Twitter Observations: Patrick Mahomes, DJ Chark and Christian Kirk

Michael Moore Posted On July 9, 2020

For fantasy Twitter this week, there’s been two dominant storylines – the Patrick Mahomes deal and Scott Fish Bowl draft results. And while the former pertains more to the real-life NFL crowd while the latter is strictly a redraft exercise, there were stories and Tweets in between that could shade our dynasty teams. Below are a few of those including the implications of Mahomes’ massive extension.

A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.

Standing Pat

Final Patrick Mahomes’ deal:

10-year extension worth up to $503 million.

It includes $477 in guarantee mechanisms and the ability for Mahomes to have outs if guarantee mechanisms aren’t exercised.

Mahomes was represented on the deal by @chriscabott and @leighsteinberg.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) July 6, 2020

Even if we knew this was coming, the length and dollars of the extension are still staggering. The number of athletes who have reached a deal of that magnitude can be counted on one hand. So now that the formalities are out of the way and we know he’ll be in Kansas City for a while, what’s the effect on his dynasty value? Quarterback values are always an interesting question if you play in a 1QB league as there are seemingly more viable starters than teams in your league which devalues the whole position. But what happens when you have, possibly, one of the greatest to ever do it before he can even run for Congress?

Dynasty Impact: Earlier this off-season, my DLF colleague Jeff Smith explored the possibility of selling another top dynasty player at their position, Christian McCaffrey. In short, the lifespan of a running back is so short that you should soak up what little elite-level production you can and sell at that elite price before the inevitable decline. Of course, we don’t have that problem with Mahomes who could be this good for the next decade. Not to mention the players assembled around him are his age, or younger (!), and will be around too.

The next question is then the relative value of the best quarterback compared to other positions. In 1QB dynasty startups, Mahomes is going off in the late-second or the two/three turn.

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This would mean not taking your top running back, receiver or even tight end in favor of a position that currently has a surplus of startable players. However, I would argue that the point of dynasty is to, you know, build a dynasty. If the confidence rate of Mahomes continuing his success blows that of players at other positions, it’s justifiable to pair him with your top pick in a dynasty startup and not worry about the position for a decade or more.

Jump the Chark

https://twitter.com/RekedFantasy/status/1279782279515078656?s=20

Despite DJ Chark being taken in the second round of the 2018 NFL Draft, his breakout last year, where he topped 1,00 yards, was still a surprise. He not only missed five games his rookie season but saw just 32 targets in the 11 games he did play and failed to top even 200 receiving yards. Fast forward to 2020 and he has a full season of experience plus a (quasi) off-season under his belt, leaving his dynasty value trending up. Not only for the reason mentioned in the tweet above but he’s still the top target on a team that figures to be behind a lot and throwing the ball.

Dynasty Impact: If you have any apprehension about the class of rookie receivers this year, Chark would make a good alternative. Using the DLF Trade Analyzer, Chark is currently worth a mid-first round pick. Coincidentally that’s where the top receivers are being taken in rookie drafts according to our Rookie Draft App.

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Even if you missed out on CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy, you could still swing a deal with Chark if Jalen Reagor and Justin Jefferson aren’t high on your list. Chark is only a year or two older than all of them and, unlike most rookie receivers, has little in the way of competition for targets. He’s a good value as a WR2 target.

Dirty Kirk

https://twitter.com/rotowiremario/status/1279551295142191112?s=20

For a third-year, a second-round pick who’s improved statistically every year and is set to be high on the priority list of a pass-heavy scheme – Christian Kirk – isn’t getting nearly the same attention as you would think. Of course, it’s not every season where an elite receiver joins your ranks like DeAndre Hopkins did when he was traded to Arizona. It puts Kirks in an enviable position where he is set up for success while still flying under the radar.

Dynasty Impact: With the continued development of quarterback Kyler Murray and even coach Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, now is the time to start getting shares of the Arizona offense before it truly takes off. And for Kirk, he stands to be the best dynasty value on the entire offense. He won’t cost you an arm-and-a-leg like Hopkins, but he also isn’t in danger of retiring after this season like Larry Fitzgerald. Our DLF rankers have him as a low-end WR3 while the DLF Trade Analyzer shows him to be even cheaper than a player like Chark – meaning you could be picking towards the end of the first round of rookie drafts this year and use that pick on a veteran such as Kirk as opposed to the wild card of rookie receivers.

Like-New Jag

What if I told you a…
– 87th percentile speed
– 87th percentile height/adjusted speed
– 23 years old
– high 3rd round NFL draft capital
– entering year 2 of his NFL career

Can acquired as a throw in, or maybe even from your waiver wire…

I give you… TE Josh Oliver 👀 pic.twitter.com/fmLYxfcDts

— Alex Mountjoy (@AyeFLEX) July 4, 2020

As the tweet points out, Josh Oliver has been largely forgotten in dynasty circles. After being drafted in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft, seemingly nothing went right as Oliver was injured for most of the season and saw action in only four games. But with a whole off-season to rehab hamstring and back injuries, Oliver has been cleared for action and is back where he started as a promising young player.

Dynasty Impact: If you’ve kept up with this series, you’ll know that the rookie class of tight ends is not great and you’re better off targeting a veteran and Oliver is just another example. He may not be as cheap as a throw-in as the tweet suggests but he can be had for no higher than a fourth-round rookie pick. He’s just as young as some of the rookies in this class or no more than a year or two older. He has only veteran Tyler Eifert in front of him who is still 29 and that’s if Eifert’s gotten over his substantial injury history. They also guaranteed him just over $3 million for this season, hardly an amount to block Oliver from playing time. If you’re in the market for a cheap option at the position, you could do worse than rolling the dice on Oliver.

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Michael Moore

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Michael has played fantasy football for over 20 years when his mom funded his first team in the fourth grade. He’s contributed to various fantasy football publications and most recently spent five years writing for the Fantasy side of things at Pro Football Focus.