
This is fantastic stuff. Great model and great explanation of how you are interpreting it. This is why I subscribe. I am about to begin a dynasty startup and just bumped Reagor up in my rankings a bit!
really interesting stuff. Any chance to get Isaiah Coulter added to this. He’s an interesting late round name I’d be curious to see where he fits with this analysis.
Awesome that’s really all I was hoping for. thanks!
I guess we’ll see how this pans out, but I don’t see Reagor or Aiyuk ever being anything special. Really surprised at these results.
Not sure how much to take from this, it already failed the first year with Slayton and McLaurin
I agree, this model also projected JJ Arcega higher than AJB!!
Thanks for your work on this! Can you clarify the returning OC variable? If this model projects likelihood of breakout for duration of the WR career – then are you saying that a WR who joins a team the year they change OC’s has significantly lower breakout chance for entire career moving forward? What if the new OC stays on for several years and works with the WR? I originally thought the model was looking at breakout probability for ONLY the WR rookie year. This would make the OC variable make more sense – but if this is predicting for whole WR career then I am struggling a bit to understand that. Thanks for explaining!