Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Joshua Kelley, RB LAC

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.

Name: Joshua Kelley

Position: Running back

Pro Team: Los Angeles Chargers

College Team: UCLA Bruins

Draft Status: Round four, 112th overall

VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS

COMBINE REVIEW

• Height: 5’11”
• Weight: 212 pounds
• Arms: 31 5/8”
• Hands: 9 5/8”
• 40-yard dash: 4.49 seconds
• Vertical jump: 31 inches
• Broad jump: 121 inches
• Three-cone drill: 6.95 seconds
• 20-yard shuttle: 4.28 seconds
• Bench press: 23 reps

Kelley tested reasonably well at the NFL Combine, and certainly better than I anticipated he would entering the event. He ran faster than expected and had an impressive showing in the three-cone, especially for someone with limited change of direction skills on the field. Compounding some of the confusion in his testing – he was well above average in the broad jump but well below average in the vertical.

Strengths

• Physical back who runs with good, low pad level, and above-average contact balance
• Highly effective as a north-south interior runner who maximizes nearly all of his runs
• Well-rounded overall; very competitive player
• Not a blazer but has decent play speed
• Very productive in college
• Strong hands and catches the ball outside his frame
• Good ball security – just three fumbles on 492 touches in his UCLA career

weaknesses

• Might be “just a guy”
• Elusiveness and agility are average at best
• Inconsistent vision – can create for himself, but sometimes fails to see holes developing
• Adequate receiver but not a threat
• Mediocre pass protector
• Does not accelerate quickly after being contacted
• Not a particularly creative runner – can struggle outside of structure

OPPORTUNITIES

Melvin Gordon has been a mainstay in the Chargers’ backfield since his first-round selection in 2015 but leaves 204 touches on the table (in 12 games) for someone to inherit. Gordon’s 17 touches per game will be divvied up among the running backs on the roster, but Austin Ekeler won’t automatically assume the lion’s share of the incremental work – he already had 224 total touches in 2019. This is where Kelley comes in.

Kelley profiles best as an early-down member of a committee. Ekeler is the far superior talent and has the pass-catching work locked down, but Kelley could carve out a significant role on early downs and in the red zone. It’s quite reasonable that he could carry the ball 100-140 times with 30+ targets if he wins the number two role in the offense. Ekeler’s rushing share from a year ago with two or more targets a game seems like an optimistic but achievable projection, with upside for more if Ekeler falters in the lead role or succumbs to an unfortunate injury.

THREATS

The biggest threat to Kelley’s role is the aforementioned Ekeler. I am assuming that Ekeler will see an uptick in carries and a slight downtick in targets and receptions, but there is a very feasible scenario in which he takes much more of Gordon’s leftover share than I am anticipating. This would relegate Kelley, even in the number two role, to little more than a rotational bench player.

However, the caveat to all of this is the possibility that Kelley doesn’t win the backup role. The other major threat to Kelley’s work is Justin Jackson, who has been a personal favorite for a few years. Jackson hasn’t been given much opportunity at the NFL level, but he’s been effective in limited showings. I would assume that Kelley’s draft capital and frame make him more likely to inherit the back end of the timeshare role with Ekeler, but if Jackson outplays him in camp and the preseason, Kelley could start the season as the third back on the depth chart. I believe people are dismissing Jackson too quickly.

SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS

It’s fair to expect the offense to look drastically different than in years past.

Philip Rivers has left town to play for the Indianapolis Colts after nearly two decades, and Tyrod Taylor is first up in his stead. Taylor has long been an underrated quarterback and has been efficient at nearly every stop throughout his career, but has not supported many high-end fantasy producers because of his low-volume offenses. We also know that mobile quarterbacks tend to check down to their running backs less because of their ability to take off and run. This lowers Kelley’s floor a bit.

However, I think the most likely scenario for Kelley is that he wins the backup role to Ekeler and splits early-down work with the incumbent while rotating into some red zone and goal-line packages. I wouldn’t recommend him as an immediate starter, but I think he may have flex value at some point this year – assuming he beats out Jackson.

Of course, most expect Justin Herbert to eventually wrest the starting role from Taylor, and this will change the outlook of the offense as a whole, although it likely won’t be too dramatically different in 2020.

LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS

I am skeptical on Kelley long-term, and it really has nothing to do with Taylor, Herbert, or any of the quarterbacks. My personal philosophy is to really only invest in first or second-day running backs in fantasy, and I never want to be buying players with lower [or no] draft capital past their first contracts. Kelley may return immediate value at his current valuation, but I don’t view him as an above-average three-down player, which makes his skill set somewhat expendable.

Kelley isn’t a bad player, but there is so much talent at the position across the league right now. Perhaps his best-case scenario turns out to be a Carlos Hyde-type career, which would be a terrific return on a third-round rookie pick. But I’d be selling once he shows a dramatic increase in value. I think the most likely outcome for his career is a short-term starter and long-time committee member.

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON

Joshua Kelley reminds me a lot of Mike Davis, which isn’t a high-end comparison, but Davis is a good pass catcher and a capable between-the-tackles runner with moderate wiggle, good power, and good balance. They both profiled as committee backs with workhorse potential if all broke right. Davis never really got his shot, but Kelley might in the event of an Ekeler injury.

Another parallel for Kelley is Jamaal Williams. As mentioned above, I think Kelley could perform admirably as a spot starter, but I do believe his ultimate role will be as a committee member – just like Williams. Kelley is more athletic and a bit more natural as a runner, but they are similar style of players. Williams is a better pass protector at this point in his career.

PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE

According to our Rookie ADP, Kelley is the 30th player off the board (3.06) in 1QB leagues, going off the board as early as 25th and as late as 37th across our ten June rookie mocks. This places him at the RB13 in the class, sandwiched between Anthony McFarland and DeeJay Dallas. Kelley is the 3.09 in our Superflex Rookie ADP (33 overall).

If we look at ADP from rookie drafts in real 1QB, non-IDP dynasty leagues hosted on MFL, we see Kelley land as the RB12 and the 27th player overall (3.03), with a range between 23 and 35. If we perform the same exercise for superflex leagues, we see Kelley fall to 30 overall. He’s a third-round selection in almost every league format, and I consider him a worthwhile investment at that cost.