Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Isaiah Coulter, WR HOU

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.

Name: Isaiah Coulter

Position: Wide receiver

Pro Team: Houston Texans

College Team: University of Rhode Island Rams

Draft Status: Round five, 171st overall

VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS

COMBINE REVIEW

• Height: 6’2”
• Weight: 198 pounds
• Arms: 31 3/4”
• Hands: 9”
• 40-yard dash: 4.45 seconds
• Vertical jump: 36 inches
• Broad jump: 121 inches
• Three-cone drill: 7.28 seconds
• 20-yard shuttle: 4.62 seconds

Coulter has a long and lean frame and tested reasonably well at the NFL Combine. He’s a long-strider with good speed and average explosion, and that showed up in the drills there. Nearly every receiver at the Combine this year tested very poorly in the agility drills, so I’m taking Coulter’s results with a grain of salt – but his were truly horrific. His shuttle was in the first percentile.

strengths

• Tantalizing size/speed combination
• Glider with long speed who separates well vertically and stacks defensive backs nicely
• Solid foot quickness – displayed ability to beat press coverage off the line with good releases
• Outstanding hands outside his frame
• Tremendous body control and leaping ability
• Can line up at X receiver as well as off the line of scrimmage, and excelled out of the slot
• Raw traits are there for Coulter to develop into a starting X receiver
• Performed well in his three games against FBS competition – UConn in 2018 (10/156/1), Ohio in 2019 (2/53/1), and Virginia Tech in 2019 (9/152/0)

weaknesses

• Played against weaker competition (FCS)
• Did not consistently play with high effort; relied somewhat on his athleticism to win his matchups, so he is still quite raw, especially as a route runner
• Very lean frame
• Needs to improve in contested catch situations
• Does not make people miss in the open field often and frequently goes down on first contact
• Did not consistently uncover quickly against man coverage
• Suffers from occasional concentration drops

OPPORTUNITIES

No matter how you slice it, it’s difficult to envision a scenario in which Coulter sees many targets early on in his career, but the ambiguity around this passing game leaves a glimmer of hope for Coulter’s immediate projection.

Kenny Stills and Keke Coutee have both fallen in and out of favor with Bill O’Brien, so it’s possible Coulter inches his way up the depth chart if O’Brien moves one or both of these players at some point before or during the season.

The other aspect to keep tabs on is that each player ahead of him on the depth chart missed time in 2019 due to injury, and Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks have been especially injury-riddled. Coulter could ascend simply based on factors outside his control.

THREATS

Despite the hopeful optimism laid out above, simply put, Coulter is unlikely to see much of the field in his rookie season.

He’s behind Fuller, Cooks, Stills, and Randall Cobb on the depth chart. Former dynasty darling Coutee could potentially be on the move, but assuming he’s still on the roster, he and Coulter will likely be battling it out for the fifth spot in the pecking order at the receiver position. Coulter and DeAndre Carter should hold down the last spots on the depth chart.

SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS

The offense should look drastically different than in years past. Houston is going to have to replace DeAndre Hopkins and his 150 targets somehow, but the Texans added Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb this off-season.

The strange thing about the collection of talent at wide receiver for Houston is that many of them are cut from the same cloth. Fuller, Cooks, and Stills are all speedsters that excel downfield. Cobb is the underneath target that can operate in the middle of the field. But this offense lacks a true X receiver with DeAndre Hopkins now on the Arizona Cardinals. Could Coulter step up and play that role? While unlikely in year one, it’s not outside the realm of possibilities.

LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS

This is where I’m hopeful.

Coulter is strictly an upside projection. It’s rare that we see FCS receivers declare for the draft early, but Coulter did just that after three years at small-school Rhode Island. He is the biggest receiver on the Texans, and while he’s just an inch taller than Kenny Stills, the 6’2” Coulter actually plays big, flashing high-point ability and good run after catch skills. He’s the type of player more likely to fizzle out than hit, but if he hits big, his upside is nearly as high as any non-first round receiver in this deep class.

I am cognizant of the fact that Coulter is a long shot to become relevant, but I repeatedly gamble on players with physical tools and traits. His future value will depend on his work ethic and desire to develop, but the potential is there.

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON

Allen Hurns.

Hurns and Coulter have nearly identical frames and play similar styles of football. Hurns was a bit more refined coming out of Miami in 2014, but went undrafted anyway because of the strength of that historic class.

Hurns has very good hands, possesses strong body control, and is a very competitive player that never shies away from contact. Hurns is also a good leaper and excels at catching the ball outside his frame. Although he’s a limited athlete and became hamstrung by some injuries, he posted over 1,000 receiving yards and ten touchdowns in his second career season. With some development, Coulter could have a Hurns-like impact.

I also think late-career Brandon Lloyd is the type of ceiling Coulter could possess. Lloyd had incredibly sticky hands and flashed the ability to dominate for stretches, but didn’t really put it all together outside of one or two seasons late in his career. He had some of the craziest body control and circus catches I’ve ever seen but was really inconsistent on a route-to-route basis until his age-29 season.

PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE

Surprisingly, Coulter went completely undrafted in all ten May 1QB and all six superflex rookie mocks, according to our Rookie ADP. If we look at ADP from rookie drafts in real 1QB, non-IDP dynasty leagues hosted on MFL, we see Coulter land as the WR21 and the 48th player overall (4.12), with a range between 38 and 59. In superflex leagues, Coulter is actually being selected at the exact same pick (48), albeit with a wider pick range distribution. Based on this data from real leagues, Coulter is a very late fourth-round selection in almost every league format, and I consider him a great investment at that cost due to his upside.