2019 AIR Results: Veteran Tight End Profiles

In the previous article, AIR values for the 2019 top 35 tight ends were presented. This follow-up seeks to add context via brief profiles of how owners may want to treat some of the veteran players (read: players who have been in the NFL for at least three seasons). 2019 rookies and sophomores will be tackled in a subsequent article.

READ: 2019 Air Results: Wide Receivers | Veteran Wide Receiver Profiles | Rookie and Sophomore Wide Receiver Profiles | Tight Ends

Of this grouping, five of 26 players (19.2%) failed to secure an AIR value of at least 1.000. This is the value designated as the expected outcome for pass-catchers who are doing exactly what they should be with their attempts. So in their totality, the veteran tight ends by and large showed efficiency to couple with their total PPR points.

With that said, there were divergences between PPR rank and AIR rank. These are highlighted in the table below.

Subsequent to these numbers, presented below is a qualitative explanation to accompany the quantitative determination. Note that I will not chronicle every tight end listed above. Those who largely hovered at an equilibrium between PPR rank and AIR rank (i.e. values near zero) performed efficiently relative to their statistical output, and do not require further explanation.

Additionally, large positive and large negative values are not inherently assertive, either. As an example, Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce had a slightly above-average AIR value of 1.050 – however, as the 2019 PPR TE1, he wouldn’t have had any room to climb in the “difference” column but had plenty of room to slide. He played efficiently, but the ultimate discrepancy between PPR rank and AIR rank does not appear to bear that out.

With that said, I believe there are actionable movements detailed above and will detail them below.

Ryan Griffin, TE NYJ

There is reason to believe Griffin’s 2019 season was fool’s gold. He caught 82.9% of his 41 targets, after previously corralling only 61.3% of his career looks. Five of his 34 receptions resulted in touchdowns (14.7%), after having only scored seven total times in the previous six years. He also managed to tie his career high for first downs (19), incredibly on 34 fewer targets than when he performed the feat in 2016. Was it the start of a late-career breakout (the seven-year veteran just turned 30 in January), or a magical fairytale ride that already reached its conclusion?

I won’t blame anyone for believing the latter, but it’s notable that the Jets clearly liked what they saw, signing him to an in-season extension worth up to $10.8 million over three years, with $4 million guaranteed. Chris Herndon should return as the nominal starter, but he’s not yet shown consistency either on the field or off of it. There also exists a target vacuum following the free agency loss of Robbie Anderson, with only Jamison Crowder entrenched in the receiving depth chart. Things would have to break right once again but in deeper leagues, Griffin makes for a smart stash.

Blake Jarwin, TE DAL

Jarwin effectively functioned as Griffin-lite, with a high catch percentage on the same 41 targets, albeit with two fewer scores. Unlike Griffin, Jarwin now has a clear path to the starting role with the defection of Jason Witten to the Raiders. He also has one of the league’s best quarterbacks throwing the ball in a pass-heavy system.

Jarwin’s value might be depressed due to the drafting of CeeDee Lamb as (ostensibly) the team’s third target in the passing game. But Witten and Randall Cobb are taking 166 targets with them, so there remains room for growth. As the TE20 by ADP, he makes for an upside buy.

Tyler Eifert, TE JAC

Perennial injury risk Eifert very quietly put together the first 16-game campaign of his career in 2019, finishing as the PPR TE20 in the process. In doing so he put forward the second-most targets, receptions and first downs out of his seven NFL seasons, though he failed to find the end zone with his prior frequency. Now a Jacksonville Jaguar, this output hasn’t moved the needle for dynasty owners, as he’s nowhere to be found in the June ADP. While it’s easy to doubt Eifert’s ability to stay healthy again, he very quietly had the fifth-highest AIR score of all tight ends, and might be the cheapest starting tight end in fantasy football.

Darren Fells, TE HOU

Fells essentially functioned as an older, slightly higher scoring, and slightly less efficient version of Griffin. The 34-year old breakout finished as the PPR TE17, largely on the back of his seven receiving scores across only 34 receptions (20.6%). This also aided his ascension to the third-best tight end AIR score.

Fells will receive a challenge from Jordan Akins, who actually out-targeted him in 2019, as well as 2019 third-round pick Kahale Warring. At current though, Fells stands atop the depth chart. At the price of “free” (like Eifert, he’s not to be found in the June ADP), he makes for a savvy end-of-bench stash.

Eric Ebron, TE PIT

The well-traveled Ebron now brings his oft-ridiculed talents to the Steel City where he will presumably function as the starter over walk-year teammate Vance McDonald. Despite missing five games to injury, the former first-round pick still managed to finish as a high-end TE3, and was efficient while doing so (AIR score of 1.138). Should Ben Roethlisberger manage to stay healthy, Ebron has the potential to emerge as a dark horse TE1 (it’s prudent to remember he scored 13 touchdowns as recently as 2018) and easily better his ADP as the TE25.

Kyle Rudolph, TE MIN

The presence of Irv Smith Jr. has made it easy to forget about Rudolph, despite the latter finishing the year as the overall PPR TE16. With an AIR score of 1.311, owners shouldn’t continue to make this mistake. Smith will continue to get his slice of the pie, but Rudolph remains as an efficient scoring presence and solid backup.

Jonnu Smith, TE TEN

Finally emerging from Delanie Walker’s shadow, Smith climbed from the depths of mediocrity to finish as a back-end PPR TE2 in 2019. Now firmly the starter, more targets should lead to the possibility for a TE1 finish, as Smith was extremely productive even when contending with the likes of efficiency monster AJ Brown. Available four rounds after Dallas Goedert, Mike Gesicki and Tyler Higbee, Smith appears likely to best his current draft position.

Jared Cook, TE NO

Cook is worth noting here simply because he was the second-most efficient tight end of all 35 players chronicled. He did this despite already playing with an efficient quarterback, and contending with All-World Michael Thomas. His last two seasons (Raiders, and then Saints) have been absolutely monstrous and he deserves to be thought of as one of the best at the position.

Evan Engram, TE NYG

Engram is worth noting here because, unlike Cook, he is valued as one of the best at the position, but hasn’t been able to show an efficiency to support it. I’m not saying you shouldn’t draft him confidently – but the receivers on the team appeared to do more with their targets. As a reminder, the purpose of this series is to answer the question of “what if?” If Engram isn’t able to command the same target share, it’s easy to see him failing to live up to his ADP (TE4).

George Kittle, TE SF; Darren Waller, TE LV; Zach Ertz, TE PHI; and Travis Kelce, TE KC

Just dropping a note to say don’t overthink these guys. Out of this quartet, Ertz is likely the most at risk due to the presence of Goedert (more on him in the next article), but he, Kittle and Kelce have been the best performers at the position the past few years. Waller’s efficiency (AIR score of 1.116) asserts that he should be unaffected by the addition of Jason Witten (AIR score of LOL).

Find me on Twitter @EDH_27 (even though I rarely post anymore).

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.

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