Superflex Strategy: Always Have a Backup Plan, Part Two
If these last few months have taught us anything, it’s to always expect the unexpected. While we cannot predict the future, we should always be prepared with a contingency plan. This sentiment is no more important than when addressing the quarterback position in a superflex league.
Unfamiliar with superflex? In the simplest terms, it’s a dynasty league which gives each franchise the option of starting two quarterbacks in their weekly lineups. It adds an extra layer of strategy to the mix and, in my opinion, should be the preferred format for dynasty leagues. Once you go superflex, a single-quarterback league will seem boring and redundant.
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Uncertainty is the only certainty there is, and knowing how to live with insecurity is the only security.”
-John Allen Paulos
In this current COVID-19 climate, where infection could result in quarantine for NFL players, the backup quarterback position becomes even more crucial in reality and superflex dynasty football. Look no further than Ezekiel Elliot’s recent coronavirus diagnosis to realize this will be unlike any NFL season we’ve ever seen.
The second iteration of this superflex strategy series discusses two more reserve quarterbacks who should be acquired as soon as possible by those superflex dynasty owners rostering their starting counterparts.
(All ADP data is from the DLF Championship Series presented by SafeLeagues while trades are courtesy of the DLF Trade Finder for 12-team superflex leagues).
Nick Mullens, SF (ADP: 302.19; QB51)
SF Starter: Jimmy Garoppolo (ADP: 80.6; QB22)
It seems the fantasy football community is undervaluing Garoppolo for this upcoming season. In the DLF Championship Series, he is being drafted after Drew Lock, Ryan Tannehill, and rookie Justin Herbert. All the San Francisco starter did last season was finish as a high-end QB2 (QB14) while leading his team within striking distance of the Lombardi Trophy. Yet, when you realize the signal-caller is only two years removed from a grade 3 MCL tear, the slide in value makes sense. In fact, 2019 was the first year Garoppolo started all 16 games in a season.
While there is a unique buying opportunity for Garoppolo, you’ll want to invest in Nick Mullens as an insurance policy. Mullens went to San Francisco as an undrafted free agent in 2017 but did not get his opportunity until 2018. When pressed into duty, he threw for 2,277 yards, 13 touchdowns, and finished as a QB1 in five of his eight starts. In even better news for his dynasty prospects, the 25 year-old is a restricted free agent next season. If given a chance to improve on past performances in 2020, he could be given a chance as a starter elsewhere come 2021.
Trade Value
According to the DLF Trade Finder, Mullens can be acquired for what amounts to free in a superflex league. It’s baffling you can acquire a player who’s had tangible success in the past few years for players who still have some name recognition, but very little actual production. Darwin Thompson and Laquon Treadwell both found themselves as the darlings of the dynasty hype machine but have yet to live up to the fanfare.
The DLF Trade Analyzer demonstrates how criminally undervalued the 49ers’ backup is in the dynasty community as he’s currently QB49 in our rankings. Mullens is essentially a free space on your bingo card which can be acquired by shipping off a post-hype Rapunzel-like Thompson or Treadwell. Please note, Mullens’ specific value will be based on both the competitiveness of your league and the dynasty prowess of the opposing owner in the negotiations. For example, I sent proposals in three different superflex leagues of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Bo Scarbrough, and a 2021 fourth straight up for Mullens and was immediately rebuffed.
The Southern Miss alum is a player you must roster if you’re counting on Jimmy G as your QB2 in a Superflex league and is a great end-of-the-bench flier to acquire even sans the former Patriot. Personally, I’ve traded my only Garoppolo share but will be looking to squeeze the final juices of value out of my players on the cut threshold in an attempt to acquire Mullens.
Jeff Driskel, DEN (ADP: 327.67; QB63)
DEN Starter: Drew Lock (ADP: 64.1; QB17)
The Broncos selections of receivers Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler with their first two draft picks have caused the Drew Lock hype train to run off the rails. The Mizzou alum is being selected with the 64th overall pick ahead of Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo, Sam Darnold, and first-round selection Justin Herbert in the DLF Championship Series.
In his rookie campaign, Lock strained his thumb in training camp but returned from IR to go on an impressive five-game run (100/156, 1,020 yards, seven TDs, three INTs). Despite the strong stats and record (4-1), the former Tiger’s position as Denver’s franchise quarterback is anything but guaranteed.
As mentioned in part one regarding PJ Walker, the first handful of starts for a rookie quarterback are not always indicative of long-term success. Think of a rookie pitcher in baseball; once the opposition is able to study your tendencies, they can enact a proper counter-attack. How a young player adjusts to a more prepared defense makes the difference between a flash-in-the-pan and top tier starter.
If Lock ends up becoming the former, then you’ll need a backup plan. Enter Jeff Driskel. Driskel isn’t a flashy pick, but a necessity in our new normal. The Florida alum started three weeks for the Lions last season finishing as QB13, QB5, and QB14 respectively. Again, it’s nothing to write home about, but he showcased the ability to use the offensive talent at his disposal to put up average fantasy numbers – a desired trait in both real and fantasy football.
Trade Value
The DLF Trade Finder shows the Denver backup quarterback can be acquired for as little as a 2022 fifth or 2023 fourth-round rookie selection. As someone with Lock shares, I would not pay any more than this to acquire his services. More than likely, your league-mate holding Driskel will drop him at roster cutdown day. Conversely, if you have Driskel rostered sans Lock, hold out as long as you can for a fourth-round pick.
Disagree with any of my advice? Want me to profile any other backup QBs in a future article? Please find me on Twitter @joshbrickner and/or reach out in the comments.
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