Five Rookies Who Will See Their ADP Drop Next Year
One of my favorite things to do each off-season when identifying trade targets is to look at players who underperformed the previous year. Commonly referred to as “post-hype” sleepers, I’ve found that second-year players are often the ideal targets.
After the usual rookie hype gets out of control, and rookies see their ADP in startups get grossly inflated, there is usually only one direction for them to go. I searched through DLF’s current ADP to identify rookies who will see their ADP drop a year from now.
JK Dobbins, RB BAL
Dobbins grows on me more and more each day. Looking back in five or six years, I wouldn’t be shocked if Dobbins ends up far and away the best running back from this class. But that’s five years from now. As for today, I think Dobbins disappoints fantasy owners as a rookie. Currently being selected as RB12 off the board with the 21st overall pick in startup drafts, he is costly to acquire.
The Ohio State product finds himself on the NFL’s highest-scoring offense, but he has plenty of competition. Mark Ingram still has something left in the tank as he plays into his 30s, Gus Edwards has shown the ability to produce when handed the reins, and Justice Hill is a serviceable change-of-pace back who has yet to reach his potential.
As a result, Dobbins is in a crowded backfield as part of a committee and is facing an uphill battle to return value equal to his ADP. That disappointment in year one is going to cause his ADP to slip a few spots in 2021.
CeeDee Lamb, WR DAL
Many analysts’ WR1 in the 2020 class, Lamb is set up to disappoint during his freshman campaign. In the leagues where you wanted Lamb but didn’t have the draft capital to acquire him, sit tight for a year or two. Michael Gallup‘s rookie deal expires after the 2021 season, and Amari Cooper has an out built into his contract after the 2021 season too. If Dallas cuts Cooper in two years, it would only cost the Cowboys $12 million in dead-cap money over the following three seasons, while giving them $66 million in salary relief. Say good-bye to Dallas, Mr. Cooper.
The ‘Boys might use Cooper a ton over the next two seasons before they kick him to the curb while simultaneously giving Gallup every opportunity to prove he deserves a second contract in Dallas. If the next two years play out like that, look for the door to be kicked wide open for Lamb and his impending third-year breakout. The best part of all? The more work Cooper and Gallup get in the coming seasons, the more we should see Lamb’s price get depressed and come down from his current rank as WR20.
Joe Burrow, QB CIN
Burrow is already QB7 in dynasty startups! QB7? What a time to be alive. The six quarterbacks above him seem to be locked in for at least another year or two. It’s probably safe to assume Trevor Lawrence will be drafted ahead of Burrow next year, and maybe even Justin Fields too. If any of Josh Allen, Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield, Tua Tagovailoa, or Daniel Jones have a strong 2020, it is fair to assume they would also be ahead of Burrow in 2021. It feels like Burrow is already being drafted at his ceiling, and he can only see his ADP drop.
Chase Claypool, WR PIT
Looking at the Steelers depth chart, Claypool has no clear path to get meaningful reps as a rookie. When JuJu Smith-Schuster missed time last season, both James Washington and Diontae Johnson stepped up and filled in admirably. There is no reason to think they’re going to regress and take a step back in 2020, allowing Claypool an opportunity to take meaningful work away from them. With an ADP of 159 as the 70th wide receiver off the board, we’ll likely see Claypool fall down the board while fantasy owners and NFL pundits continue to debate whether or not he should move to tight end.
Van Jefferson, WR LAR
Taking a glance at the Rams’ current contract situation and you’ll see they have no significant receivers under contract after the 2021 season and only one after 2020. Cooper Kupp and Josh Reynolds may both be out of the picture a year from today, and Robert Woods might follow them out the door a year later. The Rams are in salary cap hell and won’t be able to re-sign everyone. Jefferson is an old rookie, but if he can show any flashes of potential over the next season or two, he is in line for a significant bump in snaps and targets in the future.
With the Rams looking to return to the run game a bit more, and Jefferson slightly buried on the depth chart, he’s not in a good position to see the receptions and yardage necessary for fantasy relevancy as a rookie despite his second-round draft capital. As a result, with a current ADP of 176 in startups, it’s probable we see Jefferson’s ADP move backward next year. I look at him as a prime buy-low candidate a year from today.
Player ADP is always fluctuating. If you like certain players this year but haven’t been able to land them in your drafts, and you think their ADP is going to fall, don’t waste draft capital trading up to acquire them now. Read the tea leaves, and try to get them next year on the cheap as their owners are looking to recoup what they perceive to be their losses following a disappointing rookie season.
Without a crystal ball, there is no way for any of us to know who is going to see their ADP rise and fall, but these are the five rookies who I felt would see a drop in the ADP entering their sophomore seasons.
- 2024 Off-Season Mock Drafts: Rookie Fallout From an NFL Mock Draft - April 20, 2024
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: A View from the 1.07 - April 17, 2024
- 2024 Off-Season Mock Drafts: Recent Rookie Risers and Fallers - April 13, 2024
