2020 Summer Sleeper: Baltimore Ravens
In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.
To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:
Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.
Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.
A long, long, long time ago, way back in 2019, Justice Hill was a trendy pick to be a rookie sleeper. This wasn’t specific to DLF writers either. There was another (at the time) non-DLF writer, who was also a pretty big fan of Hill.
Me, I’m talking about me (please ignore any references to Darwin Thompson).
Though we need to recalibrate what we think Hill can be, there is still value to be mined in adding him to your roster. His upside might not be an RB2 season, but that doesn’t preclude from him providing you RB2 or flex-worthy weeks. At his current cost, Hill is a player I am actively trying to add to the bottom of my rosters, and I think you should as well.
Justice Hill, RB
Category: Sleeper
Hill grew on the dynasty community after landing with the Ravens in the 2019 NFL Draft and his ADP saw a steady rise throughout the summer. His initial ADP of 178 in February 2019 slowly crept higher and higher as the draft process progressed. It (mostly) continued to rise after the draft and finally spiked to 104 by the time September mock drafts concluded.
Despite some of our wild-eyed optimism for Hill, he was rarely used during his rookie campaign, and only saw a total of 66 total touches. It’s easy to point to Mark Ingram having one of the most efficient seasons of his career as the reason that Hill rode the pine most of the season. Ingram’s 5.0 yards per rushing attempt was the second-highest of his career as were his ten rushing touchdowns, while he set a career-high with 8.5 yards per target and five receiving touchdowns (on just 26 receptions). But it’s not just that Ingram was amazing, Hill frankly wasn’t very good, ranking 96th in fantasy points per opportunity per FantasyData.
Now that Hill has a rookie season, with minimal usage under his belt, and JK Dobbins has joined the Ravens as their franchise-back-to-be, Hill’s current ADP is Dollar Store cheap at 218.
Not only does Hill need to compete with Ingram and Dobbins, he still has to contend with Gus Edwards too. Edwards very quietly rushed for 711 yards, sporting a 5.3 yards per carry which ranked second in the league among running backs.
So why are we buying Hill then? The cost, my friend, the cost is right. We’ve already discussed his ADP, but his trade market is equally depressing.
Using the DLF Dynasty Trade Finder we come up with several Hill-related trades made during the month of June 2020. You can acquire Hill right now for a wide receiver who has shown no real desire to play football ever again if you so choose. He was also involved in one of the saddest trade packages I’ve ever encountered in my dynasty life (look at the sixth trade, sad face emoji goes here). The point is if you really want him, you can acquire Hill for a pittance.
Though the path to relevance is not exactly easy, a path does still exist. Ingram turns 31 during the 2020 season and has played in 12 or fewer games in four of his nine seasons in the NFL. He can also be released after the season if the Ravens were so inclined to reallocate some of their resources to other positions.
After being hit with Exclusive Rights Free agent tag during the 2020 off-season, Edwards’ cost should rise significantly from this season’s $750,000 salary as he’ll be a restricted free agent at the conclusion of the year.
Hill did provide a peek into what he could do when given some run to end the 2019 season. His two highest-scoring weeks came in weeks 16 and 17, and he also saw a season-high in snaps in the Ravens’ divisional playoff loss to the Titans.
Punching in touchdowns during those weeks accounted for most of his scoring during weeks 16 and 17, but he did get to show off his versatility with 13 rushing attempts and six targets. Hill’s 1.36 fantasy points per opportunity during those two weeks would have ranked first in the league for running backs if done over a full season (yes, I know that’s a really small sample size).
If Ingram was to go down at any point during the season, Hill’s skill-set would lend itself to him absorbing some targets normally earmarked for Ingram, as well as a sprinkling of carries. Hill showed during his time at Oklahoma State – especially during his sophomore campaign when he hauled in 31 receptions – that he can be used as a primary back due or at worst as a receiving threat as well as a change-of-pace back.
Statistics from sports-reference.com.
Though Dobbins has shown to be a more-than-capable receiver and a far superior runner than Hill, it’s doubtful the Ravens would give him 30 touches a game. The COVID-effected off-season also should provide Hill with a leg up on Dobbins as pertains to the receiving concepts for running backs since this is Hill’s second year in the Ravens offense.
Edwards is an excellent straight-line runner but brings next to nothing to the table as a pass-catcher, averaging 0.33 receptions per game through his two seasons. Per teamrankings.com, the Ravens’ 36.8 rushing attempts per game led the NFL last season, and even if Lamar Jackson continues to be a dual-threat weapon, it’s doubtful that Baltimore wants him to keep running the ball 11.73 times per game as he did during the 2019 season.
As a free square, Hill is worth adding to your rosters. His range of outcomes stretches from a player you’ll cut in 2020 to a weekly flex play (if so many things break right for him). If given a chance to flash this upcoming season he has the ability to do. And the situation should improve greatly after the season when Ingram is likely a cap casualty and Edwards receives a better contract elsewhere.
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