Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Ke’Shawn Vaughn, RB TB

Frank Gruber Posted On June 14, 2020

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.

Name: Ke’Shawn Vaughn

Position: Running back

Pro Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

College Team: Vanderbilt

Draft Status: Round three, 76th overall

VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS

https://youtu.be/nrouyi2IkxI

COMBINE REVIEW

Height: 5’10”
Weight: 214 pounds
40-yard dash: 4.51 seconds
Bench press: N/A
Vertical jump: 32.0”
Broad jump: 117.0”
Three-cone: N/A
20-yard shuttle: N/A

STRENGTHS

Quality metrics profile
Deceptive versatility
Prime landing spot and opportunity

WEAKNESSES

Lacks elite elusiveness
Is already 23 years old
Potentially limited ceiling

OPPORTUNITIES

Ke’Shawn Vaughn transferred to Vanderbilt after playing his first two years at Illinois. He led the Commodores backfield in 2018 and 2019 with a combined 355-2,272-21 rushing line while adding 21 catches for 440 yards and three touchdowns receiving. Vaughn averaged 3.7 yards per carry after contact in 2018 and an impressive 5.3 yards per carry after contact in 2019.

From a metrics perspective, his college dominator rating (percentage of the team’s production) is in the top ten percent of historical running back prospects. His target share in the top 25% of prospects indicates satisfactory involvement as a receiver despite a season-high of only 28 receptions. He was part of the action when Vanderbilt threw the ball.

This should lead us to believe he has an opportunity to contribute as both a runner and receiver for Tampa Bay.

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Statistics from sports-reference.com.

THREATS

Vaughn landed in a coveted spot for fantasy when the Buccaneers selected him in the third round of the NFL draft. The Bucs feature some of the league’s best young talent and offensive coaches, but it is a team in transition. The Jameis Winston Experience has ended and been replaced by the Tom Brady Show. Ronald Jones, a former second-round pick, led the backfield with 203 touches last year. Peyton Barber’s departure vacates ten carries per game. 26-year-old former undrafted free agent Dare Ogunbowale – who led the Bucs backfield with 46 targets – returns.

The 2019 Bucs were top ten in the league in yards per play, net yards per pass attempt, percent of drives ending in a score, plays per drive and expected points from offense. They led the NFL with 6,500 intended air yards (air yards on all pass attempts) – a gaudy 17% more than the second-ranked team (Dallas with 5,539).

However, Tampa Bay ranked in the bottom quarter of the NFL in rushing yards before contact and rushing yards before contact per attempt. They were dead last in percentage of offensive drives ending in a turnover (20.7%; nearly double the league average), but that should improve with Brady under center. However, the offensive line production (or lack thereof) might be a concern for any runner in this offense.

SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS

Vaughn’s only real competition for RB1 volume is Jones. The expectation of immediate fantasy relevance is what has pushed Vaughn’s startup ADP from around 128 overall in March to its current post-NFL Draft 67. As the RB27 in DLF May startup dynasty ADP, he is valued as a borderline RB2. For reference, Jones has an overall ADP of 111 and RB43. The short term expectation is for Vaughn to take the RB1 role in Tampa but not become a true bell-cow back.

The lack of off-season activities will be detrimental to Vaughn, as it will for all rookies.

LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS

Despite arriving late on the dynasty radar, Vaughn was quickly recognized as a talented part of this year’s rookie class. He is an athletic talent with promising traits. His buzz within the devy community started to build after his impressive 2018 season, but his value did not truly ascend until draft capital and landing spot became prime additions to his prospect profile. Given his opportunity and positive attributes, Vaughn could develop into a long-term fantasy asset. His college workload metrics suggest he could take on a long-term role which would boost his value.

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON

Kenneth Dixon and Elijah McGuire are two comparisons that have been made. Vaughn has superior draft capital to those two, but they may have the edge in college production. Mockdraftable.com uses physical and athletic testing metrics to arrive at a peer group including Tashard Choice, Chris Thompson, Sony Michel and DeeJay Dallas.

PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE

According to DLF’s Rookie ADP, Vaughn currently holds a 1.10 average draft position as the sixth running back off the board, and the first after the ‘Big Five’. He has been selected as early as the 1.07 and as late as the 2.01 in the DLF ADP data, so that is the window you are looking at in non-superflex leagues. In superflex, the window gets pushed back three spots to the 1.10 average draft position.

With a rookie ADP between Justin Jefferson and Henry Ruggs, Vaughn sits in the back half of the first round of rookie drafts. He possesses good size, surprising playmaking ability and deceptive versatility. His overall prospect profile is attractive but the real allure is the opportunity in Tampa Bay.

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Frank Gruber

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Frank Gruber is a dynasty, #Devy and scouting writer at DLF. He has been winning dynasty leagues since 2003 and Devy leagues since 2011. As a Southerner and #FloridaMan who happened to marry a Yankee and move Up North, football runs deep. He is always looking to talk ball and help others build long lasting dynasties, and can be found on Twitter nearly 24/7.