Breakout or Fakeout: Preston Williams

AJ Fernandez Posted On July 21, 2020

In the ‘Breakout or Fakeout‘ series, we identify unproven players whose values are more reliant upon their potential than their production. Will they step up and become must-start fantasy assets? Or are they players to avoid? Read on to find out…

Preston Williams’ rookie year will be glossed over by many in the fantasy community. His final line was 32 receptions, 428 yards and three touchdowns on 60 targets in eight games prior to tearing his ACL. For redraft, I understand caution due to the injury but this is a dynasty website and we should all be running to the window for more Williams shares.

A Historic Debut

There aren’t many undrafted free agents (UDFA) who play during their rookie year, and even fewer get a chance to start. You can fit the number of UDFAs who make a year-one impact on the tip of a needle. Given his draft status, Preston Williams had arguably one of the most impressive rookie seasons of any receiver in the last two decades.

Sadly, his campaign was cut short with an ACL tear but he was tracking on a 16-game pace of 120 targets, which would be 20th most since 1992, the first year of data. Digging further, there are 21 rookie receivers who had at least 115 targets, 12 yards per reception and a 50% catch rate. Williams would have been the only UDFA to make the list had his season continued. In fact, only two players on that list were drafted beyond the second round – Marques Colston (seventh) and Mike Williams (fourth).

Early and Often

Williams burst on to the scene, scoring a touchdown in week one. The DLF snap count app shows how involved he was in the offense compared to other rookie receivers drafted much higher.

screen shot 2020 07 21 at 07.30.24

Other than Terry McLaurin, no rookie receiver reached 90% of his team’s snaps faster than Williams. He maintained a snap share of over 80% until sustaining an injury in week nine. It is clear to me that the Dolphins signed him with intent to feature him. He even out-snapped former first-round pick DeVante Parker from weeks three-eight.

screen shot 2020 07 21 at 07.32.31

Blake Hampton (@BlakeAHampton) showed recently that receiving yards, receptions, and targets are the top three rookie year stats for predicting sophomore fantasy PPR points per game:

https://twitter.com/blakeahampton/status/1283030531043721218?s=21

Using his 16-game pace, Williams would rank fourth, first, and first among rookies, respectively.

One could argue that his final numbers would have been better than that pace as he grew into the offense. Remarkably, his production occurred in the first eight games, not during a second-half surge.

What Does The Future Hold?

The aforementioned group of 21 rookie receivers who Williams belongs with is loaded with fantasy stars. Multiple Hall of Fame inductees and countless Pro Bowls are represented on the list. I would only classify four players as disappointments after their rookie season: Michael Clayton, Mike Williams, Kelvin Benjamin, and Sammy Watkins. The full list below is courtesy of Pro Football Reference:

Player	Year	Age	Draft rd	Tm	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Y/G	Ctch%
Terry Glenn	1996	22	1	NWE	167	90	1132	12.58	6	75.5	53.90%
Anquan Boldin	2003	23	2	ARI	165	101	1377	13.63	8	86.1	61.20%
Kelvin Benjamin	2014	23	1	CAR	145	73	1008	13.81	9	63	50.30%
Joey Galloway	1995	24	1	SEA	133	67	1039	15.51	7	64.9	50.40%
Odell Beckham Jr.	2014	22	1	NYG	130	91	1305	14.34	12	108.8	70.00%
Amari Cooper	2015	21	1	OAK	130	72	1070	14.86	6	66.9	55.40%
Mike Williams	2010	23	4	TAM	129	65	964	14.83	11	60.3	50.40%
Sammy Watkins	2014	21	1	BUF	128	65	982	15.11	6	61.4	50.80%
Keyshawn Johnson	1996	24	1	NYJ	125	63	844	13.4	8	60.3	50.40%
Randy Moss	1998	21	1	MIN	124	69	1313	19.03	17	82.1	55.60%
Michael Clayton	2004	22	1	TAM	122	80	1193	14.91	7	74.6	65.60%
Mike Evans	2014	21	1	TAM	122	68	1051	15.46	12	70.1	55.70%
Michael Thomas	2016	23	2	NOR	121	92	1137	12.36	9	75.8	76.00%
DeSean Jackson	2008	22	2	PHI	120	62	912	14.71	2	57	51.70%
Preston Williams 16 game pace	2019	23		MIA	120	64	836	13.4	6	53.5	53.30%
Andre Johnson	2003	22	1	HOU	119	66	976	14.79	4	61	55.50%
Marvin Harrison	1996	24	1	IND	118	64	836	13.06	8	52.3	54.20%
Dwayne Bowe	2007	23	1	KAN	116	70	995	14.21	5	62.2	60.30%
A.J. Green	2011	23	1	CIN	115	65	1057	16.26	7	70.5	56.50%
Marques Colston	2006	23	7	NOR	115	70	1038	14.83	8	74.1	60.90%
Larry Fitzgerald	2004	21	1	ARI	115	58	780	13.45	8	48.8	50.40%

Given opportunity and production, the closest rookie season to Preston Williams’ is Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison, and Williams was two years younger.

Opportunity Abounds

Because of his undrafted status, poor team performance, and an ACL injury, there is a unique window to acquire Williams for pennies on the dollar. I have been able to get him as a glorified throw-in on multiple dynasty trades this off-season and his startup draft value is out of line with his production.

He is on an ascending offense that just drafted an awesome quarterback prospect in Tua Tagovailoa. The team did not add any meaningful receivers to their corps this off-season. There may be a rocky start in the first year after the ACL injury, but his debut was on par with greatness and the future is bright.

Despite all this promise, Williams is currently being drafted as the WR48 according to the DLF ADP app. This is well behind AJ Brown (WR9), DK Metcalf (12), Terry McLaurin (25), Deebo Samuel (26), and Marquise Brown (29). Not only is Preston Williams a breakout candidate, but he is also a tremendous buy relative to the other members of this past rookie class.

Verdict: Breakout