Danger Rankings: Players Who Could See the Bottom Fall Out
Who are the most dangerous players in fantasy football? I suppose it depends on your definition of dangerous, but for my purposes here, I’m going to look at players whose ADP seems to be falling off of a cliff.
I used DLF’s ADP over time tool to look at players with an ADP in free fall over the last three years. This might be your last chance to move any of these players for a substantial return. If you don’t get motivated to move them today, you might have to let them die on your roster as they may never see their prices this high again.
Alshon Jeffery, WR PHI
I intentionally omitted older players from the danger rankings, as most savvy dynasty owners know who is getting older and poised to fall off the age cliff. One exception was the Eagles’ Jeffrey. Entering his age-30 season, Jeffery’s ADP has been in steady decline since 2014 but has seen a massive drop off over the last three or four years. Injuries have played a part in Jeffrey’s ADP drop off, as he has missed 20 games over the previous five seasons.
Despite remaining atop the depth chart, the Eagles have recently addressed the position via the draft and free agency. Using first and second-round picks at the position over the last two seasons on Jalen Reagor and JJ Arcega-Whiteside, respectively, while adding depth later in the draft too, the Eagles’ youth movement is pushing Jeffery out of the door. They also brought in aging speedsters DeSean Jackson and Marquise Goodwin to compete for targets too. Check out the DLF trade finder to see what people have recently gotten in return for Jeffrey.
Three year ADP drop: -131
ADP drop from all-time high: -150
Corey Davis, WR TEN
This hurts me more than I could ever put into words. I love Corey Davis, but the facts are the facts, and he hasn’t lived up to expectations thus far after being the fifth pick in the NFL draft. AJ Brown managed to succeed in the same system, so that excuse is out the window for Davis. If you can trade him, this may be his last chance to return any value as I have recently seen Davis traded for as little as a fifth and sixth-round pick. Woof. Hopefully, he lands with another team in 2021, and they can find a way to unlock his potential.
Three year ADP drop: -107
ADP drop from all-time high: -107
Aaron Rodgers, QB GB
How the mighty have fallen. Rodgers was the 45th overall pick as the QB1 in single-quarterback leagues as recent as 2018. He then fell to QB5 in 2019 and is now QB13 in 2020. With the Packers’ drafting of Jordan Love, it’s hard to imagine Rodgers will ever see his ADP climb higher than it is currently, no matter how good of a season he has at 36 years old. In superflex leagues, you can still get a decent return for Rodgers, and it might be better to pull the trigger and get out of the Aaron Rodgers business a year or two early rather than a year or two too late.
Three year ADP drop: -86
ADP drop from all-time high: -104
Duke Johnson, RB HOU
Shockingly, Johnson is only 26 years old with one RB1 season under his belt. Duke has been well-liked in fantasy PPR circles for some time but has rarely done enough to live up to owners’ expectations. With the Texans acquiring David Johnson to be their lead back in 2020, it’s likely Duke Johnson fails to get the volume needed to be worth anything going forward. If he doesn’t get the workload we’d like to see, he could vanish off the fantasy radar. Truth be told, if David Johnson were to get injured again, Duke Johnson could inherit a monster workload, and might be worth attempting to trade for at his rock-bottom prices.
Three year ADP drop: -68
ADP drop from all-time high: -96
Le’Veon Bell, RB NYJ
Remember when Bell was almost an automatic league winner on draft day? Well, those days are long gone. Shocking (not shocking) what the Adam Gase effect can do to a player, right? I’m looking at you, DeVante Parker and Kenyan Drake. Bell is only 28 and took an entire season off, and is likely to be playing for a different team and, more importantly, a different coach in 2021 and beyond. If it plays out like that, he may be able to recoup a little bit of his fantasy value in the future, but another lackluster year with the Jets should keep his ADP on the slide as he wraps up his career.
Three year ADP drop: -54
ADP drop from all-time high: -55
Brandin Cooks, WR HOU
I’ve never been a Cooks fan, but his ADP has steadily floated between 16 and 31 over the bulk of his career. Too rich for my blood, but he has been productive with four top-15 finishes over six seasons in the NFL. His ADP has now fallen to a career-low 87th, and if he has another let-down season, we’ll likely see his ADP drop further. The lack of continuity has to begin to affect him at some point, too, as he finds himself on his fourth team in five seasons.
Three year ADP drop: -70
ADP drop from all-time high: -71
Todd Gurley, RB ATL
Gurley was a hot commodity coming into the league, but a recent knee injury while falling off the face of the earth in the NFL playoffs have owners jumping off the ship instead of sinking with it. Getting cut by the Rams doesn’t help either, but finding himself with a Falcons team with no competition at the position presents an opportunity for Gurley (and his ADP) to rebound. If he fails to bounce back, his ADP will never be this high again.
Three year ADP drop: -30
ADP drop from all-time high: -44
Melvin Gordon, RB DEN
Any time I get a chance to trash Melvin Gordon, I’ll take it. Gordon finds himself in Denver after a four-year run with the Chargers that featured some notable lows. Those include a touchdown-less rookie campaign and a four-game holdout last year. Signing with the Broncos, Gordon now finds himself in a committee backfield with established starter Phillip Lindsey. Gordon might end up seeing a little uptick in receptions, but his rushing numbers and future ADP will likely keep falling.
Three year ADP drop: -29
ADP drop from all-time high: -29
Keenan Allen, WR LAC
Allen’s ADP is on a bit of a mini-slide, and given the circumstances surrounding the Chargers’ roster, the 28-year old’s ADP may continue on this downward trend. Tyrod Taylor and rookie Justin Herbert are probably not going to give Allen the nine targets per game he saw from Philip Rivers. Mike Williams’ development, Austin Ekeler’s emergence, and Hunter Henry’s return from injury should all cut into Allen’s volume in 2020 and beyond.
Three year ADP drop: -17
ADP drop from all-time high: -23
Odell Beckham Jr, WR CLE
While not the largest drop on this list, Beckham is the most concerning. After an amazing rookie year, OBJ saw a four-year run as the unquestionable top dynasty player in all of fantasy football. A list of injuries, off-and-on-field issues, underperformance, and a recent core muscle surgery have seen the perennial top overall fantasy draft pick fall to wide receiver nine. If Beckham lets owners down again, we might see the unthinkable as he could fall into the fourth round next year.
Three year ADP drop: -22
ADP drop from all-time high: -22
Julio Jones, WR ATL
Ageism is alive and well in the dynasty community. As Julio Jones enters his age-31 season, it’s safe to assume that his ADP will continue to fall. As one of the best in the game, it’s sad to see, but the reality is, the NFL isn’t long for players approaching their mid-30s. If you have Jones rostered, this might be the last opportunity you’ll have to get a decent return for him in a trade. The DLF trade finder can give you an idea of what you can expect in return for Jones, and you can rest assured that you’re moving on from a depreciating asset.
Three year ADP drop: -23
ADP drop from all-time high: -26
DeAndre Hopkins, WR ARI
Departing a Texans team where he saw nearly ten targets per game, Hopkins now finds himself with a Cardinals team that likes to spread the ball around. With little competition in Houston, Hopkins will now lineup alongside Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk, as well as KeeSean Johnson, Andy Isabella, and Hakeem Butler in Arizona. Hopkins’ talent is undeniable, but there is no way he sees the same volume in Arizona that he saw in Houston, and a year from now, he’ll be 29, approaching the proverbial cliff for fantasy owners.
Three year ADP change: +2
ADP drop from all-time high: -4
It would have been easy to focus on aging players, but I hope this look at younger, fantasy-relevant players brought some concerning ADP data to your attention. If you love any of the above players and believe their ADP drop is an aberration, then use this information as an opportunity to buy low. On the other hand, don’t ignore the trends we are seeing with players’ ADPs. There is a reason most of these players have seen their ADPs fall over the last few years, and for the most part, they are valid reasons. It is more likely than not that we see these players fall into the fantasy abyss.
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