Previewing the 2021, 2022, and 2023 Rookie Classes

There are certain inflection points during the calendar year where we see clear opportunities to add or subtract value to our respective dynasty teams.

The start of the NFL regular season is the obvious one. We finally get a chance to see our favorite players in action for the first time in months, and fast or slow starts can create buying or selling opportunities as value becomes more fluid. There are other less significant points in the year, like the beginning of off-season activities, the trade deadline in your leagues (if you have one), the NFL Combine, and so on. But the NFL Draft causes the biggest fluctuations in value, and rookie drafts and auctions often spur the most activity in dynasty leagues, with managers evaluating their rosters and making decisions on how to proceed.

Many dynasty analysts speak through the lens of competing or rebuilding, and this basic framework is important context for how many fantasy players develop their strategies. Rookie drafts and auctions are the single biggest opportunities to add assets and value to your teams, and as such, it’s important to know what assets are available each year. By the time April and May roll around, even the casual dynasty player typically has a good understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the current rookie class if they’re paying attention. But just as important is to have a grasp on what the strengths and weaknesses of future classes are. Most leagues have future draft picks available for trade, and knowing which classes are stronger in certain position groups can help a manager strategize ahead of time.

What I hope to do in this piece is to articulate which of the next three rookie classes appear to be strong in each skill position group, and then I’ll highlight some key names to monitor.

A Bird’s Eye View

The 2020 class was strong at running back and wide receiver, but for different reasons. The top-end running backs in this year’s class were terrific prospects, but the depth was somewhat lacking after some players opted to return to school. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the receiver class had incredible depth but had few elite stars at the top. Both can be considered strong overall groups — and they were, which is why this class was touted for so long — but for very different reasons. I think this is an important distinction to make.

I don’t want to bog this article down with data, but I think it’s important to look at the devy landscape from a macro perspective first. To do so, we’ll look at DLF’s Top 50 Devy Rankings. There are more than 50 players tallied below because not all players overlap between individual rankers.

Naturally, players who will be eligible for the NFL Draft earlier are typically ranked higher, since they will be available for our dynasty teams sooner. Therefore, it makes sense that the distribution of players is skewed towards 2021. We also see a fairly even distribution between running backs and receivers in each class. But we need to separate out the top players into the quartiles in which they’re ranked in order to determine where the strengths of each class lie.

Some quick sorting and conditional formatting later, and the strengths immediately pop out. These are my personal devy ranks and not those of our staff. What should stand out right away is how many wide receivers in this upcoming class are in the first couple rounds of my rankings, and that we shouldn’t expect many impact running backs outside the top few next year.

Also, these tables don’t mean that I think the 2023 class is terrible. Again, players who will be eligible for the NFL Draft earlier are ranked higher because they will be available for our dynasty teams sooner.

Overview

If you’re looking for the punchline and aren’t interested in a deep dive, it’s this:

2021: Another terrific class.

QB: High-end talent and moderate depth.

RB: Top-heavy. Committee backs and role players behind the top few.

WR: High-end talent and extreme depth (think 2020, but with better talent at the top).

TE: Three elite talents and moderate depth.

2022: QB-heavy class, but weaker across the board everywhere else.

QB: High-end talent and some exciting players with upside behind them.

RB: Very little to get excited about, but good depth. Littered with players we’ll consider JAGs in five years.

WR: Strength of the class. One true star and some good ancillary pieces with upside.

TE: One exciting player and some upside, but not inspiring overall.

2023: Early, but looks exciting.

QB: Two future stars.

RB: Strength of the class. A couple of elite talents and strong depth.

WR: Dynamic talent at the top and some exciting upside in the tiers below.

TE: Two five-stars headline the position group.

If you’re interested in a deep dive, read on.

The Position Groups

I’ll dig into each position group for each class below, but I’ll only touch on some of the most notable names. All graphics are my personal tiers. For full DLF rankings, head to our team’s devy positional rankings.

2021 Quarterbacks

The class is headlined by Clemson’s all-world talent Trevor Lawrence, but dual-threat Ohio State star Justin Fields is not far behind. These two should be among the first couple of picks in superflex drafts next spring.

Gaining ground quickly is North Dakota State redshirt sophomore Trey Lance, who dominated his competition so badly it’s laughable. Lance threw for 28 touchdowns to zero interceptions as a redshirt freshman and added another 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns as a rusher. If he continues to develop, we’re looking at another early first-round pick.

Other quarterbacks I like at this point in the process include Georgia’s Jamie Newman and Iowa State’s Brock Purdy, among others.

2021 Running Backs

The headliners in this group are all players who were eligible for the 2020 draft, which is unusual. Clemson’s Travis Etienne, Oklahoma State’s Chuba Hubbard, and Najee Harris (Alabama) have all demonstrated ability on all three downs and should be early selections in next year’s draft. Etienne brings tremendous balance and acceleration, Hubbard has elite top-end speed, and Harris is a bruiser with soft hands.

Behind them, we have Journey Brown (Penn State) and Kenneth Gainwell (Memphis). At this point, I cannot envision any other runners in this class breaking into the first round of next year’s rookie drafts – even in 1QB leagues – although we always see running backs creep up boards post-draft.

Following the top four, we have a tier of backs with some question marks. Zamir White, Max Borghi, Kylin Hill, CJ Verdell, Trey Sermon, and Keaontay Ingram are some of the more notable names to remember. White has major injury concerns but may be the most talented of these runners, and Ingram has the highest upside as an inconsistent player with a complete skill-set. Borghi may profile as a satellite back at best, and the trio of Hill, Verdell, and Sermon are good players but likely committee backs at the next level.

2021 Wide Receivers

Man. For all the hype the 2020 receiver class got, the 2021 crop looks stronger at the top and potentially just as deep. The 2021 class is headlined by the dynamic trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Rondale Moore, and Rashod Bateman, but the second tier of receivers is formidable as well. In fact, of the top 12 players in our current devy ADP, eight of them are 2021 wide receivers.

Even behind the elite aforementioned trio, we have several future superstars in the making. My next tier consists of Jaylen Waddle, Tamorrion Terry, Seth Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tylan Wallace, and Devonta Smith. Justyn Ross was previously in this group, but he’s notably lower now until we get some clarity on his medical situation. The risk of him not playing football ever again makes him risky (obviously).

Not far behind them are Chris Olave, Dyami Brown, Sage Surratt, and Terrace Marshall, with Brennan Eagles and Tutu Atwell in the mix as well. That’s 15 right there, but there are countless other receivers I haven’t listed that I’m also very fond of (see below). This group is probably just as deep as the 2020 class but with better top-end talent.

2021 Tight Ends

The 2020 class of tight ends was awful, but 2021 should bring us a nice influx of talent. Kyle Pitts (Florida) is the best of the group and is one of the biggest mismatch weapons in college football. He’s going to be an elite tight end in fantasy for a long time and is a player I’ll be considering at the end of the first round in next year’s rookie drafts.

Just behind him are Penn State’s Pat Freiermuth and Miami’s Brevin Jordan. Freiermuth is more of your prototypical complete tight end, while Jordan is a player similar to Pitts – a weapon that can line up in line, out wide, or in the slot. All three would have been my TE1 in the 2020 class by at least a full round in rookie drafts.

There are actually a few other players I’m intrigued by already. Charlie Kolar, Jeremy Ruckert, Brant Kuithe, and Matt Bushman should get decent draft capital. Malcolm Epps (a converted wide receiver), Jake Ferguson and Cade Otton are other names I am monitoring.

2022 Quarterbacks

Quarterback is definitely the strength of this class. Howell and Slovis look like future stars and Rattler’s ceiling is immense due to his tools. Daniels is a tremendous dual-threat, but he’s built like a string bean (6’3”, 175) and will need to put on at least 20 pounds to withstand NFL hits.

Bo Nix had an up and down freshman campaign and displayed spotty decision-making, but he’s really talented and should be much improved in 2020.

2022 Running Backs

I am not enthused by this position group. There are solid all-around talents and it’s actually somewhat deep, but I don’t see one single star in this class. Given the depth at the position around the league, I’m skeptical we see many of these players earn significant roles at the next level. This group reminds me of the perception of the 2019 class before we learned of landing spots.

Breece Hall and Isaiah Spiller are my favorite bets of this group to be impact players at the next level, but I have hope for former five-star recruits John Emery Jr. and Trey Sanders.

Jerrion Ealy and Eric Gray are good all-around players and Zach Charbonnet could lead a committee on Sundays, but Wan’Dale Robinson is my favorite (not best) player in this class and has legit 4.25 speed as a hybrid RB/WR.

2022 Wide Receivers

George Pickens is an absolute star already. I’ve been higher than consensus on Pickens since last summer. He might be the most naturally talented wide receiver in college football, but I’m a little leery of investing a mid-first round devy pick on someone with such consistent maturity issues. He’s in a tier of his own because of his talent (and because I am a fantasy player who takes calculated risks).

The next tier is a bit more exciting than it was a couple of weeks ago due to the Justyn Ross news. Former five-star prospect Joe Ngata didn’t magically become more talented overnight as the news broke, but he should get every opportunity to be Trevor Lawrence’s alpha receiver this season. Garrett Wilson has star potential, and David Bell emerged during Rondale Moore’s absence.

This entire next tier of five is really the key to 2022 rookie drafts. All five of CJ Johnson, Jadon Haselwood, Theo Wease, Frank Ladson, and Drake London have terrific potential, but all will need to develop further in order to become future stars. Haselwood is out for the season, but we could be looking at the 2022 class in a better light if these guys continue to improve.

2022 Tight Ends

The top three players here are interesting – Baylor Cupp looks like a monster – but outside of them, this is a class I’m almost entirely avoiding.

2023 Quarterbacks

DJ Uiagalelei and Bryce Young both look truly special and could be a repeat of the 2021 phenoms of Lawrence and Fields. CJ Stroud (Ohio State) should take over after Fields departs, and Harrison Bailey (Tennessee) is an exciting talent.

2023 Running Backs

Folks, we have another really talented group of runners a few years away.

Bijan Robinson is the best in the class. On top of being a really good runner, he could probably play wide receiver, which points to the skill-set that is so coveted in today’s game. Zach Evans might be the best pure runner in the class, but he has some major maturity concerns and had the strangest recruiting journey I can ever remember. There are serious red flags here, but his talent is undeniable.

There is a firm tier of four players behind Robinson. For me, that tier is made up of Demarkcus Bowman (Clemson), Kendall Milton (Georgia), Evans (TCU), and Tank Bigsby (Auburn).

There are several other players I’m very intrigued by, including MarShawn Lloyd, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jase McClellan, and EJ Smith (son of Emmitt Smith).

2023 Wide Receivers

The top couple of incoming receivers look special. At the top of my list is Demond Demas, an athletic phenom who was highly recruited despite not even playing football his senior year of high school (he transferred and had to sit out). Not far behind is Julian Fleming, another athletic five-star in Ohio State’s never-ending pipeline of talent.

My second tier in this class is just two players – Rakim Jarrett, who spurned LSU for Maryland – and Kayshon Boutte (LSU).

Rounding out the notable players I have an early interest in are Jalen McMillan (Washington), Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Gee Scott Jr., and Jermaine Burton (Georgia).

2023 Tight Ends

I rarely invest in tight ends in devy, especially not ones three years away from the NFL, but Arik Gilbert (LSU) looks like an absolute stud. Darnell Washington is another five-star prospect to remember.

This was lengthy, but I hope you enjoyed it and found it valuable. Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jnammour24 and reach out with any questions or comments.