2020 Summer Sleeper: Denver Broncos

Scott Connor

In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.

To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:

Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.

Because we are not going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.

One year ago, Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman were RB26 and RB33 respectively in overall ADP at the position and they appeared to be one of the NFL’s best rushing duos. The Broncos proceeded to finish 20th in the NFL last season with just under rushing 104 yards per game and the front office clearly believed the position needed to be addressed when they signed former division foe Melvin Gordon to a two-year contract in March.

Lindsay’s ADP has tumbled to RB43 and Freeman has disappeared entirely from the dynasty radar as he currently sits at RB78. As we enter a perspective 2020 season with more unknowns and expected variance than ever before, do not give up on Freeman and his overall ADP of 243 doing a re-appearing act.

Royce Freeman, RB

Category: Deep Sleeper

Three years ago, dynasty owners were dancing with excitement with the prospects of having Freeman on their squad. And for good reason. He left the University of Oregon as one of the most productive running backs in FBS history logging over 1,000 touches and 6,400 yards in four years as a Duck.

His durability in handling a massive workload at a high level of competition going back to his true freshman season and his above-average overall metric profile put him squarely in the mix to step right into a starting role.

screen shot 2020 07 20 at 14.17.18

Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.

Freeman vs Lindsay 2018

Unfortunately, expectations were difficult to live up to. Freeman entered the 2018 season as the RB15 overall in the September ADP and shockingly, was the number two overall rookie player to begin the season. His teammate Lindsay debuted at 35 overall in the rookie class and the rest was history. Lindsay posted 222.8 PPR points and finished RB13 on the season while Freeman’s 101.3 PPR points ranked him 47th overall. A high-ankle sprain forced Freeman out of the week seven matchup against the Cardinals and he never regained his footing. Lindsay proceeded to post three additional top-five finishes after the Freeman injury and entered the 2019 season with an ADP more than two rounds higher.

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Freeman vs Lindsay 2019

Lindsay continued to out-produce his fellow 2018 rookie brethren last season and finished as the RB18 overall. Freeman checked in at RB36. The 190-pound Lindsay dominated the early-down work handling 224 of the team’s 359 rushing attempts but was out-targeted by Freeman 50 to 48.

During the week nine game against the Browns and prior to the Broncos’ week-ten bye, the team made the change to insert Lindsay into the early-down role and use Freeman as a satellite back. He received only 39 carries in the team’s remaining seven contests but out-targeted Lindsay over the same span.

The Broncos offensive line ranked 12th according to Pro Football Focus and under first-year offensive line coach Mike Munchak, focused primarily on a zone running scheme.

Why Are We Still Interested?

After the signing of Gordon to carry the heavy workload, Lindsay settles in as a handcuff option destined for a small piece of the pie while Freeman is buried on the depth chart. There are three reasons he should not leave your radar, despite the massive value fall and underwhelming first two seasons and why he should be a priority on the back of your dynasty roster.

Profile – Freeman’s production profile is well-documented. He has the prototypical size of a lead NFL back and has shown adequate ability to catch the ball both in college and thus far in the NFL. His 107.8 weight-adjusted speed score courtesy of Football Outsiders and is in the top 20 percent of running backs in the last 20 years.

Change of Scenery – According to this Mile High Report Article, Freeman has an uphill battle to make the Broncos roster and in the past, Pat Shurmur’s third (and fourth) running backs have played special teams. In his first two years in the NFL, Freeman has not played a single special teams snap, making his roster hopes that much more challenging.

2020 Variance – The 2020 season is shaping up to be unpredictable. With COVID-19 testing taking place frequently, a mandatory three games missed for a positive test should bring opportunity to more and more players next season. If Freeman changes teams, his profile should elevate him to the top of the list as “next player up” in any given week.

According to the DLF Trade Analyzer, Freeman checks in with a score of 35.8, slightly more than the value of a random 2021 third-round pick (32.9). To acquire Freeman, request him as a throw-in to a deal where you cash out on a more expensive running back at market value for a future pick and prioritize him in leagues with a point-per-carry bonus. As evidenced by a recent trade on the DLF Trade Finder, the deal below is a perfect example of how to get this player on your roster at almost no cost.

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Conclusion

At 24 years old, bank on Freeman’s profile for one more year and see what happens. If you need a reminder, check out his 2018 Rookie Profile and 2018 RB Class Charting Profile as a reminder of just how solid Freeman was as a draft prospect and why he could rebound in value on your dynasty roster in 2020.

scott connor