Mixon it up without Joe: Examining the Cincinnati Bengals Backfield
Another off-season and another star running back is rumored to be prepared to hold out. Last year it was Ezekiel Elliott – whose holdout ended in time for him to play all 16 games – and Melvin Gordon, who missed the Chargers’ first four. This time around, there has been chatter that Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon, entering the final season of his rookie contract, might hold out in an attempt to force the team to pay him.
I’m not going to debate if running backs matter, and if they should be paid commiserate with the production they provide on the football field. Instead, at the suggestion of fellow DLF writer @FFJeffSmith, I am going to look at the impact on the Bengals backfield if Mixon were to miss any time.
Does It Matter?
Of course, it matters. If a starting running back position opens up in the NFL it’s like winning fantasy gold for whichever owner in your league owns the correct backup.
The Bengals offensive line certainly struggled in 2019, especially in run blocking, ranking 26th in adjusted line yards per Football Outsiders. The line should improve with the addition of Jonah Williams, 2019’s 11th overall pick, who missed the entire 2019 season due to a shoulder injury.
Joe Burrow joins the roster as the first overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft. Burrow showed a penchant for targeting the running back in college, so much so that he helped Clyde Edwards-Helaire set the LSU record for receptions by a running back with 55.
Mixon finished as the RB20 for the 2019 season but really picked up the pace in the final eight games of the year, averaging 22.12 points per game, which would have been the RB6 over a full season. While it’s highly doubtful any other Bengal running back would be able to produce like Mixon, they could provide RB2 value.
Giovani Bernard
As you can see below, despite Mixon’s threats of a hold-out, Gio Bernard isn’t exactly a hot commodity in the dynasty community. Using the DLF Dynasty Trade Finder, we see that of 4,930 dynasty league trades made on My Fantasy League platform during the month of May, just three trades included Bernard.
In one trade, Bernard was used in conjunction with a fourth-round rookie pick so the owner could move up to the third, in another he was traded for a seventh-rounder in an IDP league, and in another, he was part of a much, much, to complicated trade for my liking.
Through Joe Mixon’s first three seasons, he’s missed four games. In those contests, Bernard has produced like an RB1.
It should go without saying that a four-game sample size is too small to make any definitive statements, but if we look at Bernards’s career prior to the arrival of Mixon, we get a much larger sample size of 55 games.
In those 55 games, Bernard has averaged 12.95 fantasy points per game. That would have been enough for him to finish as the RB23 in 2019. So, case closed: Bernard is the back to own, right?
Yeah, not so fast my friend.
While Bernard has a history of production, the issue arises when you drill down to his 2019 season. Even though Bernard was active for all 16 games last season, he set career lows in rushing attempts, targets, and total opportunities.
Considering his sporadic usage, it makes sense that he set career lows in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns and total yards from scrimmage as well. One could argue that Bernard’s decline in usage was due to Bengals’ head coach Zac Taylor’s desire for a workhorse back role for Joe Mixon. But you can’t ignore Bernard’s career-low 3.2 yards per carry, or that his 7.8 yards per reception was the second-lowest of his career.
Based on his declining production and decreasing usage, I’m passing on Bernard even with his discounted price.
Rodney Anderson
Anderson would be another option for the starter role. His injury history is a level beyond extensive. Continuing a trend that started in college, he tore his right ACL in the Bengals third preseason game last year, after tearing the same ACL the year prior while at Oklahoma. He also suffered a broken left leg and a fractured vertebra in his neck during his time as a Sooner. When actually on the field, Anderson did produce though.
Statistics from sports-reference.com.
He was a four-star recruit in 2015 and ranked fourth overall for all-purpose backs. Anderson provides great size, strength, and elusiveness, along with good receiving ability.
The rookie out of @OU_Football Rodney Anderson making 'em miss 🔥#NYGvsCIN pic.twitter.com/6FSvu7Eahw
— NFL (@NFL) August 23, 2019
Anderson’s ADP is about as low as you can get. Taking a look at his DLF player page, we see that he’s currently the RB91 (I can’t even name 91 active running backs) and his overall ADP is sitting at 237.8 overall. That is nearly free. He is likely floating around on your league’s waiver wire (unless you play in a league with me) and is worth a speculative add.
Trayveon Williams
If forced to choose just one Bengal running back I want if Mixon were to hold out (kind of the point of this article), give me Williams.
Statistics from sports-reference.com.
Williams was extremely productive in college, finishing as the third-leading rusher in Texas A&M history. More than just a two-down back, he showed his receiving skills, exceeding 20 receptions in two of his three seasons, and finishing with 19 receptions in the other season. His combine performance, where he put up atrocious three-cone and shuttle times, led to questions regarding his quickness and agility.
Already considered a bit undersized (5’8”, 208 lbs), Williams fell to the sixth round despite being projected as a third or fourth-rounder. Despite his combine performance, he still has a couple of favorable comparisons including Steve Slaton, who finished as the RB8 in 2008, and Duke Johnson, who was the RB14 in 2017.
We have seen plenty of smaller backs produce in the NFL and in fantasy so Williams’s size doesn’t concern me. Though he might not be a physical marvel, he’s athletic enough, posting a 69th percentile 40-yard-dash time, and does have some burst with a 70th-percentile broad jump. Per PFF College, Williams actually led the SEC in runs ten yards or more in his final season at College Station and did so by a significant margin.
Trayveon Williams showed some serious quick burst this season and led the SEC in runs of 10 or more yards. pic.twitter.com/CTl9SCjMxS
— PFF College (@PFF_College) March 14, 2019
His receiving and strong blocking ability could keep him on the field for all three downs if given the opportunity. Williams’s ADP is non-existent. I don’t mean that hyperbolically either. He went outside of the top 280 overall and outside of the top 84 running backs in DLF’s May mock drafts. For nothing more than the cost of a roster spot, Williams is worth adding to your roster just in case Mixon decides to hold out.
Who, if anyone, is the running back to own in the Bengals backfield if Mixon does hold out? Let me know in the comments below. And if you ever on Twitter you can find me @ShaneIsTheWorst.
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