Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Tyler Johnson, WR TB
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.
Name: Tyler Johnson
Position: Wide receiver
Pro Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
College Team: Minnesota Golden Gophers
Draft Status: Round five, 161st overall
VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS
COMBINE REVIEW
- Height: 6’1’’
- Weight: 206 pounds
- Hands: 9’’
(Johnson did not take part in the combine athletic drills.)
STRENGTHS
- Elite-level ball skills with the ability to track the ball over his shoulder while trying to make plays downfield
- Pristine route runner
- Very physical at the catch point and knows how to use his body to box-out defenders
- His strong hands make him a contested-catch magician
- Has an assertive mentality when it comes to breaking off his routes and when the ball is in the air
WEAKNESSES
- He won’t burn you with his speed
- His limited short-area quickness prevents him from consistently creating separation out of his breaks
- Not very elusive after the catch
- Has a less-than-desirable catch radius
OPPORTUNITIES
Johnson landed in the best situation possible. He will instantly compete for snaps early in his career. We should see him playing in three wide receiver sets. The Bucs have some interesting wide receiver prospects on the backend of their roster, but he has more than enough talent to take the reins and cement himself as the team’s main option out of the slot.
On top of being able to compete for playing time early in his career, he will be playing with Tom Brady, one of the best quarterbacks of all time. Brady has a history of targeting slot receivers. If Johnson can build a rapport with his future hall of fame quarterback, then he could carve a larger than expected role within the offense.
THREATS
Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are arguably one of the best wide receiver duos in the league. Together, they owned a 45 percent target share and a 58 percent share of the air yards. Insert Rob Gronkowski – who has been one of Brady’s all-time favorite targets – and all you have is scraps for the rest of the receivers in the offense. Even if he sees the field early in his career, he will need to prove himself in order for Brady to consistently look his way.
Brady only wants to work with players he can trust. With the current state of the world and social distancing practicing limiting the ability for NFL teams to partake in regular off-season activities, it’s going to be harder for the rookies to gain a foothold with their new teams. If Johnson doesn’t get the opportunity to build much of a rapport with Brady in training camp, then it might be a while before we see him consistently targeted.
SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS
In the short-term, we should expect him to develop into a key piece to Tampa Bay’s offense. There’s a really good chance we see him taking snaps as the team’s main slot receiver during the first couple of years of his career. However, unless he takes the league by storm, there isn’t going to be enough volume in the passing game to make him fantasy-relevant. We should see him make some splash plays during his rookie season. He could also develop into a cheap option in DFS whenever the Buccaneers are projected to be in a shootout.
LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS
There are a lot of variables that could impact his long-term viability in fantasy. We don’t know how many years Brady has left in the tank. He wants to play forever, but has the option to hang it up after every single season. Not to mention whether or not the team will be able to keep the receiving duo of Godwin and Evans together for the long-term.
Evans is signed with the team through 2023. He will be 30 years old when he’s projected to hit free agency. Godwin’s rookie deal expires after the 2020 season and the Buccaneers will need to make a decision on whether or not to resign him. If either one of these two wide receivers leaves for greener pastures in the next couple of years, then we could see a large value boost for Johnson.
Due to him being a late round-prospect, the odds of Johnson emerging into a top ten receiver in the league isn’t good. On the contrary, he has more than enough talent to become a mainstay for quite some time. If anything, he can be a role player who can deliver WR3-WR2 production. Johnson’s player profile packs a lot of upside considering his skill set and how productive he was at the college level. If given enough volume, Johnson could develop into a highly coveted dynasty asset.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON
When I watch Johnson play, it’s hard to not think of Davante Adams. His ability to outmuscle defenders at the catch point is a thing of beauty. Both players are wizards when it comes to converting highlight-reel catches. Neither player will blaze the field with their speed, but they are cerebral enough to create separation with nuance and physicality.
Mohamed Sanu is another player who compares to him. Like Johnson, he plays primarily in the slot. Sanu isn’t the most gifted athlete but wins on the field with solid route running and strong hands.
PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE
He is currently falling anywhere between the late second to the early third round of rookie drafts. DLF’s May ADP has him being selected as the 15th wide receiver off the board. We should deem him a value in rookie drafts considering the level of talent that he possesses compared to his current price point. His draft capital is baked into his 30 overall ADP. If he went earlier in the draft, he would be fighting for first-round rookie draft status.
I think Johnson has a lot of untapped upside. If he can establish himself early in his career, then he has a chance to be one of the better wide receivers in the league. His fifth-round draft capital is very concerning, but considering how late he’s falling in rookie drafts, Johnson is more than worth the investment.
