Understanding 2019 Defenses in a Historical Context: AFC and NFC West

Tom Kislingbury Posted On July 11, 2020

Team defense is very unstable in the NFL. We continually get caught out by assuming that last year’s top defense will be good again. In 2018, we expected the Jaguars to be elite again. Last season, we were high on the Bears. Going into 2020, many people think the Patriots’ defense is going to dominate again. These are all bad decisions.

In dynasty, we generally don’t use team defenses (or shouldn’t anyway) but understanding defensive context gives us some idea as to what to expect for both IDPs as well as teams going forward. So much of strength of schedule is built on how good teams were last season and so much of that was dependent on how good their defense was. If we can spot trends, then it gives us information about the future. With that in mind, this article will focus on team defensive trends rather than cumulative individual stats.

I’ll look at each team from 2019 and try to identify how good or bad they were against the context of the last decade. To do that, I’ve looked at every significant defensive stat and ranked the 320 teams from the last decade. So we can properly identify which defenses were good and bad – and not just see a small sample size of “best/worst in 2019”.

All ranks will be given against this backdrop, so 87/320 means that team was ranked 87th out of 320 teams in that particular category.

Arizona Cardinals

There’s a lot of optimism for the Cardinals but it should not be underestimated how bad their defense has been. The 2019 Cards allowed:

442 points (292/320).
6,432 offensive yards (311/320).
6.0 yards per play (281/320).
375 first downs (314/320).
421 completed passes (317/320).
4,510 passing yards allowed (309/320).
38 passing TDs allowed (318/320).
Seven interceptions (302/320).
243 passing first downs allowed (316/320).

They were merely average against the run but in passing stats (and therefore overall defensive stats), this team had one of the worst defenses of the past decade.

They’ve made some moves but the players they brought in are unlikely to rapidly turn this defense around. Expect another bad defense. They’ll improve because it’s so hard to stay this bad – but they’ll be bad again.

Denver Broncos

Expectations were high with Vic Fangio taking over as head coach, but his effect was not as transformative as we hoped it might be. Overall, in fact, the defense stayed in the mid-level range. Not too bad, not too good.

Here are some indicative rankings:

316 points allowed (74/320).
5,392 yards allowed (116/320).
5.4 yards allowed per play (136/320).
17 turnovers (266/320).
305 first downs allowed (101/320).

This was a solid defense – just not a top one. Given Fangio’s history of excellence, there is a good possibility of the unit improving enough in 2019 to be a top quarter defense

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs had a wild defensive turnaround from 2018 to 2019. Admittedly a big factor in that was their offense being so great (and the effect on game script) – but their 2018 offense was great too. So that can’t be the only reason.

Here are some key stats from last season:

308 points allowed (57/320). That was over 100 points fewer than in 2018.
5,594 yards allowed (171/320).
3,543 passing yards allowed (91/320).
5.7 yards allowed per attempt (44/320).
2,051 rushing yards allowed (265/320).
4.9 yards per rush (299/320).
115 rushing first downs allowed (282/320).

The defense was much better overall – but they were pretty bad against the run. It’s tempting to think that they did this on purpose and allowed teams to rush on them whilst shutting down the passing game – modern football. But that’s not true either because they allowed 352 pass completions. It’s just a weird quirk.

Either way – it mostly came together for the 2019 Chiefs on defense. Even with some good personnel moves, it’s sensible to expect some regression.

Las Vegas Raiders

Okay, they were the Oakland Raiders last year. But you get the point.

The good news is that this defense got much better from 2018. The bad news is that they were so atrocious in 2018 that they were still pretty bad last year.

419 points allowed (258/320).
5,677 yards allowed (192/320).
5.9 yards allowed per play (264/320).
15 turnovers (294/320).
344 first downs allowed (262/320).
4,107 passing yards allowed (268/320).
33 passing TDs allowed (296/320).
7.4 net yards allowed per passing attempt (309/320).

You can see the story emerge. This is a very weak pass defense that failed to turn the ball over. The debate about whether pass rush or coverage is more important is interesting – but if (like the Raiders) you have neither, it’s very hard to overcome.

Los Angeles Chargers

It’s the summertime so (as always) people seem to think the Chargers are about to be brilliant. I admire optimism but we need to be aware of quite how bad they were last season. This article is about more macro stats than pressure but it’s worth noting they finished 31st in pressure – very close to dead-last Miami.

923 plays against (2/320).
5,009 total yards allowed (48/320).
14 turnovers (301/320).
285 first downs allowed (45/320).
15 rushing TDs allowed (220/320).
Just 8.2% of drives ended up with a takeaway (290/320).

The Chargers look good in a lot of stats because they played so little. And it wasn’t because they were great – it was just a really slow-paced team on both sides of the ball.

5.4 yards allowed per play (136/320).
6.5 passing yards allowed per play (192/320).
4.2 yards allowed per rush (142/320).

Chargers fans really did not get their money’s worth. Expect more snaps next season and way more volume stats against them.

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams moved on from Wade Phillips in the off-season which was odd. He may not have delivered IDPs but he certainly has a great history of delivering good defenses.

Last year was not vintage but it was still good.

364 points allowed (167/320).
5,434 yards allowed (126/320).
5.1 yards allowed per play (55/320).
324 first downs allowed (184/320).
5.9 net pass yards per attempt allowed (71/320).
194 passing first downs allowed (177/320).

Add in the fact that this was a top-five pass-rushing defense and a picture begins to emerge – it really was not a bad defense. But everything about the Rams in 2019 just seemed like a letdown after their spectacular 2018 season.

San Francisco 49ers

Now we’re cooking. The 49ers got a lot of (rightful) praise last season for Kyle Shanahan’s offense, but the defense was also elite. In many years this would have been the best defense in the NFL.

4,509 yards allowed (9/320).
4.7 yards per offensive play (12/320).
15 fumbles recovered (12/320).
285 first downs allowed (45/320).
2,707 pass yards allowed (1/320).
4.8 net yards per passing attempt (1/320).
Just 150 passing first downs allowed (3/320).

This was one of the very best coverage defenses of the last decade. But because the Patriots defense got so much hype from their high interception total, the 49ers defense flew a little under the radar.

Sadly, it was so good we’ll almost certainly see significant regression. Maybe not in points conceded – but certainly in yardage, turnover, and coverage terms.

Seattle Seahawks

Whereas the 49ers defense was much better than people realized – the Seahawks was much worse. They’re still trading off Pete Carroll’s reputation from the Legion of Boom, but this defense is a shadow of what it used to be.

398 points allowed (228/320).
6,106 yards allowed (286/320).
6.0 yards allowed per play (281/320).
346 first downs allowed (269/320).
383 completions allowed (278/320).
4,223 pass yards allowed (288/320).
224 passing first downs allowed (293/320).
22 rushing TDs allowed (310/320).
4.9 yards per rush allowed (299/320).

They were poor against the pass. They couldn’t stop the run. And they were a bottom-five pass-rushing team. It certainly looks like going back to a classic base 4-3 system was a disaster. But because the team got to the playoffs (and won a game), they have not had the criticism they deserve. Hopefully, they’ll be better in 2020 and finding a nickel back they trust will be a good start. But there’s every chance they continue to underwhelm.

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Tom Kislingbury

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Being from England Tom only discovered American Football in the late 90s. From there he's gone from casual defender to devoted obsessive and likes to delve into deep data primarily about defensive players. He spends his days trying to pretend the spreadsheets and graphs he makes about football are actually work for his day job. No-one is fooled.

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