2019 AIR Results: Veteran Wide Receiver Profiles

In the previous article, AIR values for the 2019 top 50 wide receivers were presented. This follow-up seeks to add context via brief profiles of how owners may want to treat some of the veteran players (read: players who have been in the NFL for at least three seasons). 2019 rookies and sophomores will be tackled in a subsequent article.

READ: 2019 Air Results: Wide Receivers

First, a disclaimer. By and large, the 2019 top 50 receivers earned their targets. To that point, only three players failed to secure an AIR value of at least 1.000, which is designated as the expected outcome for pass-catchers who are doing exactly what they should be with their attempts. So in their totality, the top 50 receivers showed efficiency to couple with their total PPR points.

With that said, there were divergences between PPR rank and AIR rank. These are highlighted in the table below.

*AIR value is a weighted average of statistics accrued from stints in Denver and San Francisco

Subsequent to these numbers, presented below is a qualitative explanation to accompany the quantitative determination. Note that I will not chronicle every receiver listed above. Those who largely hovered at an equilibrium between PPR rank and AIR rank (i.e. values near zero) performed efficiently relative to their statistical output, and do not require further explanation.

Additionally, large positive and large negative values are not inherently assertive, either. As an example, Texans (now Cardinals) receiver DeAndre Hopkins had a slightly above average AIR value of 1.044 – however, as the 2019 PPR WR5, he wouldn’t have had much room to climb in the “difference” column, but had plenty of room to slide. He played efficiently, but the ultimate discrepancy between PPR rank and AIR rank does not appear to bear that out.

With that said, I believe there are actionable movements detailed above and will detail them below.

Tyrell Williams, WR LAR

Shoehorned into the Raiders’ WR1 role, Williams played extremely efficiently, but could only muster 64 targets due to injury. With the arrival of rookie first-round pick Henry Ruggs (as well as Bryan Edwards), owners are likely shuffling Williams down the ADP hierarchy. However, if he can stay healthy, it would not be a surprise to see him actually perform better in 2020.

Breshad Perriman, WR NYJ

While not to the level of teammate Chris Godwin, Perriman was extremely efficient during his stint with the Bucs. He now enters a significantly less crowded receiving room, and could ostensibly function as the Jets’ WR1. He warrants consideration as a potential 2020 flex play.

Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay, WR DET

Both players were extraordinarily efficient, checking in as top three scorers in the AIR metric. While Golladay is priced somewhat near his ceiling as it is, Jones could come cheaply for contenders. Golladay appears to me as a buy-high, with Jones as a buy-low.

Golden Tate, WR NYG

Similar to Jones above, Tate makes for a nice rainy-day purchase. There are a lot of mouths to feed on the Giants offense, but if injuries befall the team in a manner similar to 2019, Tate has shown an ability to still function as an efficient playmaker.

Robby Anderson, WR CAR

You might be noticing Anderson’s inclusion on this list, with a significantly higher differential than that of Curtis Samuel. Indeed, the Panthers’ free-agent acquisition was quite efficient with an AIR score of 1.160, on route to a finish as the PPR WR41. Targets from Teddy Bridgewater would be arguably better than those from Sam Darnold, and similar volume (96 targets) would not be unexpected.

Chris Conley, WR JAC

Much like Anderson, Conley’s efficiency outpaced his overall statistics. The addition of Laviska Shenault further crowds the receiving room, which already contains two other PPR top 50 receivers in DJ Chark and Dede Westbrook. With that said, Conley is a nice “zero WR” pick in late rounds, as either a hedge on Chark or as key depth at the position.

Tyreek Hill, WR KC

It’s worth noting that Hill received high marks for efficiency (AIR of 1.194), and only finished as low as he did because of his injury. He is one of a small handful of players who has the potential to finish as the overall PPR WR1 in 2020.

John Brown and Cole Beasley, WR BUF

The addition of Stefon Diggs muddies the waters, but both players were efficient in 2019. Akin to Conley above, Brown and Beasley make for excellent hedges for dynasty owners punting the receiver position.

Sammy Watkins, WR KC

Watkins had a great Super Bowl. On the whole, he was the least efficient 2019 receiver according to the AIR metric. Tread lightly.

Chris Godwin, WR TB

This brief blurb serves to note that not only was Godwin a rock star in total points, he was extremely efficient with his targets. Draft and trade for him with a clear conscience.

Amari Cooper, WR DAL; Mike Evans, WR TB; Tyler Boyd, WR CIN; Davante Adams, WR GB; Allen Robinson, WR CHI; Julian Edelman, WR NE; Michael Thomas, WR NO; Julio Jones, WR ATL; and Keenan Allen, WR LAC

Put aside the values in the “difference” column. Each player did better with his targets than was expected, and the negative values largely relate to high finishes in the PPR rank hierarchy. If you want to adjust values due to circumstance (e.g. Cowboys drafting Ceedee Lamb, or Tom Brady leaving the Patriots), that’s certainly fine. But the efficiency of these players is not in question.

Robert Woods, WR LAR

On the other hand, it’s fair to question Woods. He benefits due to the loss of receiver Brandin Cooks, but it’s clear he was far less efficient than current teammate Cooper Kupp. If he were to lose targets, it’s not clear that he’d be able to make up for it with efficiency.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR ARI

Concluding here with the man utilized as the poster child for negative values. As mentioned above, Hopkins was more efficient than anticipated with his 2019 targets. With that said, he’s entering a team with more mouths to feed and a less-established quarterback. Should his number of targets (or quality of target) reduce, he will need to be even more efficient in 2020 to make up for it.

Find me on Twitter @EDH_27 (even though I rarely post anymore).

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.

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