2020 Summer Sleeper: Miami Dolphins
In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.
To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:
Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.
Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.
Few depth charts in the NFL changed as much as the Miami Dolphins’ one in the last year. From this time last summer to today, the Dolphins have gained a franchise quarterback and two journeyman running backs who have started at times in recent seasons. They lost a running back who found success in Arizona and looks to be a true feature back. The team also shipped out a franchise offensive tackle and rotated pieces along the line all last season.
The offense does feature some bright spots and should be able to move the ball in 2020. DeVante Parker finally “broke out” and Preston Williams looked like a capable receiver on the other side of the field. Mike Gesicki took a step forward and gave the team a dangerous tight end to split the middle of the field. Along the road, they won a few more games than most expected, yet they still ended up with the franchise quarterback fans wanted – Tua Tagovailoa.
The backfield could give you two fantasy-relevant backs but I am going to highlight who I think is a sleeper – a player who can be acquired fairly inexpensively who could give your fantasy team some points in 2020.
Jordan Howard, RB
Category: Sleeper
I want to preface this segment by addressing what you might be thinking. Matt Breida is the superior back of the newly-added duo. He is faster, more versatile, and much more dangerous. He has never been able to stay healthy and has only had one season in which he started more than ten games. He is a smooth pass-catcher and an elusive runner with solid vision who has proved more than capable – when he can play.
Howard was the feature back in Chicago during his first three seasons in the league. He started 44 of 47 games and eclipsed 1,000 in each of his first two seasons, narrowly missing the mark in 2018. His yards per carry dropped each season and his pass-catching role diminished to nothing.
Stats Courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
The offense in Chicago took steps backward but Howard wasn’t the only reason. He is a solid two-down back and the declining yards per carry were not entirely on him. The line regressed and offense evolved. When Matt Nagy took over as coach, it became obvious Howard was not in the team’s long-term picture. They traded him to Philadelphia in the 2019 off-season. Howard started four games and rushed for over 500 yards but never secured a lead role. Miles Sanders emerged late in the season and Howard became the odd man out again. In the off-season, he inked a two-year deal with the Dolphins and turns only 26 in November.
Howard is a strong runner with decent vision, capable of catching passes although hasn’t been asked to often. He doesn’t break a lot of tackles but runs through contact frequently. Ball security is not an issue and he doesn’t miss game-time. If you need a dependable back who isn’t spectacular but reliable, Howard is your back.
I dove deeper into advanced rushing statistics and his struggles are a bit exaggerated. In 2018, he was sixth in the NFL with 250 carries and had 492 yards after contact but was only credited with eight broken tackles. He had 1.8 yards after contact on average and the number was 2.0 yards in 2019. In context, league rushing leader Derrick Henry averaged 1.9 yards after contact.
Using the Football Outsiders Advanced Rushing Stats, Howard still performed well last season. Using success rate, which measures success by down and distance, 53% of his rushes were successful. This ranked eighth and above backs such as Alvin Kamara, Kenyan Drake, and Raheem Mostert. Howard ranked sixth with a 14.2% Defense- Adjusted Value Over Average, or DVOA. This average is value per play over an average running back in the same game situations. In contrast, Christian McCaffrey had 14.9% and Aaron Jones was just below Howard with 12.0%.
The Dolphins backfield will come down to the health of Breida. He will likely get most of the carries if he can stay on the field. Howard could still see a good amount of two-down work even with a healthy Breida. The goal-line carries should also go his way for the most part and therein lies his value. Howard will get a handful of scores and 700-800 yards this season is attainable, giving him a solid RB3 value.
As a long-term dynasty asset, his value is suppressed and will probably stay suppressed for the entire career. He is a solid back to gain yards on first and second-down and will also see touchdown opportunities. Howard can likely be acquired inexpensively still due to the lackluster aura surrounding his name. Below are a few trades I found using the DLF Dynasty Trade Finder tool:
Howard is a solid buy candidate for 2020 and could fill in for your fantasy squads in bye weeks. If you are employing the zero-RB strategy, Howard is also a perfect candidate to grab late in drafts.
- Devy Roundup: Week Ten - November 10, 2020
- Devy Roundup: Week Eight - October 27, 2020
- Devy Roundup: Week Seven - October 20, 2020
