2019 AIR Results: Tight Ends

Eric Hardter Posted On June 20, 2020

In the first three articles in this series, AIR profiles for the 2019 top 50 wide receivers were presented, followed by brief profiles of how owners may want to treat some of the veteran wide receivers (read: players who have been in the NFL for at least three seasons), and then rookie and sophomore receivers. Now, we’ll pivot to the tight end position.

READ: 2019 Air Results: Wide Receiver s | Veteran Wide Receiver Profiles | Rookie and Sophomore Wide Receiver Profiles

Unlike the receivers, however, the tight end grouping did not fare quite as well across the board. In fact, I decided to chronicle only the top 35 players at the position, as only twenty-one of them scored even 100 PPR points! While on the aggregate we expect receivers to outscore tight ends, the differences were striking. However, if you are truly clamoring to know how efficiently Logan Thomas (2019 PPR TE50) scored his 39.3 PPR points last season, drop me a line on Twitter and I’ll be sure to hook you up!

To that point, the average yearly line of the top-35 wide receivers stood at a robust 78.5-1,071-6.6 on 121.2 targets, good for a hair over 225 PPR points. Only one tight end, the Chiefs’ Travis Kelce, bettered that average total, with PPR TEs 2-5 just a bit behind. The average line for the top 35 tight ends was calculated to be 48.0-538-3.9 on 69.7 targets, good for just over 125 PPR points (100 points lower than the average analogous wide receiver).

None of these observations are likely striking to even the most casual fantasy football aficionado. There is a reason that tight ends typically exist as a “onesie” position in starting lineups, and it’s also why many leagues have adopted a TE-premium scoring system in an attempt to even the odds with the other skill positions. In short, tight ends are effectively the corporate bailout of the fantasy football world.

In their totality, the AIR numbers also bear that out. While a small handful performed as efficiency rock stars, with one even bettering the top-AIR scoring wide receiver (Terry McLaurin), eight of the 35 AIR values (22.9%) tabulated fell below the average efficiency threshold of 1.000. As a reminder and for a point of contrast, just three of the 50 receiver AIR values (6.0%) performed with this type of relative inefficiency.

With all that said and as a reminder, I’m not claiming AIR to be a predictive metric. Rather, where I believe AIR can be implemented is to potentially answer the questions of “what if?” At tight end, this becomes even more pronounced, as it may enable owners to find a future breakout on the cheap, while also affording a potential positional edge.

With that preamble in hand, let’s get to the data! Below are summarized the AIR results for the 2019 top 35 tight ends. Please note that any points from rushing have been subtracted and are not included – this is a receiving-only analysis. Subsequent articles will provide individual player breakdowns.

Rank	Name	Team	Target	Points	Team Targets	Team Points	AIR	AIR Rank
22	Ryan Griffin	NYJ	41	96	521	748.1	1.631	1
7	Jared Cook	NO	65	167.5	581	1058.4	1.415	2
17	Darren Fells	HOU	48	110.1	534	895.3	1.368	3
16	Kyle Rudolph	MIN	48	111.7	466	827.3	1.311	4
20	Tyler Eifert	CIN	63	104.6	616	829.2	1.233	5
14	Noah Fant	DEN	66	114.2	504	719.5	1.212	6
6	Austin Hooper	ATL	97	189.7	684	1104.4	1.211	7
9	Hunter Henry	LAC	76	150.2	597	980.6	1.203	8
29	Blake Jarwin	DAL	41	85.5	597	1043.1	1.194	9
19	Jonnu Smith	TEN	44	96.9	448	829.2	1.190	10
35	Kaden Smith	NYG	42	75.8	607	929.1	1.179	11
8	Tyler Higbee	LAR	89	160.4	632	978.9	1.164	12
27	Eric Ebron	IND	52	86.5	513	749.8	1.138	13
5	Mark Andrews	BAL	98	209.2	440	833.5	1.127	14
13	Greg Olsen	CAR	82	123.7	633	849	1.125	15
3	George Kittle	SF	107	220.3	478	878.2	1.121	16
10	Dallas Goedert	PHI	87	148.7	613	936.3	1.119	17
2	Darren Waller	LV	117	222.5	523	891.6	1.116	18
21	Jimmy Graham	GB	60	100.7	573	885.3	1.086	19
32	Dawson Knox	BUF	50	78.8	513	747.9	1.081	20
12	Mike Gesicki	MIA	89	138	615	883.4	1.079	21
30	Vance McDonald	PIT	55	83.3	510	721.1	1.071	22
15	Jack Doyle	IND	72	111.8	513	749.8	1.062	23
1	Travis Kelce	KC	136	249.9	576	1007.8	1.050	24
4	Zach Ertz	PHI	135	215.6	613	936.3	1.046	25
18	Evan Engram	NYG	68	108.7	607	929.1	1.044	26
34	Hayden Hurst	BAL	39	76.9	440	833.5	1.041	27
25	Jordan Akins	HOU	55	89.8	534	895.3	0.974	28
26	Gerald Everett	LAR	60	89.8	632	978.9	0.966	29
11	Jason Witten	DAL	83	139.9	597	1043.1	0.965	30
24	Cameron Brate	TB	56	91.1	630	1064.5	0.963	31
28	OJ Howard	TB	53	85.9	630	1064.5	0.959	32
33	Irv Smith	MIN	47	79.1	466	827.3	0.948	33
23	Jacob Hollister	SEA	59	93.9	517	906.1	0.908	34
31	TJ Hockenson	DET	59	80.7	571	902	0.866	35

Find me on Twitter @EDH_27 (even though I rarely post anymore).

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.