2020 Summer Sleeper: Dallas Cowboys
In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.
To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:
Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.
Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.
Under the trusty wing of Jason Garrett, the Cowboys finished the 2019 season with an 8-8 record and second in the NFC East behind the Philadelphia Eagles. During the off-season, the Cowboys decided to make a change and transition to Mike McCarthy as their head coach who formerly led the Green Bay Packers to six NFC North titles. McCarthy should create a drastic change in the team’s offensive philosophy, making a lot of changes in play calling and how the passing game influences the overall offensive game plan.
We saw another big change this off-season when the Cowboys drafted CeeDee Lamb in the first round. He should instantly see playing time in the offense as the team’s third wide receiver. During his last season at Oklahoma, Lamb averaged 3.99 yards per route run. We will see him develop into one of the top weapons in Dallas’ offense.
Tony Pollard is an easy sleeper to peg on our draft boards. He’s already on the radar for a lot of people – especially for those owners who like to fade the running position and draft zero-RB. DLF has him slotted with a 129 ADP as the 45th running back off the board behind Jordan Howard, James White, and Phillip Lindsay.
I like to either go deeper or at least think outside the box with this article series with the hopes that I can put you on notice on a certain player or to allow to look at football in a different way by sharing parts of my evaluation process.
Andy Dalton, QB DAL
Category: Super Deep Sleeper
Dalton played nine seasons for the Cincinnati Bengals, where he was selected to three Pro Bowls and had four playoff appearances. There he passed for 31,594 yards, and 204 touchdowns. Dalton finished his career in Cincinnati as one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever wear a Bengal uniform.
He was released in the spring of 2020. A few days later, he was scooped up by the Dallas Cowboys and signed a one-year, $3 million deal. He was signed to be the team’s backup quarterback and potentially as an insurance policy just in case contract negotiations go south with Dak Prescott.
What makes him a super deep sleeper is his current player value. He’s not being drafted in many traditional dynasty startup drafts and is so far off the radar that he doesn’t have an ADP. Therefore, most drafters don’t value him as being roster-worthy in traditional 12-team leagues. That is highly understandable since he is a backup quarterback behind a young healthy one who has a stranglehold on the starting job.
Everybody is an injury risk in the NFL. We can’t have contact sports without injuries. Some players are more susceptible to injuries than others. On that note, what would happen if Prescott were to go down with a major injury? Or if he caught Covid-19 and missed two or more weeks? In these scenarios, we are going to see Dalton step in, get the keys to the car, and drive the offense until Prescott comes back. Depending on what happens that could be for a few series or for a large portion of the season.
There’s not a lot of sizzle that comes to mind when we think about Dalton’s NFL career as a whole, but there’s some steak left in the pan that could provide some substance. Dallas is one of the few teams in the league that will be deploying three very talented wide receivers on a play-by-play basis. When you combine the passing-game amplifications to what Ezekiel Elliott and what the offensive line adds to the run game, then you get a very tantalizing situation that could yield fantasy results for many pieces in the offense.
Those results could very well trickle down to Dalton if he gets the opportunity to take over as the starter anytime during the season. Although he played most of his career with AJ Green and many other talented receivers, he never played with an offensive unit that’s comparable to Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, and Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys offensive weapons is a tide that will be able to raise all boats. Albeit, some waves might be higher than others depending on the quarterback’s talent, but we will see an increase in efficiency and production from anyone lining up under center or the Cowboys in 2020.
Dallas and Tampa Bay were the only two teams in 2020 to produce two wide receivers in the top ten in yards per route run. Cooper finished his second year with the team ranked in eighth in the league with 2.29 yards per route run and Gallup completed his sophomore season ranked tenth with 2.16 yards per route run. Both wide receivers are very efficient and can produce at a high level. Then we add in Lamb who forced 26 missed tackles and averaged 11 yards after the catch per reception during his final year at Oklahoma. This is a wide receiver group that could develop into something special or at least a nasty three-headed monster.
Courtesy of DLF’s QB History App.
Dalton has a history of being able to carry multiple wide receivers to fantasy relevancy. He was able to lead his WR2 to top-30 status five times during his tenure in Cincinnati. We also saw him elevate his WR1 to seven top-12 seasons. With that being said, he’s more than capable of being able to funnel the football to his top pass-catchers. If given the opportunity, it’s going to be very interesting to see what he does with Dallas’ three top pass-catchers.
Courtesy of DLF’s Coaching History App.
With it being Mike McCarthy’s first year as the Cowboys’ head coach, we have to drawback to his time with Green Bay to evaluate some of his coaching tendencies. Keep in mind, an argument can be made that some of his figures could have been boosted by elite-level quarterback play by Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre. Not to mention he got four QB1 seasons out of Aaron Brooks. Correlation doesn’t always mean causation, but it’s safe to say that McCarthy serves or has been served by his quarterbacks very well.
Courtesy of DLF’s Coaching History App.
McCarthy’s offenses also lean more pass-heavy. Even in the early 2000s, McCarthy had a tendency of throwing the ball more or at the very worst keeping the play-calling neutral. This will bode well for Prescott and possibly Dalton. We will no longer see Jason Garrett forcing Kellen Moore to call for the run when it’s third and long. There will also be less clapping on the sideline, but will neither help nor negate Dalton’s ability to see the field.
Again, prospecting Dalton’s rise from the ashes will be all for nothing if Prescott leaves the 2020 season unscathed. However, when compared to some of the other backup quarterbacks in the league, Dalton goes forgotten. He’s literally in one of the best situations for any quarterback. He’s playing behind a good offensive line and has superior weapons to dish the rock too. The odds of him being efficient and producing relevant fantasy statistics are good. We just need him to get on the field.
Dalton is a super deep sleeper because there’s a chance we go through the entire NFL season without him taking any meaningful snaps. The odds will increase if the NFL plays a shortened schedule this season.
In traditional dynasty leagues, Dalton is best left on the waiver wire. Most dynasty owners won’t have enough room for him on their roster. However, we need to take a hard look at him in 2QB and deeper leagues where quarterbacks are more valued. Dalton could potentially be a league-winner or a season saver down the stretch if something were to happen to Prescott.
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