Understanding 2019 Defenses In A Historical Context: AFC And NFC North

Team defense is very unstable in the NFL. We continually get caught out by assuming that last year’s top defense will be good again. In 2018, we expected the Jaguars to be elite again. Last season, we were high on the Bears. Going into 2020, many people think the Patriots’ defense is going to dominate again. These are all bad decisions.

In dynasty, we generally don’t use team defenses (or shouldn’t anyway) but understanding defensive context gives us some idea as to what to expect for both IDPs as well as teams going forward. So much of strength of schedule is built on how good teams were last season and so much of that was dependent on how good their defense was. If we can spot trends, then it gives us information about the future. With that in mind, this article will focus on team defensive trends rather than cumulative individual stats.

I’ll look at each team from 2019 and try to identify how good or bad they were against the context of the last decade. To do that, I’ve looked at every significant defensive stat and ranked the 320 teams from the last decade. So we can properly identify which defenses were good and bad – and not just see a small sample size of “best/worst in 2019”.

All ranks will be given against this backdrop, so 87/320 means that team was ranked 87th out of 320 teams in that particular category.

Baltimore Ravens

Everything about the 2019 Ravens was good and defense was no exception. Here are some stats where they excelled:

282 points allowed (24/320).
4,809 offensive yards allowed (23/320).
Just 921 offensive plays (1/320).
Just 276 first downs allowed (25/320).
15 passing TDs allowed (18/320).
340 rushes (5/320).

Some of this was determined by how good the offense was – but the result is the same: an elite defense. We should be expecting the 2020 Ravens’ defense to be worse across the board.

Chicago Bears

The story of the 2019 Bears defense is one of what regression looks like. The 2018 Bears were so good that expectations were unrealistically high. This defense certainly didn’t get bad, but they did disappoint. So, what actually changed?

Total yards allowed went from 4,795 (22/320) to 5,186 (75/320).
Turnovers dropped from 36 in 2018 (10/320) to 19 in 2019 (238/320).
Interceptions went from 27 (3/210) to ten (253/320).

The biggest change was clear to see coming. In 2018 they had a huge number of interceptions. Interceptions generally come from offensive mistakes rather than defensive excellence and cannot be relied upon from year to year.

That big (expected) change had some other big effects:

Net passing yards per attempt went from 5.3 (13/320) to 5.9 (71/320).
Rushing attempts went from 339 (4/320) to 414 (121/320).
Rushing yards from 1,280 (7/320) to 1,632 (89/320).

This is a classic case of going from elite to merely good. This is what regression looks like in practice. Regression tends to mean “getting worse” to people. That’s wrong. It really means is “not being quite so exceptional twice in a row”.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals defense in 2019 was pretty horrific for much of the year. Even though they had plenty of talent, it was under a brand new coaching staff with a new scheme after a long period of stability so change was expected. They’ll be a big candidate to improve significantly in 2020.

6,299 offensive yards allowed (302/320).
6.1 yards allowed per play (300/320).
Five fumbles recovered (287/320).
7.4 net yards allowed per passing attempt (309/320).
504 rushing attempts (305/320).
2,382 rushing yards allowed (313/320).
124 rushing first downs allowed (303/320).

You can see that they were especially poor against the run. They spent big on nose tackle DJ Reader and drafted three separate LBs. We should see an immediate improvement in this team against the run which will make the whole unit look better.

Cleveland Browns

The whole of the 2019 Browns season was a giant letdown and the defense has been lumped in with that.

Although points allowed stayed steady (392 in 2018, 393 in 2019) the Browns actually got better in some major categories.

6,288 yards allowed in 2018 (301/320) to 5,785 (219/320) in 2019.
1,122 defensive plays in 2018 (316/320) to just 1,014 (149/320) in 2019.
393 completions allowed in 2018 (296/320) to 318 (52/320) in 2019.
4,125 passing yards allowed in 2018 (271/320) to 3,470 (75/320) in 2018.
216 passing first downs allowed in 2018 (282/320) to 184 (101/320) in 2018.

They took major steps forwards as a passing defense from 2018. But they also had far fewer turnovers:

31 in 2018 (28/320) to just 20 in 2019 (219/320).
14 fumbles recovered in 2018 (20/320) to just six in 2018 {259/320).

Coupled with the fact they conceded the same number of points, this has led to the belief that the defense stagnated or even got worse in 2019 – but that was not the case.

The 2020 Browns are a prime example of a defense that is underrated based on last season’s overall troubles. And of course, Myles Garrett will be back on the team…

Detroit Lions

When the Lions hired Matt Patricia, the plan was likely not to deliver one of the worst defenses of the past decade – but that’s what happened in 2019.

6,406 offensive yards allowed (309/320).
1,094 offensive plays (301/320).
5.9 yards per play (649/320).
365 first downs surrendered (305/320).
4,551 passing yards allowed (312/320)
33 passing TDs allowed (296/320).
232 passing first downs allowed (310/320).
Seven interceptions (302/320).
40.1% of all drives allowed points (282/320).

In this light, trading Darius Slay away was still a big gamble – but it’s not like he was proving to be a difference-maker anyway.

There is potential here (Patricia is no idiot) but large changes will need to be made to be a viable defense against the pass. Hopefully, Jeffrey Okudah can deliver.

Green Bay Packers

The 2019 Packers were a huge breakout candidate team because of their commitment to the pass rush. And it seemed to pay off. Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith both had fantastic seasons. But that’s slightly misleading. The Packers were ninth in pressures and tenth in sacks. Those are decent numbers – but the fact that they had two star pass rushers makes people think they were better than they were as a team.

In team stats, they really didn’t stand out. But here are some of the more telling ones:

313 points allowed (62/320).
19 passing TDs allowed (44/320).
17 interceptions (76/320).
4.7 yards allowed per rush (268/320).
Just 20 penalty first downs allowed (25/320).

This defense is pretty good against the pass and below average but not awful against the run. They’re probably going to be similar in 2020.

Minnesota Vikings

Mike Zimmer remains one of the better defensive coaches in the NFL. His 2019 defense suffered some criticism and the corner situation is absolutely a mess. But this is still a very solid defense.

303 points allowed (44/320).
5,465 yards allowed (134/320).
5.2 yards per play allowed (82/320).
31 takeaways (28/320).

The big issue was simply the volume of passing they were asked to defend:

601 pass attempts (271/320).
215 passing first downs allowed (279/320).
394 completed passes allowed (298/320).
But they actually held up fairly well to the barrage:
3,737 passing yards allowed (155/320).
5.8 net yards allowed per pass attempt (54/320).

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers were the most lopsided team in the NFL last season – a very good defense but a horrible offense.

303 points allowed (44/320).
4,866 yards allowed (27/320).
4.7 yards allowed per play (12/320).
314 completions allowed (48/320).
3,113 pass yards allowed (20/320).
164 passing first downs allowed (24/320).
Seven rushing TDs allowed (21/320).
3.8 yards allowed per rush (42/320).

This was a very good defense. But there’s also a fly in the ointment. The 2019 Steelers were the beneficiaries of one of the least repeatable stats on football: turnovers.

38 turnovers (6/320).
18 fumbles recovered (4/320).
20 interceptions (30/320).

Only five teams in the last decade have managed more turnovers than this defense did last season. The teams that managed more turnovers during this period on average earned 12.6 fewer turnovers the season after.

You can expect the 2020 Steelers to have about one fewer turnover per game. That’s on top of any other effects. There are real red flags on this defense.

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Tom Kislingbury

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Being from England Tom only discovered American Football in the late 90s. From there he's gone from casual defender to devoted obsessive and likes to delve into deep data primarily about defensive players. He spends his days trying to pretend the spreadsheets and graphs he makes about football are actually work for his day job. No-one is fooled.

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