Is Kedon Slovis the next Joe Burrow?

AJ Fernandez Posted On July 6, 2020

The LSU Tigers set an incredible amount of records during their 2019 campaign. Quarterback Joe Burrow was responsible for the most total touchdowns in an FBS season (60) while setting LSU records for yards, completion percentage (Comp%) and completions. For the first time in SEC history, a team had a 4,000-yard passer, two 1,000-yard receivers, and a 1,000-yard rusher in the same season. Additionally, Burrow may have had the most efficient season of all time.

The counting stats are eye-popping, but the best number is typically glossed over. Burrow’s 76.3% Comp% (78.3% in the regular season) was the highest in LSU history and the highest in Peter Howard’s (@pahowdy) college player database dating back to the 2003 NFL draft class.

Completion Percentage is King

Any record is impressive, but why is this especially awesome? Comp% is both sticky year to year regardless of situation and predictive of future NFL success. More recently, Josh Hermsmeyer (@friscojosh) introduced an extension of Comp% called completion percentage over expected, or CPOE. In his article from 2019, Hermsmeyer explains that adding a depth of target component to Comp% would be ideal to identify quarterbacks who not only complete passes but also complete more difficult passes.

An expected Comp% is calculated for each depth of target from -5 to 50 yards, since completing a 50-yard pass is more challenging than completing a bubble screen behind the line of scrimmage. CPOE also adjusts for college competition, which is valuable since talent level can be very different from conference to conference. He found that college CPOE is the best predictor of NFL yards per attempt, which is associated with NFL wins. If A = B and B = C… you get the point.

In the interest of full disclosure, I do not have access to official college CPOE data with depth of target baked in. What I do have is a “hacked” version of CPOE, which is a player’s Comp% over conference average (hCPOE). Unfortunately, it does not take depth of target into account, but as stated earlier even Comp% alone is a strong predictor of future success.

A Challenger Emerges

Joe Burrow had the highest hCPOE of any quarterback in Howard’s database at +19.6%. This means his Comp% was 19.6% more than the average 2019 SEC quarterback. That is an absolutely insane number. Depth of target is not baked in, but he did have the second-highest yards per attempt in 2019 with 10.8, so this wasn’t a dink and dunk situation.

Burrow is an excellent prospect and despite only one season playing at that level (at 22 years old) his performance is highly indicative of future success. But what if there is another Burrow brewing, who still hasn’t become a household name? I think there is and his name is Kedon Slovis.

Slovis showed up at Southern California in 2019 as a fairly unheralded prospect, earning a three-star grade from most recruiting services. He was buried on the depth chart behind incumbent JT Daniels who arrived in 2018 as the second-rated quarterback in the nation. When Daniels got injured in week one, Slovis was summoned to take his place. Kudos to 247sports.com recruiting analyst Greg Biggins who wrote that Slovis was a “smart quarterback with an advanced feel for the position who could surprise at the next level.”

All he did was destroy Pac-12 defenses from the jump, save Clay Helton’s job, and post an outrageous 3,502-30-9 line as a true freshman. But the stat that really surprises is his 71.9% Comp%. How good was this? The highest recorded number in Howard’s database for an 18-year-old is 69%. Slovis beat that by almost three points. His hCPOE was +7.6% which dwarfs the +2.7% put up by fellow freshman stud Sam Howell at UNC. His yards per attempt was also 11th highest in the country at 8.9.

Rewriting History

The early-career numbers are outstanding but I wanted to know what that means for Slovis’ future ceiling. I calculated the average difference in Comp% from a college quarterback’s first year and his last year. Many quarterbacks see snaps for the first time as juniors or later, so they are likely closer to being a finished product. With this in mind, I also calculated the difference if the quarterback registered a Comp% as an 18 or 19-year-old, and the difference for quarterbacks with an appearance as an 18-year-old.

	N	Average Comp% first season	Average Comp% last season	Average difference
All quarterbacks	186	59.4%	62.7%	+3.3%
First appearance as 18 or 19-year-old	103	58.9%	63.3%	+4.4%
First appearance as 18-year-old	40	57.8%	64.1%	+6.3%

Data from Peter Howard’s MS database.

It’s not news to say quarterbacks get better at completing passes as they mature, but quarterbacks who start early improve even more than those that start later. They initially complete a smaller proportion of passes, but they finish at a higher level. This makes intuitive sense because quarterbacks who start young probably have more natural talent to unlock than those who have to wait their turn.

Based on this data, if Slovis increases his Comp% at an average clip, his last season would approach 78%. Since the Pac-12 typically has an average Comp% higher than the SEC, Slovis may not reach the heights of a +19.6 hCPOE. However, he would at least have a shot at Burrow’s record, which is an incredible thing to write.

I believe Slovis showed enough during his freshman season to be considered one of the absolute best quarterbacks in the country and a strong candidate for the top overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft. In devy leagues, he is my QB3 behind only future top picks Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields.