Understanding 2019 Defenses in a Historical Context: AFC and NFC South

Tom Kislingbury

Team defense is very unstable in the NFL. We continually get caught out by assuming that last year’s top defense will be good again. In 2018, we expected the Jaguars to be elite again. Last season, we were high on the Bears. Going into 2020, many people think the Patriots’ defense is going to dominate again. These are all bad decisions.

In dynasty, we generally don’t use team defenses (or shouldn’t anyway) but understanding defensive context gives us some idea as to what to expect for both IDPs as well as teams going forward. So much of strength of schedule is built on how good teams were last season and so much of that was dependent on how good their defense was. If we can spot trends, then it gives us information about the future. With that in mind, this article will focus on team defensive trends rather than cumulative individual stats.

I’ll look at each team from 2019 and try to identify how good or bad they were against the context of the last decade. To do that, I’ve looked at every significant defensive stat and ranked the 320 teams from the last decade. So we can properly identify which defenses were good and bad – and not just see a small sample size of “best/worst in 2019”.

All ranks will be given against this backdrop, so 87/320 means that team was ranked 87th out of 320 teams in that particular category.

Atlanta Falcons

Much like their offense, this defense was very bland. There are always things you can find though, and the biggest was allowing scoring drives. The 2019 Falcons conceded points on 42.8% of all defensive drives (311/320). That will need to improve drastically.

That goes along with the fact they allowed 330 first downs (225/320). Simply put, the Falcons were not a terrible defense but they consistently allowed oppositions to stay on the field and get at least some points per drive.

Their other major issue was penalties. They conceded 127 defensive penalties (309/320) which is far too many.

Expect the 2020 Falcons to maybe not be drastically improved – but to allow fewer sustained drives.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers spent every single one of their 2020 draft picks on defense. And it’s easy to see why. It’s often noted that rushing defense is nowhere near as important as it used to be – and that’s true. But the 2019 Panthers are a good illustration that if you can’t stop the run, you can still be a terrible defense.

  • 470 points allowed (311/320).
  • 355 first downs allowed (289/320).
  • 2,296 rushing yards allowed (304/320).
  • 31 rushing touchdowns allowed (320/320).
  • 5.2 yards per rush (318/320).
  • 128 rushing first downs allowed (309/320).

This defense last season was one of the worst teams against the run in the past decade. Which just totally bombed the whole team. We fans were all shocked when they drafted Derrick Brown instead of Isaiah Simmons, but the team understood they absolutely needed to get better against the run. They’re not suddenly going to become the Steel Curtain, but we should be optimistic that they won’t be hamstrung by their inability to stop being run over.

Houston Texans

Oh dear. This was a poor defense last season. The Texans are a poorly put-together team who have such an electrifying quarterback that people often fail to see the flaws. They finished 19th in points allowed too which is pretty average. That also masked the weakness. Let’s look in a bit more detail:

  • 385 points allowed (204/320).
  • 6,213 yards allowed (296/320).
  • 6.1 yards allowed per play (300/320).
  • 346 first downs allowed (269/320).
  • 375 completions allowed (265/320).
  • 4,276 passing yards allowed (294/320).
  • 33 passing TDs allowed (296/320).
  • 220 passing first downs allowed (284/320).
  • 4.8 rushing yards per attempt (287/320).

It’s clear to see that the points they conceded were misleading. This was a bad defense. Although most of the time we expect poor teams to improve, it’s not certain here at all. The abject lack of talent at corner is a real problem. Expecting this defense to be bad in 2020 is realistic.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts’ biggest single move this off-season was adding DeForest Buckner and general manager Chris Ballard was vocal after that deal about how a top three-technique can power a whole defense.

The reason they needed Buckner is that the Colts were in an uncomfortable place. They could stop the run. But they were fairly weak against the pass. Overall, this was a middling defense that really needed an injection of excellence.

  • 394 completions allowed (298/320).
  • 3,982 passing yards allowed (239/320).
  • 29 passing TDs allowed (233/320).
  • 6.6 yards allowed per passing attempt (210/320).
  • 207 passing first downs allowed (255/320).
  • 1,567 rushing yards allowed (66/320).
  • 383 rushing attempts (46/320).
  • Eight rushing TDs allowed (37/320).

We should expect this defense to equalize a bit – to be a bit better against the pass and a little bit less good against the run. There’s unlikely to be a huge leap though – they already had that going into 2018 when they rebuilt the defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags are the best example of how fast a defense can change drastically. Their 2017 defense was one of the best of the last decade. Last year they were a bottom-ten unit.

Let’s look at which stats have changed most wildly:

  • In 2017 they allowed 4,578 yards (11/320). In 2018 4,983 (41/320) and last year 6,007 (264/320).
  • In 2017 they allowed just 4.6 yards per play (11/320), which rose to 5.1 in 2018 (81/320) and in 2019 6.0 (298/320).
  • They managed 33 turnovers in 2017 (21/320), 17 in 2018 (54/320) and 19 in 2019 (82/320).
  • 257 first downs allowed in 2017 (2/320), 288 in 2018 (51/320) and 340 in 2019 (255/320).
  • 2,718 passing yards allowed in 2017 (2/320), 3,113 in 2018 (21/320) and 3,778 in 2019 (167/320).
  • 4.8 yards per pass attempt in 2017 (3/320), 5.8 in 2018 (69/320) and 6.7 in 2019 (240/320).
  • Nine rushing TDs allowed in 2017 (69/320), 16 in 2018 (258/320) and 23 in 2019 (314/320).

Let’s stop there. It’s easy to see what a great example of rapid defensive change can look like. A defense is as good as its weakest link and things don’t all come together very often.

We can expect the Jags defense to be better than its 2019 iteration – but still nowhere near as good as the 2017 peak.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints defense in 2019 was fairly lopsided. They were passed on a lot and rarely rushed against. Some of this is game script but we need to remember that offense and defense are not that linked – not even in volume terms.

  • 603 pass attempts against (280/320).
  • 371 completions allowed (255/320).
  • 3,868 pass yards allowed (202/320).
  • 5.9 net yards per pass allowed (71/320).

That part is quite clear. Teams passed a lot against the Saints – but this was a good passing defense, so it was inefficient.

  • 345 rushing attempts (8/320).
  • 1,461 rushing yards allowed (39/320).
  • 71 rushing first downs allowed (21/320).
  • 4.2 yards allowed per rush (142/320).

They saw an extremely low volume of rushing attempts – but weren’t particularly good at stopping the run. They weren’t bad – just not good.

So, it adds up to be a defense that was excellent against the pass and average against the run – who were attacked in a very uneven way through the air. Interesting eh? Add in the fact that they led the league in pressure, and you have a good defense that is a little underrated because of the uneven way it was attacked.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The natural instinct for football fans is to assume that defense and offense are linked. You’ll often hear it argued that a team with a good offense will play few defensive snaps – because the offense dominates the clock. Or that a team with a bad offense causes the defense to play more snaps.

This is not true. It’s a fallacy that people believe in the face of contrary evidence. The 2019 Buccaneers are a good illustration. They played a huge amount on both sides of the ball. Which was driven by pass/rush splits. They passed the ball a lot and rushed relatively little. And opponents attacked them heavily through the air. The 2019 Bucs were an Arena League team. Here are some numbers to illustrate it.

  • 1,073 defensive plays (276/320).
  • 449 points allowed (299/320).
  • 5,503 offensive yards allowed (147/320).
  • 5.1 yards per play allowed (55/320).
  • 28 turnovers (70/320).

So, you can see they faced an awful lot of plays but were relatively good for the volume.

  • 664 passes attempted (319/320).
  • 408 completions (309/320).
  • 4,322 passing yards allowed (302/320).
  • 222 passing first downs allowed (287/320).
  • 6.1 net yards per passing attempt (109/320).

Again – they faced a huge number of passes which meant they allowed a lot of passing yards. But they weren’t terrible on a throw-for-throw basis.

  • 362 rushing attempts (19/320).
  • 1,181 rushing yards allowed (3/320)
  • 3.3 yards allowed per rush (3/320).
  • 70 rushing first downs allowed (16/320).

In raw numbers, their rushing defense looks amazing. Among the fewest yards and yards per rush of the last decade. But they faced a very small number of rushes. This defense was unusual in many ways. It should also be noted that they finished second in the NFL in total pressures behind the Saints.

Tennessee Titans

Popular opinion seems to be that the 2019 Titans were a defensive bully with a powerful rushing offense – the classic cliché for a defensive-minded coach.

Some of it is true. The team certainly did run the ball a lot. But the defense is overrated simply because the coach was a good defender. Here’s some evidence:

  • 1,056 offensive plays faced (251/320).
  • 331 points allowed (102/320).
  • 5,752 offensive yards allowed (217/320).
  • 335 first downs allowed (240/320).
  • 386 completed passes allowed (284/320).
  • 4,080 passing yards allowed (264/320).
  • 213 passing first downs allowed (275/320).
  • 125 defensive penalties conceded (305/320).

This was a defense that played a lot of snaps (slow, rushing offenses do not mean low defensive snaps) and allowed a lot of yards and first downs. They also conceded a huge number of penalties. They just did not concede a huge number of points which makes people think they were good. Similar to the fact that although the Titans offense was not that effective, they did manage a very high rate of scoring from the red zone.

The two side of this scream regression. Just to score or allow the same number of points the 2020 Titans will need to be a much better team.

tom kislingbury