Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Antonio Gibson, RB WAS

Frank Gruber Posted On June 11, 2020

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.

Name: Antonio Gibson

Position: Running back

Pro Team: Washington Redskins

College Team: Memphis

Draft Status: Round three, 66th overall

VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS

https://youtu.be/ChKVNQ9NpyY

COMBINE REVIEW

Height: 6’0”
Weight: 228 pounds
40-yard dash: 4.39 seconds
Bench press: 16 reps
Vertical jump: 35.0”
Broad jump: 118.0”
Three-cone: N/A
20-yard shuttle: N/A

STRENGTHS

Versatility
Elusiveness
Strength and physicality

WEAKNESSES

Limited body of work
One-year wonder
Raw

OPPORTUNITIES

Antonio Gibson started his collegiate career in junior college then transferred to Memphis for his final two years.

After a limited junior year, he needed just 71 touches from scrimmage to surpass 1,000 total yards in 2019 and added 644 yards on kickoff returns (28.0 yards per return). Pro Football Focus credits him with 16 broken tackles on 33 carries and 17 broken tackles on 38 receptions.

Gibson’s metrics profile is unique given his hybrid role and limited body of work. Classification as a running back puts him in the historical top 12 percentile in terms of target share, and in the 99th percentile of yards per carry. His third-round draft capital is a positive. A near 50-50 split of collegiate carries to receptions highlights his versatility.

This versatility will lead to plenty of opportunities in the Skins’ offense.

screen shot 2020 06 10 at 08.25.27

Statistics from sports-reference.com.

THREATS

In 2019, three-win Washington ran 885 plays, 13% below the league average. The offense was among the bottom five in advanced metrics including percentage of drives ending in a score, net yards per drive and expected points from passing offense.

35-year old Adrian Peterson returns, alongside Derrius Guice. Second-year back Bryce Love is healthy after a rookie season spent on injured reserve, but Chris Thompson has moved on. Second-year wide receiver Terry McLaurin returns after leading the team in 2019 with 93 targets.

Though Guice and McLaurin should have expanded roles, Gibson has a path to both rushing and receiving opportunities. Returning running backs combined for only 32 targets last season (23 for Peterson; nine for Guice). Chris Thompson’s departure vacates 5.3 targets per game, second-most on the team.

Also gone is former interim head coach Bill Callahan, who emphasized the running game while compiling a 3-8 record. In come head coach Ron Rivera and offensive coordinator Scott Turner from Carolina, which ranked second among all teams in pass attempts in 2019.

SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS

Gibson has a path to an immediate hybrid role this season. Expect the team to manufacture him at least a few touches per game as the Panthers did for Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore or Curtis Samuel. His ability to create missed tackles should earn both carries and targets, with McLaurin as the WR1. He should produce occasional splash plays and sustain his dynasty value but is unlikely to receive enough volume to earn consideration as a weekly starter.

The lack of off-season activities will be detrimental to Gibson, as it will for all rookies.

LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS

Despite arriving late on the dynasty radar, Gibson was quickly recognized as a talented part of this year’s rookie class. He is an athletic talent with promising traits. His buzz in the dynasty community seems to have increased since the NFL Draft as more is learned about him. Given his positive attributes, Gibson could develop into a long-term fantasy asset. However, volume could remain a long-term concern. In a ‘tweener’/hybrid role, Gibson must prove he can amass enough touches to sustain starting-level production.

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON

I avoid making player comparisons but the comparison to Joe Mixon caught my eye. Physically, both players are listed at 228 pounds with a BMI of around 30. Both are assets in the passing game with second-day NFL draft capital. However, Mixon is a more polished runner and less of a hybrid player than Gibson.

PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE

According to DLF’s Rookie ADP, Gibson currently holds a 2.09 average draft position as the eighth running back off the board. He has been selected as early as the 2.07 and as late as the 3.04 in the DLF ADP data, so you are looking at a wide window in non-superflex leagues. In superflex, the window gets pushed back five or so spots to the 2.12 average draft position.

With a rookie ADP between Tua Tagovailoa and AJ Dillon, Gibson sits in the back half of the second round of rookie drafts as a high upside option. He possesses good size, athleticism, YAC ability and the versatility coveted in today’s NFL. His overall prospect profile has both positive qualities and aspects that require monitoring. The main question around him may be if he can compile enough touches in a hybrid role to become a consistent weekly starter.

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Frank Gruber

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Frank Gruber is a dynasty, #Devy and scouting writer at DLF. He has been winning dynasty leagues since 2003 and Devy leagues since 2011. As a Southerner and #FloridaMan who happened to marry a Yankee and move Up North, football runs deep. He is always looking to talk ball and help others build long lasting dynasties, and can be found on Twitter nearly 24/7.