Twitter Observations: Big Time Rush

Michael Moore Posted On June 11, 2020

The NFL, much like the rest of the country, is getting closer and closer to a full re-opening of its operation. Coaches are reporting, teams are having more meetings and more states are allowing sports teams to congregate. It all points to the NFL starting on time and all of our dynasty leagues not missing a beat. To that end, there were a lot of useful tweets about running backs that will have long-lasting effects on your dynasty team. A few of those tweets are dissected below.

A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.

Sony Up?

One of the NFL's greatest mysteries is how Sony Michel became a back with so little pass-catching usage and upside

— Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom) June 4, 2020

It wasn’t that long ago that dynasty leaguers (myself included) took Sony Michel with a top-three rookie pick. After all, he was joining Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots after they used a first-round pick on him. At the time of Michel’s drafting in 2018, the Patriots offense hadn’t finished outside the top 11 in either yards or points since 2003. To put that in perspective, Michel was eight years old.

Fast forward to 2020 and Michel is coming off a season in which he averaged 3.7 yards per carry, Brady has now left for Tampa and few people can name more than three players on the Patriots offense. Needless to say, whoever ends up as the starting quarterback in New England – Jarrett Stidham, Brian Hoyer or a player to be named later – Michel’s value doesn’t stand to gain a lot of value.

Dynasty Impact: Using the DLF Trade Analyzer, Michel would only fetch a late second-round rookie pick which may not quite be worth it. However, the list of current players you could swap him for would make a lot of sense.

As the tweet pointed out, Michel has little going on in the passing game – 19 receptions in two seasons! – which means he makes his fantasy points in the run game. But that strategy didn’t pan out last year as he finished as just a low-end RB3. In conclusion, you have a below-average fantasy back entering his age-25 season on a worse offense than last year. I’d sell.

Rock of Jacobs

Most rushing forced missed tackles

1. Josh Jacobs – 69
2. Nick Chubb – 66
3. Chris Carson – 62
4. Derrick Henry – 58

Good luck trying to bring these guys down pic.twitter.com/K3y0SwhFah

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) June 4, 2020

Speaking of running backs who weren’t involved with the passing game, Josh Jacobs was targeted just 27 times in his rookie season, catching only 20 of them and none for touchdowns. But unlike Michel, he did make the most of his rush attempts, totaling 242 of them in 13 games, averaging nearly five yards per carry and totaling 1,150 yards. The seven touchdowns helped too. He now enters his second season with the Raiders with very little behind him on the depth chart.

Dynasty Impact: Jacobs’ dynasty ranking certainly got pushed down because of the influx of rookies. There are currently three rookie backs ahead of Jacobs and one just behind him. So it makes sense that when using the DLF Trade Analyzer, Jacobs would require a high-end rookie pick this year to acquire. But history tells us not all of those will pan out which means Jacobs is still a value even being ranked 12th and one of those picks is not worth the gamble of a rookie. Jacobs is a hold at that price and a buy at anything less.

The Rolling Jones

https://twitter.com/AustinEllis0/status/1268288136460845056?s=20

It seems like the fantasy community has come to the consensus that there is no way Aaron Jones can repeat his success from 2019 when he scored 19 times. And they’re probably right! After all, it would be extremely hard to do that again even if you don’t count the Packers drafting a running back in the second round of this year’s draft. But none of that takes away from the fact that Jones is, and should still be, very good. He averaged five yards per carry for his career and still managed to score 13 times in his previous 24 games before his breakout 2019 season. So where does that leave him on your dynasty team?

Dynasty Impact: Jones represents a classic case of a player you should move on from before it’s too late. He finished last season as one of fantasy’s top backs and is still the lead back on a good team. But, unless he signs a contract extension with Green Bay, he’ll be a free agent after this season and the 2021 season will represent his age-26 season.

Using the Trade Analyzer, you could still get a mid-first in this year’s rookie draft for Jones. That would represent one of the upper-echelon running backs or even one of the top receivers in the draft, CeeDee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy. If your team isn’t contending this year, you’d be wise to start your rebuild with one of those rookies instead of Jones.

Dobbin Hours

There's a very real chance JK Dobbins ends up being the RB1 of this class and seemingly no one talks about it

-More productive than Zeke in college
-Draft Capital
-Run heavy team
-Behind 31 year old vet
-NFL offense is crazy similar to college offense

Am I missing something? pic.twitter.com/7XxYm9qJUf

— Sam Erman (@FFBallAllDay) June 7, 2020

We’re now in June which means rookie drafts are in full swing. In most drafts, the top two picks are some combination of Jonathan Taylor and Clyde Edwards-Helaire but what about after that? Personally, I’d be taking JK Dobbins and wouldn’t think twice for all the reasons the tweet referenced above, especially the quarterback he’s aligned with, the offense he’s in, and who he’s backing up. With the exception of CEH, no rookie back enters a better situation.

Dynasty Impact: Dobbins is one of those rookie backs ranked in-and-around sophomore Josh Jacobs but is one of my picks to be one of the backs who makes it. The key is making sure you can acquire him in your rookie drafts. Using the DLF Rookie App, Dobbins should be there for anyone picking fourth – and may even be available later.

If you find yourself in a position to pick Dobbins at three – or even better, later – you absolutely should. He’s just 21 and will take over for Mark Ingram no later than next season. He’s tied to Lamar Jackson for the foreseeable future and already put up better numbers than Ezekiel Elliott at Ohio State. This one isn’t hard.

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Michael Moore

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Michael has played fantasy football for over 20 years when his mom funded his first team in the fourth grade. He’s contributed to various fantasy football publications and most recently spent five years writing for the Fantasy side of things at Pro Football Focus.