Defend Your Rankings: Top 200 Edition
Opinions on player value differ from owner to owner, and rankers are no different. In this series, we now take a look at DLF top 200 rankers who were asked to defend their highest or lowest ranks versus their fellow rankers.
ALSO READ: Defend Your Rankings: Superflex Edition
All DLF rankings can be found here. For the purpose of our article today, top 200 rankings can be found here.
DLF Writer/Ranker: Rob Willette
Matthew Stafford, QB DET
Average Rank: 135
Rob W Rank: 91 (44 spots higher)
I am stumped by how little love my brethren have for Stafford. The veteran thrived under first-year offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, becoming a top-tier quarterback in many scoring formats before his season was truncated by an injury.
Detroit has established wide receivers, an ascending second-year tight end, and a newly-drafted running back who thrives in the passing game. The weapons are very good, and in the short-term, the Lions have one of the worst defensive depth charts in football. Take the discount and draft Stafford over some of the younger names ahead of him.
Gabriel Davis, WR BUF
Average Rank: 184
Rob W Rank: 132 (52 spots higher)
Admittedly, it is difficult to get excited about a receiver with day three draft pedigree. Yet if there is one I am hitching my wagon to, it is Davis. Davis has destroyed American Athletic Conference cornerbacks over the last two years and possesses a big frame (6’2”, 216 lbs) and adequate athleticism.
He’s in the 80th percentile for breakout age and was an elite downfield weapon at Central Florida. Buffalo is not an exciting landing spot, but there is reason to believe their offense is on the rise. Davis should be a catalyst if this offense takes the next step.
Curtis Samuel, WR CAR
Average Rank: 110
Rob W Rank: 161 (51 spots lower)
I was one of the many passengers on the Samuel hype train entering 2019. He fell well short of the most optimistic projections, posting 627 yards despite high-leverage usage. I am still a believer in Samuel’s talent, and he doesn’t turn 24 until August.
I am just reticent of him finding his rhythm in Charlotte, especially after the Panthers brought in Teddy Bridgewater and Robby Anderson this off-season. His role seems likely to shrink with a quarterback who doesn’t play to his strengths and another receiver to fend off for money looks.
Dede Westbrook, WR JAC
Average Rank: 154
Rob W Rank: 201 (47 spots lower)
Entering year four, I don’t see Westbrook offering much more than he already has, especially given he turns 27 this fall. Westbrook is certainly a quality player, one who could easily be more notable outside the sleepy fantasy circles of Jacksonville. But the Jaguars are in transition-mode, and there are far more questions than answers when it comes to Westbrook. He could easily become the ultimate roster-clogger; too good to outright drop, too inconsistent to ever rely on in your lineup.
DLF Writer/Ranker: Peter Lawrence
Derrius Guice, RB WAS
Average Rank: 81
Pete L Rank: 42 (39 spots higher)
The only thing that has stopped Guice is injury. Unlucky knee injuries have limited and kept Guice off the field. A player is “injury prone” until they have a run of health. Keenan Allen was one of these players and has had a run of good health since. It’s not that Guice hasn’t shown he isn’t talented. Injuries have simply limited him from showcasing that talent.
David Njoku, TE CLE
Average Rank: 170
Pete L Rank: 132 (38 spots higher)
Very few players, much less tight ends, have the athletic talents of Njoku. A broken wrist limited his 2019 as he was only able to play in four games. I believe in the athletic gifts and the tight end is a position that takes time for a player to develop.
Darrynton Evans, RB TEN
Average Rank: 139
Pete L Rank: 177 (38 spots lower)
I just don’t see him being able to get the workload to matter unless Derrick Henry gets hurt. I think he is a talented player but even long-term is little more than a handcuff.
Tyler Higbee, TE LAR
Average Rank: 129
Pete L Rank: 171 (42 spots lower)
It wasn’t until his 59th career game that Higbee had a 100-yard receiving game. That stat line came against the lowly Cardinals defense last season. That was the first time he saw double-digit targets as well. His end of 2019 run was strong, but is this a sign of things to come or simply how the team ended the year.
DLF Writer/Ranker: Levi Chappell
Dallas Goedert, TE PHI
Average Rank: 129
Levi C Rank: 91 (38 spots higher)
There isn’t some secret formula or advanced analytics I am using to rank Goedert. The simple fact is, he is really good. He is a huge target, possesses great athleticism, creates mismatches for linebackers, has developed good chemistry with his young QB, and will only get integrated into the offense even more in 2020.
Zach Ertz will be gone in a season or two, and Goedert stands to benefit immensely. Hang tight to Goedert, and in two years, you will have the next George Kittle or Travis Kelce. Even with Ertz in Philly, Goedert is a solid TE1.
Terry McLaurin, WR WAS
Average Rank: 52
Levi C Rank: 42 (10 spots higher)
There are quite a few sophomore WRs I like a lot moving forward. I even believe a few of them possess elite traits and could be top 20 dynasty assets. One of those players is McLaurin. Yes, he had a good rookie year, tested great, and developed chemistry with his rookie QB. But If I break it down to even a very basic level, the eye test, McLaurin looks like a superstar in the making. When I watch him play, it simply looks “different”.
James Conner, RB PIT
Average Rank: 70
Levi C Rank: 82 (12 spots lower)
This is the part I don’t like nearly as much. I don’t like running down players or saying many bad things. If you are counting on Conner being a solid RB option in 2020, I’m right there with you. I think he will have a solid 2020 season, but I am not sure he has a bright future after that.
He will most likely be out of Pittsburgh after 2020, and I could see him floating around like Jordan Howard; getting some early-down work, but never being a workhorse or the main option on an offense again. He found himself in a really good position when Le’Veon Bell left and capitalized for one season.
Sony Michel, RB NE
Average Rank: 108
Levi C Rank: 141 (33 spots lower)
ACL tear, broken shoulder, broken forearm, knee strain, knee strain, knee strain, knee scope, knee surgery, foot surgery. That doesn’t even include small injuries that made him miss a game or two here and there. The explosive Michel from Georgia no longer exists in my opinion.
I hope he can prove me wrong and continue playing, but as someone who has torn his ACL three times himself, confidence and explosiveness are two things that generally don’t come back. With Damien Harris waiting in the wings, I don’t see Michel having a lengthy and productive career.
DLF Writer/Ranker: Michael Zingone
Justin Jefferson, WR MIN
Average Rank: 59
Mike Z Rank: 37 (22 spots higher)
As the fourth wide receiver taken in the 2020 NFL Draft, Jefferson enters a situation in Minnesota that could very easily vault the former LSU star to being the most productive rookie wide receiver in year one. This ranking isn’t just about his clear and early WR2 role in the Vikings offense, though, but more so the elite prospect profile Jefferson has put together.
Playing his entire rookie season at 21 years old paired with elite colleague measurables like a 4.43-second 40-yard dash, a breakout age of 19, and a clear path to opportunity for value ascension, Jefferson is one of the best bets at wide receiver in this rookie class and a deserved top 40 player in dynasty rankings.
Tee Higgins, WR CIN
Average Rank: 61
Mike Z Rank: 43 (18 spots higher)
Call me a youth-chaser based on my rankings of many in this 2020 rookie class, but when a prospect checks all the boxes and is paired with a number-one overall pick quarterback, I’m willing to be higher than others.
Higgins seemed to be someone who fell down rookie boards as the off-season has progressed, and people are sleeping on one of the best young floor-ceiling combinations in all of dynasty fantasy football. Like Jefferson, Higgins boasts an elite breakout age (18 years old) and will be 21 for the entirety of this rookie season.
I’ve mentioned this twice now; below is a list of all 21-year-old WRs, with first or second-round draft capital, over the last ten seasons. With the opportunity Higgins has to produce long-term with Joe Burrow, this is a player I’m very willing to be much higher on than consensus. He’s a top 50 dynasty asset.
Derrick Henry, RB TEN
Average Rank: 27
Mike Z Rank: 42 (15 spots lower)
Everything went right for Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans towards the end of last season, and to be fair things haven’t appeared to change that much since. However, I’m not willing to pay a premium price for Henry in dynasty leagues old or new.
The 26-year-old running back looks to be someone with limited early career carries and may age well in his later years, but the NFL has shown the propensity to simply toss aside running backs once they’re had their time. While Henry may prove to be a value at this ranking over the next three years, my ranking of Henry has as much to do with predicting league-mates’ opinions over the years as anything.
Sure, Henry may be another volume-fueled RB1 (I have my doubts) in 2020, but who in your dynasty league is going to want a 27-year old running back with 700+ touches and no long-term contract? I certainly wouldn’t. Henry is a fine pick in the fourth round of dynasty startups, but buyer beware.
Julio Jones, WR ATL
Average Rank: 27
Mike Z Rank: 45 (18 spots lower)
I want to be clear early on here: my viewpoint of Jones is very different in an existing league vs a new dynasty league, and it has everything to do with his age. Jones is a beast, no doubt. He’ll very likely be a WR1 this season, and maybe even the season after.
In a new startup dynasty league, though, selecting him early in drafts is the least-flexible move you can make. Selecting the aging future-Hall-of-Famer declares to the league that you are in win-now mode, and the rest of your draft strategy must follow suit.
If your roster henceforth is constructed more so in a building mode, just trade Julio, right? Not so easy, as only a few truly contending teams in your league will want to pay the proper price. In short, Jones is an absolutely fine pick in the fourth round of dynasty startups for the value he will add to your team over the next two or three seasons.
However, selecting him any earlier is sacrificing the ability to pick more versatile dynasty assets that don’t pigeon-hole you into a particular build and who you can realistically trade at-value to any team in your league. In existing dynasty leagues for contending teams, I would be perfectly fine paying full-price for Jones’s services. In a startup draft situation, he’s on my do-not-draft list in all likelihood; someone will want him before I think he’s properly valued.
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