string together three to five WR2 weeks while hovering in the WR30-40 range for the rest of the time being, then he would deliver a small return on the investment.
This could very well happen considering there isn’t much competition on the depth chart. Adams is going to command a large portion of the targets. Last year, he owned a 29 percent share of the passing targets and a 33 percent share of the air yards. Allen Lazard was next in line with a 12 percent target share. This is a situation where one pass-catcher will cannibalize a large portion of the workload, making it harder for anyone else to step in and deliver fantasy-relevant results.
There’s a lot of ambiguity in the passing offense. Lazard is pegged as the team’s WR2 in the offense. There will also be competition from Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Equanimeous St. Brown, and Jake Kumerow. If there’s a positive, the team didn’t spend any significant draft capital at the wide receiver position. Funchess will get the opportunity to compete for snaps as early as day one on the team.
However, if there’s a negative, then it would be to the team rebranding as a run-focused offensive attack. In 2019, the team increased their run-rate by 7.73 percent from the previous season. The Packers spent a second-round pick on AJ Dillon, running back from Boston College and a third-round pick on Josiah Deguara, a blocking H-back/tight end from Cincinnati. By reading the tea leaves from what the Packers have done through the draft and free agency, the team is building to bolster the run. Funchess was the main addition to the passing game while the team brought in Dillon to add talent and depth to an already stout run game.
At 6-foot-4 and 232 pounds, Funchess instantly becomes one of the top red-zone options for the team. Green Bay is projected to be one of the better teams in the league and will be able to consistently move the chains. The team should see plenty of opportunities in the red zone and if Funchess is on the field, we will see some of the targets get funneled to him.
With him already being a deep sleeper, the odds of him being able to come out of nowhere and deliver WR1 results are highly unlikely. The odds of him outperforming his ADP are very good if he can earn a large enough snap share to get involved in the passing offense. I don’t see how that can be unlikely given the ambiguous nature of the passing offense.
Adams is the main threat here because he can steal a large portion of the targets. The run game might also be more robust compared to years past, making it harder for ancillary receivers to gain traction in the offense. If Funchess can prove himself in camp and develop into one of the more trustworthy wide receivers in the offense, then we could see him start churning out some production.
We shouldn’t expect Funchess to immediately takeover with his new team. There should be a transition period for him. He will also need to prove he’s a reliable pass-catcher to Rodgers who is labeled as one of the most finicky quarterbacks in the league. There’s a good chance he doesn’t build the rapport needed with his new quarterback to become a key staple in the offense.
We could possibly get midway through the season and Funchess becomes an afterthought. On the contrary, if he plays well, then he will have the chance to assert himself in one of the most efficient offenses in the league.
Dynasty owners shouldn’t fully trust Funchess going into the 2020 season, but he’s in a spot where he can excel if given the opportunity. Given his 229 ADP, expectations should be tempered as he should be considered a no-loss investment.
