Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Denzel Mims, WR NYJ

Michael Moore

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.

Name: Denzel Mims

Position: Wide receiver

Pro Team: New York Jets

College Team: Baylor Bears

Draft Status: Second Round

Video Highlights

https://youtu.be/ZnWoYDCEvo4

COMBINE REVIEW

  • Height: 6’3″
  • Weight: 207 lbs
  • Arms: 33 7/8”
  • Hands: 9 3/8”
  • 40-yard dash: 4.38 seconds
  • Bench press: 16 reps
  • Three-cone: 6.66 seconds
  • Vertical jump: 38 1/2″
  • Broad jump: 131″

Strengths

  • Athletic freak with 40-yard dash, three-cone, and broad jump in the 90th-percentile or above.
  • Overall 94-percentile SPARQ score.
  • Consistently targeted deeper than most every other Power-5 receiver with an average aDOT topped only by Tee Higgins.
  • Consistently able to find the end zone – he scored eight times in each of his last three seasons.
  • Long arms (93rd percentile).

Weaknesses

  • Older for his class as he’ll be 23 for most of his rookie season.
  • Lean frame means he might get pushed around a bit by more physical NFL corners.
  • Didn’t run a full route tree in college but showed flashes in the Senior Bowl.
  • Lack of slot snaps limits his potential positions early on.
  • No return experience also limits time on the field.
  • Average-sized hands – odd considering his long arms and height.

Opportunities

Of the receivers drafted in the first two rounds, Mims joins, arguably, the weakest receivers room. Led by Jamison Crowder in the slot, and joined in the off-season by two first-round busts – Breshad Perriman and Josh Doctson – there is little by way of competition. It’s both a gift and a curse as Mims could be targeted early on by Sam Darnold and opposing defenses.

As for targets, there’s over 150 unaccounted for from last year just between the departures of Robby Anderson and Demaryius Thomas. And of the new receivers to join the Jets this off-season, Mims does have the most untapped potential to see what he can do with those. Perriman is a deep threat who profiles better as a third receiver – which he was in Tampa last year – making the chances slim he takes on a majority of targets. Doctson might not even make the team when the season starts. And Crowder led the team with all of 122 targets while playing all 16 games, which means he’s probably not adding any more.

Threats

There may be a lot of targets out there but don’t expect that number to grow as Adam Gase-led offenses have finished higher than 22nd in pass attempts in just one of his four years as a head coach. There’s also the question of quarterback Sam Darnold.

To date, there’s no evidence of him being a viable option for a winning team as he’s thrown nearly as many picks (28) as touchdowns (36). And in his two seasons at quarterback for the Jets, the team hasn’t had a receiver finish better as a WR3 in fantasy scoring. It’s hard to see Mims do any better if Gase is calling the plays and Darnold is leading the offense. The threat for Mims is the Jets themselves.

Short-Term Expectations

As mentioned above, as long Darnold is in town, it may be tough for Mims to generate any fantasy stats. There is simply no proof of Darnold being able to support his receivers. Crowder, the leading receiver last year, saw 122 targets and finished as a low-end WR3. Anderson didn’t fare any better the previous year.

In fact, no Jet receiver has reached 900 yards in Darnold’s short career. Hell, he’s only had three receivers top 700! So despite Mims being arguably the best prospect the Jets have had at receiver in recent memory, it may not be enough to overcome an average quarterback (at best).

Long-Term Expectations

Being drafted in the latter part of the second round isn’t as reassuring as being drafted in the first so Mims will be slightly more expendable than the receivers drafted ahead of him. However, there are also no other pass catchers signed long-term in New York, nor will there be. Crowder would only cost $1 million in dead money to cut next year and recent signee Perriman only signed a one-year deal. Quite literally, Mims is the longest-signed receiver on the Jets roster.

The biggest hurdle for Mims to be fantasy-relevant is surviving the next coaching regime. It’s hard to see coach Gase survive another campaign short of a miracle rebound by the Jets in 2020. Save for this first season in Miami where he notched ten wins, Gase hasn’t won more than seven in a single season since and has a career .469 winning percentage.

Ideally, the Jets would move on from both Gase and Darnold and install Mims as their top target two seasons from now with a new coach and new quarterback. If so, it’s possible Mims can produce WR1 numbers with his nose for the end zone and physical advantage.

NFL Player Comparison

Physically, Mims’ tall but lean frame projects the same as a few borderline WR1s. DJ Chark and DeVante Parker who, according to our DLF rankings, ranked as a WR2 and WR3 respectively actually finished as top-18 receivers in fantasy scoring last year. Neither had breakouts their rookie season but both had a lot of draft capital behind them which meant a longer leash. They both parlayed that patience into fantasy production and Mims should be no different. The team around him isn’t great but he’s got the tools to eventually overcome that.

Projected Rookie Draft Range

Currently, Mims’s ADP in rookie drafts is 14th overall. That jives with where he falls on our Rookie Draft App as well. Any doubts drafters had after Mims dropped in the actual draft are offset by one of the better opportunities of any rookie receiver combined with one of the best athletes of this class.

He’s more than likely available towards the front of the second round of a 12-team draft but absolutely will not be there in the middle of it. He’s a great complement to those dynasty teams that took one of the top running backs at the top of the first round in their rookie drafts.

michael moore