Breakout or Fakeout: DK Metcalf
In the ‘Breakout or Fakeout‘ series, we identify unproven players whose values are more reliant upon their potential than their production. Will they step up and become must-start fantasy assets? Or are they players to avoid? Read on to find out…
Heading into the 2019 NFL Draft, DK Metcalf was a polarizing NFL prospect. His estimated draft position widely varied. On one hand, there was elite size, speed, and athleticism.
But on the other hand of the argument was production based on a severely limited route tree. Most of Metcalf’s college production occurred on two route types: the go route, and the hitch.
In the end, Metcalf fell to the Seahawks in the second round, and hype and speculation in the dynasty community ensued. What could an uber-efficient Russell Wilson accomplish with a Thanos-sized perimeter receiver? (The Thanos comparison is unrealistic and unfair. Thanos can’t run a 4.33-second 40-yard dash.)
Rookie Production
At the end of the 2019 season, three rookie receivers finished with 900 or more receiving yards.
Going back to 1999, only 16 total players have had 900 or more receiving yards and at least seven touchdowns in their rookie season. A quick glance at this list puts Metcalf in some impressive company.
Courtesy of Pro Football Reference.com
Metcalf was second to Tyler Lockett in team targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. They operated as a one-two punch that proved to be successful. Metcalf accounted for 19% of Wilson’s targets on his way to a WR33 finish in PPR leagues.
He finished with only three games of playing less than 75% of offensive snaps. Keeping him on the field in most packages sets the trend for continued opportunity moving forward.
Is it possible that Metcalf is merely scratching the surface of his potential while tied to Wilson?
Even though it did not count for fantasy purposes, we cannot forget or fail to mention his playoff game against The Philadelphia Eagles – the one where he casually had seven catches for 160 receiving yards and a touchdown. We also cannot forget that this performance set a postseason single-game record for a rookie wideout.
Looking Ahead
The previously-mentioned snap counts paint a picture of expected, similar usage moving forward. The closest thing the Seahawks brought in for target competition was the ghost of Greg Olsen at tight end. No disrespect to Olsen, but he is 35-years old and has not played a full season since 2016. They also brought in Philip Dorsett via free agency, who poses little risk to impede Metcalf’s involvement. Otherwise, David Moore is the next receiver in line for targets, and should not peck into Metcalf’s snaps or hinder his target volume.
With a wide receiver-heavy 2020 class, the lack of high draft capital at the position speaks highly of how the Seahawks value the duo of Lockett and Metcalf. They selected former Florida Gator, Freddie Swain in round six and LSU product Stephen Sullivan in round seven. Again, neither receiver poses a threat for overtaking Metcalf’s role in this offense.
In short, the 1A-1B Locket/Metcalf structure proved to be efficient for Wilson.
In this percentage fantasy points graph, we can see how similar the one-two receiving punch worked for the Seahawks. One of the areas in which we can hope to see some improvement is in chemistry between Metcalf and Wilson. Wilson has been nothing short of consistently efficient in his throws throughout his career. The 58% catch-rate could improve and would have a positive impact on Metcalf taking that second-year leap.
The other aspect worth touching on is how much Wilson trusted Metcalf in the red zone. Wilson targeted Metcalf 15 times in the red zone, good enough for second-most on the team. Again, Metcalf’s less-than-average catch percentage became apparent. He managed to reel in only four of those targets, three of which went for scores.
Last season, Metcalf saw fewer than five targets in a game on only four occasions. His 100 targets were the most for a second-round pick in the last five years.
As chemistry with Wilson continues to grow, the target volume should remain, if not increase. The biggest factor that could make or break the difference between a true breakout and a complete fakeout is improving his catch percentage. Among his teammates, Metcalf had the third-worst catch percentage of his targets. Paired with a truly efficient quarterback is a good start to achieving that goal.
As anyone who rosters Wilson can attest to, passing volume remains suspect in this run-early, run-often offense. In 2018, Wilson finished with 427 pass attempts, second-lowest of his career. He followed that up in 2019 with 516 attempts, third-highest of his career. Woes on defense could translate into more reliable passing volume, which in turn is positive for Metcalf as the secondary passing target in this offense.
Conclusion
Pretending that the dreaded second-year slump does not exist is an exercise in fantasy disappointment. Metcalf is already on his way to proving his doubters wrong in his ability to be more than a go-route pony.
However, his ADP has been on the rise.
Per the most recent DLF ADP data, he is the WR11, one spot behind AJ Brown and ahead of Odell Beckham.
As his value rises, so does the risk of being a bust candidate. However, we are still not sure how high his potential ceiling is.
In summary, at just 22 years old, DK Metcalf is poised to, at the very least, pick up where he left off at the conclusion of the 2019 season. His role in this offense is secure and his target volume should remain the same or increase heading into the 2020 season. His red-zone presence could vault his productivity rather easily if he is able to clean up his moderate catch-rate.
Metcalf should finish the season as a mid-to-high-end WR2 and should be an every-week starter. While his ceiling is a back-end WR1 with double-digit touchdown upside. He represents a candidate who is going at the expected cost of a receiver poised on the precipice of breaking out. Meaning, he lacks the lower-cost, high-value aspect of a breakout candidate, but not the production end of it. Metcalf has become a favored target of mine in various dynasty leagues.
Verdict: Breakout
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