2020 Summer Sleeper: Los Angeles Chargers

Josh Brickner

In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.

To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:

Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.

Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.

The term sleeper for the Chargers might be best used to describe the fan excitement for the franchise in the city of Los Angeles. From a dynasty perspective, the Bolts have players being drafted early in Austin Ekeler (25) and Keenan Allen (53) while Hunter Henry (90) and Mike Williams (103) are going a little later in startup drafts. Rookie quarterback Justin Herbert (177) and lackluster veteran Tyrod Taylor (240) are technically sleepers based on ADP, but both are known quantities in dynasty circles.

The player being profiled today broke records at one of the premier football programs in America, but finds himself as somewhat of an afterthought in the dynasty sphere.

KJ Hill, WR

Category: Super Deep Sleeper

It was comedian Rodney Dangerfield who famously quipped: “I tell ya, I get no respect, no respect at all!” Hill and the late, great Mr. Dangerfield share this dilemma. All the Ohio State alum did during his collegiate career was set the school record for career receptions (201), caught a pass in 48 consecutive games, and earned honorable mention All-Big Ten honors in both 2018 and 2019.

Despite the accomplished collegiate career, Hill was an afterthought in the 2020 NFL Draft, being selected by the Los Angeles Chargers in the seventh round with the 220th overall pick. That’s about as low as you can get as far as draft capital goes. The Buckeye product was disappointed by this slight, but took it in stride and vowed to get to work.

Measurements

Taking a look at Hill’s athletic measurables, there’s no way to deny it… they are bad! These numbers are likely the biggest explanation as to why he was still on the board towards the backend of April’s draft. Hill’s athletic profile most compares to Aaron Fuller, Sammie Stroughter, and Alan Bonner. Who? Exactly!

Strengths and Weaknesses

How does a player with such undesirable athletic measurements set his school record for receptions? By being a route-running tactician and having a velcro-like pair of hands. The Buckeye receiver beat man and zone coverage alike providing JT Barrett, Dwayne Haskins, and Justin Fields with a chain-moving security blanket during his tenure in Columbus.

The above video does a fantastic job of breaking down the small idiosyncrasies of the OSU record-holder’s route-running prowess. Hill’s foot/eye work and quick burst out of his routes in the one-on-one drills in the senior practices were on display all week in Mobile. In fact, he was named the North Squad’s practice player of the week at wide receiver.

While the Chargers rookie lacks the vertical speed to consistently leave defenders in the dust, he demonstrates a unique ability to shed defenders at the point of contact and gain extra yardage.  A legitimate concern about Hill is he spent the majority of his career in Columbus in the slot. While this exclusive work on the inside limits the Buckeye product’s NFL ceiling, he projects perfectly as an NFL possession wide receiver.

Opportunity

The top four targets for the Chargers are Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Hunter Henry, and Mike Williams (probably in that order). Hill has neither the draft capital nor the athleticism to challenge any of these four men for offensive opportunities barring injury/sickness. However, his main competition will be for the Chargers WR3 spot with fellow rookie Joe Reed.

On the surface, it appears Reed’s speed, athleticism, and fifth-round draft capital automatically vaults him ahead of Hill in the battle for offensive snaps. Yet, digging below the surface shows a glimmer of hope for the seventh-rounder. One Reed’s weaknesses is his limited route tree and overall inability to fight through contact on said routes. These are both areas where Hill excels. While 40-yard dash speed is the main job requirement of a kick/punt returner, the ability to run clean, crisp routes are the required traits for an NFL slot WR.

Dynasty Value

There’s an interesting difference between the DLF rookie rankings and ADP data when it comes to KJ Hill. He’s ranked as WR26 (four spots behind Reed) yet is coming off the board (4.08) 17 (!) spots ahead of the former Cavalier. Hill is rostered in 22% of leagues in My Fantasy League. Thus, we see a small percentage (hand raised) who recognize Hill’s PPR potential. Due to this, I’m going against my bosses at DLF and classifying Hill as a Deep Sleeper instead of a Super Deep Sleeper as he belongs on your taxi squad in leagues which award a point per catch.

Conclusion

Full disclosure: I’m a lifelong Ohioan who was not only in the Horseshoe when Hill caught his first career touchdown pass in 2016 but watched 47/48 of his consecutive game catch streak (best man at my little brother’s wedding). However, please don’t let my inherent Buckeye bias dismiss my argument for Hill out of hand.

Ohio State wide receivers don’t have the best analytic profile and are non-starters for many dynasty degenerates. One needs to look no further than Terry McLaurin to see a Buckeye wide receiver’s college dominator rating is not the only predictor of NFL success. The wide receiver room in Columbus has been producing more skilled, NFL ready players since former Dolphin Brian Hartline took over as WR coach in 2018. Buckeye receiver alums are no longer relying on talent alone (see Michael Thomas).

Let me be clear, Hill has nowhere close to the WR1 ceiling we see from McLaurin; their comparison ends at being undervalued by a good portion of the dynasty community. Hill is a solid pick in the late fourth round in rookie drafts as he has the makings of a future WR3/bye week replacement PPR dynasty darling. If he’s sitting on the waiver wire in your league, spend a dollar or two of your FAAB and thank me later.

josh brickner
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