Understanding 2019 Defenses in a Historical Context: AFC and NFC East

Tom Kislingbury Posted On July 8, 2020

Team defense is very unstable in the NFL. We continually get caught out by assuming that last year’s top defense will be good again. In 2018, we expected the Jaguars to be elite again. Last season, we were high on the Bears. Going into 2020, many people think the Patriots’ defense is going to dominate again. These are all bad decisions.

In dynasty, we generally don’t use team defenses (or shouldn’t anyway) but understanding defensive context gives us some idea as to what to expect for both IDPs as well as teams going forward. So much of strength of schedule is built on how good teams were last season and so much of that was dependent on how good their defense was. If we can spot trends, then it gives us information about the future. With that in mind, this article will focus on team defensive trends rather than cumulative individual stats.

I’ll look at each team from 2019 and try to identify how good or bad they were against the context of the last decade. To do that, I’ve looked at every significant defensive stat and ranked the 320 teams from the last decade. So we can properly identify which defenses were good and bad – and not just see a small sample size of “best/worst in 2019”.

All ranks will be given against this backdrop, so 87/320 means that team was ranked 87th out of 320 teams in that particular category.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills were an interesting corollary to the Ravens. Both defenses were similarly excellent – but because the Ravens had a top offense and the Bills had Josh Allen, perceptions are very different.

Here are some standout stats:

259 points allowed (12/320).
4,772 offensive yards allowed (21/320).
4.8 yards per play (19/320).
3,123 passing yards allowed (22/320).
15 passing TDs allowed (10/320)
5.2 passing yards per attempt (9/320).
Just 23.6% of defense drives ended up allowing a score (3/320).

Sean McDermott has created such a good defense the team has been effective even with their offensive problems. Hopefully, he can sustain this, but this is a defense that is also likely to regress.

Dallas Cowboys

The 2019 Cowboys were a team built on disappointment. They led the league in offensive yards by a clear margin but finished with just an 8-8 record. Their defense was a top-quarter unit – but because they were unlucky with turnovers, it didn’t really matter.

They managed just 17 takeaways in 2019 (266/320).
Ten recovered fumbles (127/320) was fine.
But a measly seven interceptions (302/320) was a real killer.

If they manage another season of good-not-great defense but manage to get more picks than Byron Jones ever did, this could be a good unit.

Miami Dolphins

Ugh. I’m sorry Fins fans. This is going to be ugly for you.

The 2019 Dolphins were one of the worst defenses of the past decade. The 2011 Buccaneers, 2013 Vikings, and 2016 49ers are all up there too, but this unit was awful. Here’s a selection of bad indicators (deep breath):

494 points allowed (319/320).
6,364 yards allowed (307/320).
6.0 yards allowed per play (281/320).
Three recovered fumbles (308/320).
361 first downs allowed (301/320).
4,198 pass yards allowed (286/320)
7.4 yards allowed per pass attempt (309/320).
214 passing first downs allowed (277/320).
2,166 rushing yards allowed (289/320).
113 rushing first downs allowed (277/320).
1,084 penalty yards conceded (302/320).
Allowed points on 45.6% of drives (319/320).

On average, they allowed over 30 points, 398 yards, 23 first downs, 262 passing yards, 135 rushing yards and 70 penalty yards per game. There were mitigating factors of course. They deliberately gutted themselves of talent in an attempt to restart. Hopefully it works out for them.

The good news is next season is going to be better. The bad news is that they could improve drastically and still be a bottom-five defense.

New England Patriots

What a contrast. The 2019 Patriots were as different from their division rival the Dolphins as defenses can be. Without going into too much detail, the Patriots allowed about 17 fewer points per game.

The Patriots were clearly one of the best defenses of recent times. Here are some indicators of how good they were (deep breath):

225 points allowed (1/320).
4,414 yards allowed (6/320).
4.7 yards allowed per play (12/320).
36 turnovers (10/320).
261 first downs allowed (4/320).
303 completions allowed (28/320).
2,886 passing yards allowed (7/320).
13 passing TDs allowed (2/320).
25 interceptions (4/320).
5.0 yards per pass allowed (5/320).
150 passing first downs allowed (3/320)
Seven rushing TDs allowed (21/320).
72 rushing first downs allowed (25/320).

Spectacular.

Unfortunately, it’s enormously unsustainable to be that good. No defense has stayed on this level for two years straight since the Steelers in 2010/2011. As with all top defenses, this is a time to sell. The huge amount of interceptions is the most obvious regression point – but the overall level was so high it’s just not feasible to do it again.

New York Giants

The Giants well and truly earned their high draft pick last season. The defense struggled in pretty much all facets of the game.

451 points allowed (302/320).
6,037 yards (272/320).
343 first downs allowed (258/320).
369 completions allowed (243/320).
4,225 passing yards allowed (289/320).
7.1 yards per passing attempt allowed (285/320).
211 passing first downs allowed (270/320).
19 rushing TDs allowed (290/320).

This was just bad enough that it’s very possible they’re stuck in the same place again next season. The team has invested heavily into their defensive line and they’re actually decent against the run – but that’s not helpful in this era. Their inability to cover well allied with a mediocre pass rush is the problem.

New York Jets

The Jets were the most enigmatic of the AFC East defense in 2019. The Patriots and Bills were majestic. The Dolphins were atrocious. The Jets offense was laughable…but the defense was actually pretty good. Credit where it’s due – Gregg Williams did a fine job.

359 points allowed (156/320).
5,170 yards allowed (71/320).
5.0 yards per play (40/320).
302 first downs allowed (90/320).
3,779 passing yards allowed (169/320).
6.1 yards allowed per passing attempt (109/320).
187 passing first downs allowed (121/320).
1,391 rushing yards allowed (19/320).
3.3 yards allowed per rush (3/320).
75 rushing first downs allowed (37/320).

It might only last one more year (because it seems likely the Jets will blow it all up yet again after 2020) but this is a good defense and we can probably expect the same in 2020. If they somehow create a viable pass rush, there’s excellent potential.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles’ defense is famously built on generating pressure from the front four. In 2019, they were a top-five team in creating pressure. But it was also a defense that seemed to take a step back from their previous excellence.

354 points allowed (150/320).
5,307 offensive yards allowed (92/320).
5.5 yards allowed per play (170/320).
20 turnovers (219/320).
289 first downs allowed (52/320).
3,856 passing yards allowed (201/320).
6.3 yards allowed per passing attempt (159/320).
1,442 rushing yards allowed (33/320).
76 rushing first downs allowed (42/320).

It was mostly as you’d expect from a team with a very good defensive line but average talent elsewhere. They were tough to run on and created a lot of pressure – but it just couldn’t really stop the pass consistently. Expect some improvement for this defense with the newly retooled LB and CB positions.

Washington

It feels a bit like bullying, but this team truly was bad on both sides of the ball. The front seven has got a lot of hype for 2020 (particularly with drafting Chase Young) but even with the talent, they just did not play effectively in 2019. This was one of the worst 30 or 40 defenses of the past decade.

435 points allowed (282/320).
6,162 yards allowed (293/320).
354 first downs allowed (288/320).
371 receptions allowed (255/320).
35 receiving TDs allowed (311/320).
493 rushing attempts (297/320).
2,339 rushing yards allowed (310/320).
120 rushing first downs allowed (291/320).
Points allowed on 41.9% of drives (304/320).

If the likes of Jonathan Allen, Matt Ioannidis and Da’Ron Payne are all so good, how come everyone embarrassed this team on the ground?

With Young on board, the development of Montez Sweat, and a better LB situation, we can expect some improvement for 2020 but this is still likely to be an average defense at best. Don’t believe the hype about the front seven being the best in football.

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Tom Kislingbury

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Being from England Tom only discovered American Football in the late 90s. From there he's gone from casual defender to devoted obsessive and likes to delve into deep data primarily about defensive players. He spends his days trying to pretend the spreadsheets and graphs he makes about football are actually work for his day job. No-one is fooled.

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