Superflex Strategy: Always Have a Backup Plan
“Uncertainty is the only certainty there is, and knowing how to live with insecurity is the only security.”
-John Allen Paulos
If these last few months have taught us anything, it’s to always expect the unexpected. While we cannot predict the future, we should always be prepared with a contingency plan. This sentiment is no more important than when addressing the quarterback position in a superflex league.
Unfamiliar with superflex? In the simplest terms, it’s a dynasty league which gives each franchise the option of starting two quarterbacks in their weekly lineups. It adds an extra layer of strategy to the mix and, in my opinion, should be the preferred format for dynasty leagues. Once you go superflex, a single-quarterback league will seem boring and redundant.
In this post COVID-19 world where infection could result in quarantine for NFL players, the backup quarterback position becomes even more crucial in reality and superflex dynasty football. This article discusses three current reserve quarterbacks who should be acquired as soon as possible by those superflex dynasty owners rostering their starting counterparts.
(All ADP data is from the DLF Championship Series presented by SafeLeagues while trades are courtesy of the DLF Trade Finder for 12-team superflex leagues).
Andy Dalton, DAL (ADP: 234.94, QB43)
DAL Starter: Dak Prescott (ADP: 9.85, QB4)
Dalton is the most obvious inclusion on this list because he’s the most important. Jerry Jones and the Dallas front office fired a shot across the bow of Prescott’s contract negotiations by signing the veteran as a safety net in case of a holdout. If the Cowboys’ brass decided it was important to have a nuclear option at the quarterback position, why shouldn’t you have the same assurance on your dynasty squad?
Dalton has never been hailed as a stud fantasy quarterback, but he’s always been a good candidate for a weekly QB1 stream. The former Bengal finished as a top option at the position in 2012 (QB12) with AJ Green as his only true offensive weapon. Who was the second-leading receiver on the 2012 Cincinnati team? Jermaine Gresham. His 16.67 fantasy points per game is impressive given the lack of options outside of his top receiver.
The 2013 season saw the two-time Pro Bowler reach his full potential as he finished in the top five (QB4) of fantasy quarterbacks while averaging a healthy 19.12 points per game. What was the difference from the previous season? Marvin Jones Jr. provided a perfect complement to Green while rookie Giovani Bernard added a dynamic playmaking ability to the backfield not provided by the middling BenJarvus Green-Ellis.
Trade Value
According to the DLF Trade Finder, it’s both a buyer and seller’s market for the TCU alum. At first glance, it appears the former Horned Frog can be acquired dirt cheap, and if I have shares of Prescott, this is where I would begin my negotiations. Yet, those owners of Dalton should hold out for more…
It’s safe to assume if the Red Rifle is rotting away on your dynasty roster, your squad isn’t championship bound. You’ve just been handed a golden opportunity to acquire future draft capital, take advantage of it! Even if you’re a contender and find him on your roster sans the starting Cowboy QB, these picks can be valuable in snagging another piece to push you over the top. Both the dynasty team with Prescott and their opponent with Dalton should expect to spend/receive a third-round rookie draft pick this season or next in the transaction.
The embarrassment of offensive riches now possessed by the Cowboys, and their benefit to Prescott, has been well documented on this site. It should also be noted how quickly Dalton would find himself in the weekly QB1 conversation should the Cowboys franchise signal-caller miss any time. Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Ezekiel Elliot, and CeeDee Lamb would easily be the best collection of talent ever at the veteran’s disposal. Personally, I don’t have a superflex roster featuring Prescott without Dalton as the insurance policy, and neither should you.
Case Keenum, CLE (ADP: 323.67, QB61)
CLE Starter: Baker Mayfield (ADP: 42.45, QB10)
Think back to your favorite holiday morning as a child… now imagine instead of getting that special present you were kicked square in the groin. Those are the emotions both Browns’ fans (hand raised) and those with dynasty shares of Mayfield (heavy sigh) experienced last season. A plethora of reasons contributed to the Browns and Mayfield’s 2019 demise; from an inept head coach whose “awe shucks” personality fooled us all to a lack of leadership in the locker room, specifically the quarterback room.
Enter Case Keenum. The former Viking not only provides crucial mentorship for the Oklahoma alum but is more than ready to step on the field should the former Heisman winner find himself unavailable. Keenum has the ability to do more than just provide a warm body behind center as new Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski was the Minnesota quarterbacks coach in 2017. That season, the veteran journeyman was QB14, had his best statistical season with a 3:1 TD/INT ratio, and finished as a weekly QB1 in 53% of his starts.
In the 2017 campaign, the Houston alum had an impressive arsenal of two dynamic wide receivers (Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs), a red-zone threat at tight end (Kyle Rudolph), and two running backs who complemented one another (Latavius Murray/Dalvin Cook pre-injury and Jerick McKinnon). That lineup is eerily similar to the current Browns lineup of Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham Jr, Austin Hooper, Nick Chubb, and Kareem Hunt.
Trade Value
The DLF Trade Finder shows the price to acquire the former Viking is what you’d expect for a 32-year-old backup. If you have Mayfield shares then a 2021 fifth, David Moore, or Kendrick Bourne are a minimal price to pay for peace of mind at the position in superflex.
PJ Walker, CAR (ADP: 272.81, QB47)
CAR Starter: Teddy Bridgewater (ADP: 93.75, QB25)
Image from xfl.com.
It’s easy to forget PJ Walker was on his way to becoming the 2020 XFL MVP until the Coronavirus pandemic shut down the world. The former Houston Roughneck signal-caller went from the Colts practice squad to one of the superstars of the upstart Spring football league.
Following the disbandment of the XFL, the Panthers inked Walker to a two year, $1.57 million deal where he’ll be reunited with college coach Matt Rhule.
Statistics from sports-reference.
The former Owl had an unremarkable but productive collegiate career. More important than any stats is the trust coach Rhule has in the backup quarterback. Should Bridgewater struggle or (heaven forbid) succumb to injury, Walker would line up behind center to an impressive offensive attack. It’s fair to say there were no players with the abilities of Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, or Curtis Samuel suiting up for Temple during the Rhule/Walker regime.
Trade Value
According to the DLF Trade Finder, the Panthers’ backup can be acquired for a 2021 fourth-round rookie selection. A rookie flier seems like an affordable price to pay for Walker’s potential upside.
He’s the one player in this article I have superflex shares of without rostering their starter. Though buyer beware, please keep reasonable expectations as both the defensive talent and coaching abilities in the NFL dwarfs that of his previous employer. Plus, an impressive first five starts are not always indicative of long-term success (see Ryan Leaf).
I compare it to a rookie pitcher in baseball; once the opposition is able to study your tendencies, they can enact a proper counterattack. How a young player adjusts to a more prepared defense makes the difference between a flash-in-the-pan and long-term starter. I’ll take the gamble on Walker becoming closer to the latter for the price of a late 22nd round startup pick.
Disagree with any of my advice? Want me to profile any other backup QBs in a future article? Please find me on Twitter @joshbrickner and/or reach out in the comments.
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