Dynasty League Football

Dynasty

2020 Rookie Wide Receiver Breakout Chances

How likely is it that each rookie wide receiver breaks out? Steve Gill’s model attempts to shed some light.

Brandon Aiyuk

How likely is it that each rookie wide receiver breaks out? Steve Gill's model attempts to shed some light.

GET IN THE GAME!

Gain Instant Access to this article and so much more.

A full year of access is only $49.99.

Try DLF Premium for only $7.99 with a Monthly Subscription.

Premium membership provides access to all of our awesome dynasty content for an entire year. You also gain access to the best dynasty fantasy football resources in the industry. Including...

• The best dynasty rankings in the industry
• Dynasty, Rookie & Superflex ADP
• Dynasty Trade Analyzer and other tools
• Our annual Dynasty & Rookie Draft Guides
• 365 days of content, tools, advice and support
• And so much more!

Join DLF Today!

Want more info about DLF Premium?
Find out more

Have questions or need some help?
Contact Us

Already a DLF Premium Member?
Log in now!

2020 Rookie Wide Receiver Breakout Chances
11 Comments
0 0 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
11 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Andrew Sama
1 year ago

This is fantastic stuff. Great model and great explanation of how you are interpreting it. This is why I subscribe. I am about to begin a dynasty startup and just bumped Reagor up in my rankings a bit!

Matthew Stafford
1 year ago

really interesting stuff. Any chance to get Isaiah Coulter added to this. He’s an interesting late round name I’d be curious to see where he fits with this analysis.

Matthew Stafford
Reply to  Stephen Gill
1 year ago

Awesome that’s really all I was hoping for. thanks!

matthew digiovanni
1 year ago

I guess we’ll see how this pans out, but I don’t see Reagor or Aiyuk ever being anything special. Really surprised at these results.

Alex King
1 year ago

Not sure how much to take from this, it already failed the first year with Slayton and McLaurin

dcragel
Reply to  Alex King
1 year ago

I agree, this model also projected JJ Arcega higher than AJB!!

jeffwalch
1 year ago

Thanks for your work on this! Can you clarify the returning OC variable? If this model projects likelihood of breakout for duration of the WR career – then are you saying that a WR who joins a team the year they change OC’s has significantly lower breakout chance for entire career moving forward? What if the new OC stays on for several years and works with the WR? I originally thought the model was looking at breakout probability for ONLY the WR rookie year. This would make the OC variable make more sense – but if this is predicting for whole WR career then I am struggling a bit to understand that. Thanks for explaining!

To Top