Breakout or Fakeout: Daniel Jones

Bruce Matson Posted On July 16, 2020

In the ‘Breakout or Fakeout‘ series, we identify unproven players whose values are more reliant upon their potential than their production. Will they step up and become must-start fantasy assets? Or are they players to avoid? Read on to find out…

Everybody thought the joke was on the New York Giants when they selected Daniel Jones as the sixth overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. Jones quickly turned the tables on everyone by dethroning Eli Manning and passing for 3,027 yards and 24 touchdowns in just 13 games.

What makes Jones an interesting prospect for dynasty is that he’s only 23 years old and he has proven to be productive already as a rookie, posting four QB1 weeks and seven QB2 weeks. There were only two weeks that he played last season where he didn’t register in the top-24.

Ultimately, his performance led to him finishing the season as QB20 on the season. However, if he played a full 16-game season, he would have come closer to fringe QB1 status. Just 47.88 fantasy points separated him from Carson Wentz who finished the season as the QB12. His 18.84 fantasy points per game ranked 11th among NFL quarterbacks who played in eight games or more.

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Jones’ ADP has been on the rise ever since his inception into the league. His performance during his rookie season elevated his value to QB14 with an ADP of 134.83 overall. He’s currently behind both Tua Tagovailoa and Joe Burrow in average draft position. His age insulates his value, making him a safe option in dynasty.

The goal here is to judge whether he will be a breakout or fakeout. He technically exceeded expectations last year, but to be considered a breakout he would have to hit QB1 territory. Obviously, a fakeout would be him falling well below his current ADP.

One thing that could prevent Jones from free-falling down the ranks is his rushing ability. He finished the season with 279 yards rushing and had seven games with 20 or more rushing yards. He’s averaging 21.46 rushing yards per game and the average is adding around two extra fantasy points per start. This elevates his floor in fantasy it makes him more reliable on a week-to-week basis.

The Giants also allowed him to sling the ball all over the field. He posted five 300-yard performances and five multi-touchdown games. On top of that, he averaged 284 air yards per game and 8.04 air yards per attempt. Per PFF, 11.8 percent of his passes went for 20 yards or more. The added air yards per attempt also boosts his floor in fantasy because the deeper attempts provide more opportunities for splash plays.

https://twitter.com/GiantsAlliance/status/1281201825627209728?s=20

One of the reasons why the Giants relied on Jones to push the ball downfield is because he has a cannon for an arm. It may not be consistent, but he does have the ability to thread the needle over long distances. His mobility allows him to extend plays and gain a few extra yards if he does get flushed out of the pocket.

Speaking of splash play, Saquon Barkley is one of the best receiving backs to ever grace the NFL. In 2018, when he was fully healthy, he ranked third in the league with 752 yards after the catch. An elite-level check-down option can do wonders for a quarterback’s fantasy production. All it takes is one or two dump-off passes where Barkley zips past the defense for a long gain for Jones to see a boost in his fantasy output.

Barkley being healthy makes it easier for the Giants to keep the chains moving which will allow the team to sustain drives and creep into the red zone more often. All this creates more opportunities for Jones, allowing him to have the ball in his hands more and get more cracks at the red zone.

Regression is always in the cards for a young quarterback. If he takes a step back in his development we could see even more interceptions and misfired passes. There were times during his rookie season where his play would get erratic with turnovers and off-the-mark passes.

Coaching changes could hamper his development. We’ve seen many young quarterbacks take a step back because they are consistently transitioning into new offensive systems. Joe Judge will be the team’s new head coach after spending seven years with the New England Patriots.

Judge brought in former NFC East foe Jason Garrett to be the team’s offensive coordinator. Garrett wasn’t considered the most creative offensive play-caller during his time in Dallas, but it will be interesting to see how things work out for him with his new team. Time will tell if the changes made will be a good fit for Jones.

Injuries and dealing with Covid-19 creates a lot of ambiguity for the 2020 season. These are very real circumstances that could prevent him from reaching his true potential. Not only do we have to worry about his health, but we have to think about his teammates as well. If the offense isn’t firing on all cylinders, then they won’t be able to consistently move the ball downfield. Even if he’s playing well, if he or any of his main offensive weapons are missing a large portion of the season, then the risk of him being a ‘fakeout’ increases.

I think he’s a relatively safe bet to at least hover around his ADP. If he takes a step forward in his development or if a few of his matchups break into high-scoring affairs, we could see him develop into a low-level QB1. He would need to really turn things up to jump into the top-five, but rising up to the QB10-12 ranges is not outside the realm of possibilities and is very feasible.

Anything can happen in the NFL. There’s a chance he could take a step in the wrong direction. The offense as a whole could fall flat on his face preventing him from holding his value in 2020. Although there’s a chance the worst could happen, I think he’s a relatively safe bet to at least hold his value.

It’s tough making a final verdict for Jones because it’s easy to peg him finishing right at his ADP. However, I think he’s more likely to improve than completely fizzle out. With that being said, I’m going to label him as a breakout for 2020.

I feel very confident when I place a chip on Jones, he’s at least going to hold his value, but his upside of being a low-end QB1 is very obtainable. It’s harder for me to bet against him. Therefore I must side with Jones in this debate.

Verdict: Breakout

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Bruce Matson

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

I'm a financial counselor for a hospital in South Central Ohio. I graduated from Muskingum University with a bachelor's in business while minoring in Economics and Accounting. I won my first fantasy football title with Jake Plummer as my quarterback.