Twitter Observations: Veterans > Rookies
Whether the 2020 season happens or not, dynasty leagues will live on. After all, the point of a dynasty league is the fact it really never ends. So far, the NFL is proceeding as if it is going to have a season and that means there are practices and training. At the very least, there is news for us to dissect. Below are some tweets that caught our eye this week and what they mean for your dynasty teams.
A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.
Sims City
Give the ball to Steven Sims and good things happen pic.twitter.com/YE5drjHpis
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) July 14, 2020
With news that Kelvin Harmon had torn his ACL, most eyes turned to Washington rookie receiver Antonio Gandy-Golden to benefit the most. It makes sense since Harmon managed 44 targets last year and Gandy-Golden was the only pass-catcher added this off-season. But there’s another young receiver who stands to benefit and has already shown flashes of being a quality dynasty asset.
The formerly undrafted free agent Steven Sims saw little attention through three quarters of his rookie season, never seeing more than four targets in a game. But over the last month, he saw a total of 36 targets and never fewer than seven in a game as Washington’s slot specialist. He also scored four times and was a top-ten fantasy receiver between weeks 13 and 17.
Dynasty Impact: The Harmon injury will undoubtedly boost the targets of Gandy-Golden as there are the 44 targets mentioned above to go along with the 42 left behind by now-former Washington receiver Paul Richardson. We also can’t forget the 58 former Washington running back Chris Thompson had last year which Sims, as the slot receiver, is in prime position to siphon. In all, that’s nearly 150 targets to be divvied up between Washington pass catchers. If Sims manages to see even a third of them, he’ll see 100 targets on the year and be a real asset. Using the DLF Trade Analyzer, he can currently be acquired for a mid-third round rookie pick, which I would do all day.
Rolling Jones
Weekly Ronald Jones Stat:
RoJo caught 31 passes on 40 targets last year for a 78% catch rate (28th of all players).
His 31 receptions as a RB tied for 20th among RBs.
His yards per receptions (10) was 4th among RBs.
Stop telling me RoJo can’t catch the football. It’s false.
— Robby Jeffries (@NFLRobby) July 10, 2020
Ever since Tom Brady arrived in Tampa Bay, every Buccaneers offensive player’s dynasty stock has shot up and Jones is no different. As the starting running back on an offense that is sure to operate more efficiently than last year (you can’t do much worse than Jameis Winston’s’ 35 turnovers), not only is he expected to gain more yards but also see the ball more in general. He managed to gain over 700 yards on the ground, despite ranking 23rd in rush attempts, and wasn’t bad in the passing game either (see Tweet above) where he turned 31 receptions into 300-plus receiving yards.
Of course, this was before Tampa used a third-round pick on running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn who is all the rage in the second tier of rookie drafts. How do we balance the optimism that comes with Brady’s arrival with the fact the Bucs used a day two draft pick on another running back?
Dynasty Impact: Put me on Team RoJo as to who the Tampa running back to have in the dynasty is. He proved he belonged last year despite the horrendous play of his quarterback, is younger than Vaughn, and has slightly better draft capital. Yet, here are their ADPs in the last few months:
I don’t get it, but I also think this is a perfect opportunity to buy Jones. Vaughn is currently going to require a late first-round rookie pick. By comparison, and according to our DLF Trade Analyzer, you can pick up Jones with an early second-round rookie pick. Give me the cheaper, younger, more known product over the more expensive, older, untested third-round rookie any time.
Units of Everett
gerald everett is the most affordable late round te w/ monster upside:
*rams increased 12-personnel in second half
*126 vacated targets
*93rd percentile burst & 82nd percentile agility
*draft capital
*college mega-producer
*FOUR top-6 tight end scoring weeks thru week 10 in 2019. pic.twitter.com/RYxyHFWEkj— the podfather™️ (@Fantasy_Mansion) July 14, 2020
Remember Gerald Everett? The former second-round pick was quickly becoming an important piece of the Rams’ offense in 2019, seeing at least eight targets in three of LA’s first seven games and was a TE1 in fantasy scoring for the first half of the season. But a knee injury allowed backup Tyler Higbee to take the reins of the starting tight end job and never let go. Over the last five weeks of the season, Higbee saw at least eight targets in every game, totaled at least 100 yards in four of them and was, literally, the top fantasy tight end in that span. Arguably, those were Everett’s stats to lose until his injury.
Dynasty Impact: As the tweet illustrates, Everett is still a physical freak with or without the targets. After all, there is a reason he was drafted 44th overall in 2017 behind only OJ Howard, Evan Engram and David Njoku. The usage will be the biggest factor in his dynasty value, but the tweet has good news there, too. Between the trade of Brandin Cooks and the arrival of untested rookies, there’s a need for veterans, including Everett, to pick up the slack. He currently ranks as DLF’s 26th dynasty tight end which would mean he’s on the TE2/3 line. If your dynasty rosters are large enough to keep three tight ends, Everett is one of the few who has TE1 upside.
Feeling Bear-ish
Nick Foles’ 2013 was lights out
11 games, 256yds per game, 26TDs, 8.5%TD rate, only 2INTsBill Lazor was the PHI QB coach in 2013, now CHI OC
Foles will be starting CHI QB and will put up career numbers. He’ll be a steal in SF leagues.
— Jacob Rickrode (@ClutchFantasy) July 12, 2020
Lord help me. On the surface, there’s no particularly good reason to believe in (another) Nick Foles resurgence. He’s on his fifth team since 2015, has topped 2,200 passing yards just once in his career and has never even played a full 16-game season. However, Foles manages to always be in the right place at the right time, turning short stints as a starter for a team into a starting gig for another.
After catching on with several teams who immediately didn’t need him anymore, his second stint with the Eagles was the pièce de résistance where he took over for an injured Carson Wentz and led Philadelphia to a championship, nabbing Super Bowl MVP honors along the way. He parlayed that into a big contract with Jacksonville who – surprise – didn’t want him anymore and shipped him off to Chicago this past off-season to compete with (current) draft bust Mitchell Trubisky.
Dynasty Impact: Compared to other quarterbacks on the move this season, Foles cost the Bears quite a bit with a fourth-round pick going to Jacksonville. That price can only mean the Bears are expecting and wanting Foles to take the job. The presence of Lazor can only help and, as the tweet denotes, Foles could be a fantastic value in superflex leagues. He’s currently ranked 36th in our dynasty rankings and is worth a late-second or early-third in rookie superflex drafts. Consider his ceiling is a low-end QB1, like it was the last time he had Lazor as an offensive coordinator, and Foles could be a steal.
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