Is DK Metcalf Still a Dynasty Buy?

Jordan Richards Posted On June 16, 2020

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf is, in a lot of ways, still a bit of a mystery. We look at this 6’4″, 229-pound man and wonder to ourselves how on earth is it possible that he even exists.

A resident of the pacific northwest, it seems apropos to only compare him to another large, mystical, creature. I am of course talking about Sasquatch. Before you bash this comparison, let’s really dive into what we know about this sublime superhero.

The Legend Grows at the NFL Combine

It wasn’t until March 2nd, 2019 that the legend of Metcalf was revealed to the world. His Scouting Combine performance completely rocked the twitter-verse. Instagram photos of his enormous muscles turned heads, and his potential jumped off the page.

However, running a 4.33-second 40-yard dash at the combine was not good enough. His seemly humble and hardworking personality was not enough for NFL teams or fantasy owners for that matter. He was discounted because of his previous injury history in college and his lack of agility in the three-cone drill.

The three-cone drill highlights a players’ short-area quickness and agility. Metcalf tested very poorly and so analysts bashed him, assuming he wouldn’t be able to get in and out of breaks. I think it’s safe to say that while the initial analysis may have made sense, many of us were wrong.

The best part about Metcalf’s dynasty and NFL career so far isn’t his size/speed combination, or his lack of lateral agility. It’s how polarizing of a topic (much like the existence of Sasquatch) he once was, and how now in our community, he has become something of a cult hero.

A Rookie Season to Remember

Metcalf fell to the second round before being drafted by the Seahawks and going on to have a spectacular rookie season. With 58 receptions, 900 yards, and seven touchdowns on 100 targets, it was one of the more impressive campaigns we have seen in from a first-year player in some time.

In a class filled with some very impressive ones, Metcalf seems to be someone who still has room to grow. At the time of writing, Metcalf is listed as WR12 in our DLF Consensus Rankings and WR16 based on May DLF ADP Data. The question is: even after his year-one rise, is there room for more growth?

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Statistics from Pro Football Reference.

I dove into some of the numbers and found a few interesting pieces of information. Firstly, as many will comment, Seattle is not a pass-first team, and yet they still finished with two receivers in the top 14 in red-zone targets – Tyler Lockett (#1 with 23) and Metcalf (#14 with 17). As you can see, it goes a little deeper than the raw target numbers. Metcalf saw the targets but converted at an extremely low rate compared to his peers.

This to me leads back into my earlier point. Metcalf, while physically imposing, has yet to develop the skill set that makes him a threat beyond his physicality when the field shrinks. Many talented receivers who are not as terrifying to line up across still find success because they can get open in tight spaces, an area in which Metcalf clearly struggled throughout 2019. When compared to his teammate Lockett, it’s no contest.

Metcalf finished the year in PPR leagues with 129.1 fantasy points – good for WR30. That is outstanding for a rookie who was known for struggling to get in and out of breaks.

The sophomore will likely transition to the alpha role this season, giving him an uptick in market share, more red-zone targets, and an overall bump in statistics. If he improves his footwork, he could be the toughest weapon to stop in the NFL. Given some of his current inadequacies and what he has to work on, there is a world where he is one of the most sought-after players in fantasy football for 2021. He is tied to a (likely) future Hall of Fame quarterback in his prime and has a coach who believes in him to be “the guy”.

What Can We Conclude from this Case Study?

Despite possessing what may be viewed as an extremely high price for a sophomore, it seems almost inevitable for Metcalf to at least hold value – and he still has plenty of room to improve his stock. He is just 22 years old, so we are talking about a potential dynasty stud for the next seven-eight years, or as long as Russell Wilson is the quarterback in Seattle.

I am going to be buying Metcalf around the third/fourth round in startup drafts and if I can trade for him by giving up an older player like Mike Evans and getting something in return, I would be willing to make that swap. If you would like to see some more about Metcalf, where I breakdown his route tree and see what makes him a special talent, check out this video:

I say all of this to not convince you to buy Metcalf. You are free to make your own decisions. I know there are some believers out there, and I appreciate you.

If you do not yet believe, you will not regret coming over to our side and buying. Whether you believe in the all-mighty Sasquatch or not, there is nothing fake or mythical about DK Metcalf. He is real, a force to be reckoned with, and a big buy for my fantasy teams.

Thank you so much for reading my debut article at DLF. If you want to check out more of my work, feel free to follow me on Twitter @ChaBoyJRich.