Dynasty League Football


2020 Rookie Wide Receiver Breakout Chances

How likely is it that each rookie wide receiver breaks out? Steve Gill’s model attempts to shed some light.

Brandon Aiyuk

How likely is it that each rookie wide receiver breaks out? Steve Gill's model attempts to shed some light.


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2020 Rookie Wide Receiver Breakout Chances
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Andrew Sama
2 years ago

This is fantastic stuff. Great model and great explanation of how you are interpreting it. This is why I subscribe. I am about to begin a dynasty startup and just bumped Reagor up in my rankings a bit!

Matthew Stafford
2 years ago

really interesting stuff. Any chance to get Isaiah Coulter added to this. He’s an interesting late round name I’d be curious to see where he fits with this analysis.

Matthew Stafford
Reply to  Stephen Gill
2 years ago

Awesome that’s really all I was hoping for. thanks!

matthew digiovanni
2 years ago

I guess we’ll see how this pans out, but I don’t see Reagor or Aiyuk ever being anything special. Really surprised at these results.

Alex King
2 years ago

Not sure how much to take from this, it already failed the first year with Slayton and McLaurin

Reply to  Alex King
2 years ago

I agree, this model also projected JJ Arcega higher than AJB!!

2 years ago

Thanks for your work on this! Can you clarify the returning OC variable? If this model projects likelihood of breakout for duration of the WR career – then are you saying that a WR who joins a team the year they change OC’s has significantly lower breakout chance for entire career moving forward? What if the new OC stays on for several years and works with the WR? I originally thought the model was looking at breakout probability for ONLY the WR rookie year. This would make the OC variable make more sense – but if this is predicting for whole WR career then I am struggling a bit to understand that. Thanks for explaining!

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