2019 AIR Results: Rookie and Sophomore Wide Receiver Profiles

Eric Hardter

In the initial article, AIR profiles for the 2019 top 50 wide receivers were presented. Subsequently, brief profiles of how owners may want to treat some of the veteran players (read: players who have been in the NFL for at least three seasons) were offered. Here, profiles for 2019 rookies and sophomores are tackled.

READ: 2019 Air Results: Wide Receivers | Veteran Wide Receiver Profiles

First, a disclaimer. Incredibly, nearly all of the 2019 top 50 rookie and sophomore receivers earned their targets. Only one of these players failed to secure an AIR value of at least 1.000, which is designated as the expected outcome for pass-catchers who are doing exactly what they should be with their attempts. So in their totality, despite their collective youth, these receivers showed efficiency to couple with their total PPR points.

With that said, there were divergences between PPR rank and AIR rank. These are highlighted in the table below.

Player Team PPR Rank AIR Rank Difference
 Darius Slayton NYG 37 6 31
 Terry McLaurin WAS 29 1 28
 Diontae Johnson PIT 40 17 23
 Calvin Ridley ATL 27 11 16
 AJ Brown TEN 21 7 14
 Marquise Brown BAL 46 34 12
 DJ Chark JAC 18 14 4
 Courtland Sutton DEN 19 15 4
 DJ Moore CAR 15 13 2
 DK Metcalf SEA 30 37 -7
 Christian Kirk ARI 38 49 -11
 Deebo Samuel SF 31 45 -14
 Michael Gallup DAL 24 40 -16

 

Subsequent to these numbers, presented below is a qualitative explanation to accompany the quantitative determination. Given the lesser number in this subset (N = 13), I will chronicle every receiver listed above, even those who largely hovered at an equilibrium between PPR rank and AIR rank (i.e. values near zero) and performed efficiently relative to their statistical output.

As a friendly reminder, large positive and large negative values are not inherently assertive. More highly ranked (PPR ranking) receivers had more room to slide, and vice versa with the lower-ranked pass catchers. With that said, I believe there are actionable movements detailed above, especially given the potential longevity that comes with youth.

Darius Slayton, WR NYG

With an AIR score of 1.322, Slayton checked in as the second-ranked rookie per this metric, narrowly edging out the Titans’ AJ Brown (it should be noted Brown scored 35.1 more PPR points on the same number of targets, but Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill was one of the most efficient signal-callers in the league in 2019). Aiding his cause was a disproportionately large number of touchdowns, but Slayton also functioned as the team’s lone big-play threat (15.4 yards per reception) and led the team in yards, as well. It is true that there are a number of mouths to feed in New York, but Slayton should not be viewed as a flash in the pan. Rather, he should be viewed as the Giants’ receiver to own moving forward.

Terry McLaurin, WR WAS

Perhaps the most laughable narrative regarding McLaurin’s smashing rookie successes was that “someone had to catch the ball in Washington.” While this is true, McLaurin absolutely shattered the 2019 AIR metric with a high score of 1.438 amongst all players chronicled, veterans included. This goes to show that, yes, someone indeed had to catch the ball – but the guy who did it with the best frequency turned some of the most garbage-level targets in the league into one of the most impressive rookie seasons in recent memory.

Every now and then I’ll get on my soapbox about certain players, and McLaurin is one of them. It’s time to let go of the narrative that he should’ve done better in college. Since that point, he’s checked every box, including crushing the Shrine Game, destroying the NFL Combine, accumulating solid draft capital, receiving “veteran treatment” as a rookie in training camp, and of course putting up big first-year numbers.

Don’t get me wrong, I like AJ Brown and fellow rookie DK Metcalf. But if they are ranked in the WR1 tier, McLaurin should not be rated as a WR3 (rankings data), available two (Metcalf) or three rounds (Brown) later. Owners should take the discount while it lasts.

/EndRant

Diontae Johnson, WR PIT

Though not quite to the level of Slayton, Johnson walked into a surprising receiving vacuum in Pittsburgh, leading the team in targets, receptions and touchdowns. Though he didn’t prove to be a deep threat, his yards after catch also led the Steelers’ receiving corps. I believe JuJu Smith-Schuster will bounce back with Ben Roethlisberger under center in 2020, but he’ll be a free agent the following year. Though Johnson has boarded the hype train this off-season, buying high now beats buying higher later.

Calvin Ridley, WR ATL

Akin to McLaurin, it’s time to get rid of any draft-day notions of Ridley. His Combine wasn’t great, and he was an older rookie, sure. But he’s already managed 17 touchdowns through two seasons, leading the team each year despite missing three 2019 contests. Had he stayed healthy, I believe he’d be neck and neck with DJ Moore for the mantle of the most sought-after second-year receiver.

AJ Brown, WR TEN

Don’t let the narrative on McLaurin above sound like a slight on Brown, as that wasn’t the intention. The rookie put forward a tremendous season, leading the team in all relevant statistical targets. A yards-after-catch maven, the results of his open-field prowess alone (463 YAC) would have counted as the third-most receiving yards on the team. Consistency was somewhat elusive, which is not surprising on a Derrick Henry-led offense, but Brown was able to reach at least 80 yards in seven of 16 regular-season games, not on the back of his volume (84 targets) but due to an insane efficiency (20.2 YPR). While regression is worrisome both on a micro (his own efficiency) and macro (Tannehill’s magical season) level, the seventh-best AIR score as a 22-year-old shows that the ceiling is sky-high.

Marquise Brown, WR BAL

Given his penchant for big plays (seven touchdowns on only 71 targets), robust efficiency would be expected. And even though he received some of the highest quality targets in the league with Lamar Jackson at the helm, he still put forward an above-average AIR score of 1.089. Not herculean, but for an oft-injured rookie, Brown answered the bell. A year-two leap can be anticipated if he can approach closer to 100 looks in 2020.

DJ Chark, WR JAX

“Baby Chark” turned a forgettable rookie season into a sophomore explosion, with an AIR score of 1.252 helping lead the way to a PPR ranking as the WR18. While the Jaguars are not often mistaken for an aerial juggernaut, they amazingly supported three top 50 receivers in 2019, meaning Chark had to earn his looks. The touchdowns (eight on 118 targets) could and should prove sustainable, and if Chark can even marginally improve his catch percentage (61.9% target conversion), he could join the WR1 ranks in 2020.

Courtland Sutton, WR DEN

See Chark, rinse and repeat. To that end, Sutton achieved nearly the same receiving line as the previously-chronicled Jaguar, despite Broncos quarterbacks offering up 160 fewer PPR points to their pass catchers. Sutton benefited from a weaker depth chart upon the trade of Emmanuel Sanders but nevertheless checked in with the 15th-best AIR score. Unfortunately for Sutton, he will likely need to continue this efficiency, given the talent Denver added in the forms of Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler. The margin for error is lesser, but given his efficiency at such a young age, Sutton remains worth of an investment.

DJ Moore, WR CAR

You may be noticing a trend at this point. Despite a lack of experience at the NFL level, each of the players detailed here surpassed expectations and earned their targets. With an AIR score of 1.262, Moore was no exception. Where he may be limited is a reliance on YAC (403 yards), which he’s been unable to supplement with touchdowns during his two years in the league (just six on 217 career targets). While I would not use this as a reason not to buy, it’s notable that he is likely already priced near his ceiling should these trends continue.

DK Metcalf, WR SEA

Metcalf had a very good rookie season, but the minor troubling sign is he fell towards the bottom of the AIR rankings relative to his PPR rank (#37 overall, AIR score of 1.084). This was buoyed by his seven scores on just 58 receptions, and he needs to do a better job of converting the latter (only a 58.0% catch rate). I wouldn’t not buy him because of this, but at cost, I think draft capital and trade assets could be better spent elsewhere. Very quietly, Tyler Lockett remains the best and most efficient receiver on the roster.

Christian Kirk, WR ARI

If there was one receiver in this grouping to make you say “woof,” it would be Kirk. As a possession receiver, he simply needs to do more with his targets. This includes bettering his catch percentage (63.0%), YPT (6.56) and scoring rate (2.78%). With DeAndre Hopkins now in town, and Larry Fitzgerald sticking around another year, Kirk stands to me as the easiest fade on this list.

Deebo Samuel, WR SF

It’s notable to mention that I’m not discussing Samuel the Swiss army knife, only Samuel the receiver. His AIR score of 1.043 exceeded expectations, largely on the back of his 9.9 YPT. Gone is Emmanuel Sanders, but Brandon Aiyuk has entered as a first-round receiver, and Jalen Hurd should return healthy. If Samuel can increase his scoring rate (3.7%), however, he should be fine moving forward.

Michael Gallup, WR DAL

Gallup’s counting statistics were impressive (66-1,107-6), and his AIR score of 1.077 was acceptable. Moving forward, he will have to improve his catch percentage (58.4%) and perhaps his scoring rate (5.3%) to hold off CeeDee Lamb and continue to function as the team’s WR2 behind Amari Cooper. I don’t truthfully feel any particular way about Gallup – he’s probably a hold as the WR40 by ADP, though I would not go out of my way to buy him due to the presence of Lamb.

Find me on Twitter @EDH_27 (even though I rarely post anymore).

eric hardter