Is Calvin Ridley the next Chris Godwin?

Jordan Richards Posted On June 17, 2020

Fantasy football is a fun game, but many of us tend to overcomplicate things at times and look for narratives to contradict a rational outcome simply because it doesn’t fit our narrative. This takes me back to 2006. No, not the NFL season, to a spectacular film directed by Christopher Nolan: The Prestige.

The movie centered around two magicians, each trying to outdo the other when Christian Bale’s character came up with an impossible trick in which he used a body double. Hugh Jackman’s character rejected this assumption saying it was too simple to be that easy and obsessed over it, only for it to be true. I don’t want to spoil the movie, so if you haven’t seen it, watch it.

So, how does this relate to fantasy football?

There is an overwhelming amount of evidence to support the idea that Calvin Ridley is Chris Godwin’s “Double” and yet there are some who deny it, because much like Hugh Jackman says, “it cannot be that simple”. Anyone familiar with the film knows of the famous quote, stating that there are three parts to a magic trick: the pledge, the turn, and the prestige.

I will dive into just how Godwin and Ridley are “doubles” and that they are more similar than many have realized.

The Discussion About ADP

The seemingly polarizing talent of Calvin Ridley has been a hot topic of discussion in June. Coming off of a solid sophomore campaign, many are expecting another uptick in production heading into the 2020 season. Look no further than the rise in DLF Startup ADP from December 2019 to now:

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As we can see, Ridley saw an ADP rise from 45 overall to 36.5 from this time last year as until November 2019, he was consistently rising. This year, he has seen a swift rise again and is now being drafted at 38.5 overall. Whether it is the hype surrounding him in the community or his ADP history, there is no reason why we shouldn’t expect it to continue rising as redraft season gets closer and closer.

Dynasty is a game of value – calling your shot on a player early before they explode and become untouchable. In recent memory, one of those players Buccaneers receiver Godwin. His ADP chart across the same period as Ridley’s is featured below. Notice the similarities?

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Godwin finished the season on a high note and thus had solid draft capital heading into the off-season (“The Pledge”). He saw a slight decrease in the winter months during the hype of draft season (“The Turn”). That was followed by a rise after a realization that opportunity is going to come crashing onto Godwin as he enters into his third season in the NFL. We all know what comes next: “The Prestige”. Hysteria builds as he gets pegged as the next best thing. He delivers on that consensus projection and becomes a nearly untouchable dynasty asset – all while playing behind a high-end, five-time 1,000-yard wide receiver in Mike Evans. Has anyone else heard that narrative before?

Analytical Analysis

Analytically speaking, one simple split describes Ridley’s upside almost perfectly. My exposure to this was actually brought about by Curtis Patrick (@CPatrickNFL) of Rotoviz. He put this on Twitter, showing Ridley’s splits and 16-game pace with and without Mohamed Sanu in the lineup.

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Chart provided by Rotoviz.com.

Ridley would have finished with 91 receptions, 1,315 yards and eight touchdowns with 131 targets (good for 279 PPR fantasy points)

Godwin’s 2019 fantasy season: 86 receptions, 1,333 yards and nine touchdowns on 121 targets (276 PPR fantasy points).

I am no math major, but if you need any more proof that the possibility is there, you are looking too hard in favor of the negative. If you have been paying attention to the path I have led you down, then it’s time for you to not only come to the realization on your own but no longer question the overwhelming evidence thrown in front of you.

Ridley is as talented, capable, and ready to dominate, as Godwin was heading into 2019. There may be people out there citing the contrary, but they are, at least in my opinion, doubting a player for the wrong reasons. The only question marks are out of our control. The stars have aligned for Ridley to be a WR1 for the 2020 season even while playing with one of the greatest receivers of his generation and a future Hall of Famer in Julio Jones.

If that isn’t enough, I also took a deeper dive at Ridley’s route running ability and just how his ability to separate and deceive defenders with his routes is what makes him such a challenge to defend. You can check out that breakdown in the video below:

All of these factors are not bad things. They are going to help Ridley. He will see tremendous volume, is one of the best route runners in football and has a nose for the end zone. We look for all of these traits in a WR1. Yet there are some people who would prefer someone else, or go another direction because Ridley he is “too expensive” and “not the best receiver on his team”.

I will leave you with this closing quote from The Prestige;

“Every magic trick consists of three parts or acts. The first part is called ‘The Pledge’… The magician shows you something ordinary. The second part is called ‘The Turn’. The magician takes the ordinary something, and makes it into something extraordinary… But you wouldn’t clap yet, because making something disappear isn’t enough. You have to bring it BACK.”

In case you haven’t got where I am going with this, Ridley is the Prestige. Godwin goes into the door, and Ridley comes out of it.

Thank you so much for reading my article at DLF. If you want to check out more of my work, feel free to follow me on twitter @ChaBoyJRich.