How to Create Player Tiers (and My Rookie Tiers)

John DiBari

When it comes to fantasy football drafts, everyone has their own style. One tool used by some fantasy owners is to construct player tiers from their rookie rankings to help them when it’s draft time. Much like everyone has different rankings, how they create players tiers can vary wildly too. There is no correct way to compose rankings or build out your player tiers, but I’ll share my approach, and hopefully, it can be helpful if you decide to tackle your own player rankings and tiers.

Positional Tiers

My first step in constructing rankings, then tiers, is to rank my players by position. Once you crank out your positional rankings, it becomes easier to find tier breaks within the position itself. Different owners will determine what is important to them, but for me, I overvalue safety when I compose my rankings- especially for early rounds. If you’re someone who values upside, you’ll likely have different rankings at the top while you swing for the fences. There’s no “right” way to do it. If you find a system that works for you, run with it. Remember, this is supposed to be fun. Get your guys!

Here are my positional rankings, with tiers separated by red lines:

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Quarterback

Tier One

My top tier of quarterbacks this season only has three names, unsurprisingly consisting of the three signal-callers selected at the top of the draft – Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert. All three should start at some point this season, if not right out of the gate in week one, and each should expect to have a steady job for at least the next three years.

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Tiers Two and Three

Initially, both Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts were in my top tier. After seeing their respective landing spots in Green Bay and Philadelphia, I bumped them down into tier three. I think they both have sky-high upside down the line but have little potential to be fantasy relevant for another two or three years.

The downgrade to Love and Hurts benefitted Jacob Eason, who found himself as the lone member of my second tier. I don’t love or hate Eason, but there is a sizable gap between him and the tier-one quarterbacks. Landing in Indianapolis gave him a huge bump as he gets to learn from Frank Reich while sitting behind Philip Rivers on a year-to-year deal.

Tier Four

If there is a gap between tiers one and two, there is a chasm between tiers three and four. I liked Anthony Gordon and Cole McDonald and was optimistic about their futures in better landing spots. Gordon was undrafted and ended up signing with the Seahawks and will be competing with Geno Smith for backup duties behind Russell Wilson. McDonald was drafted by Tennessee in the seventh round and is competing with Logan Woodside for the backup role behind Ryan Tannehill. Both have their warts, but may only be an injury away from taking some starting snaps. I consider them both high-priority handcuffs in superflex leagues.

Tier Five

Except for deep or superflex leagues, these players are undraftable. Jake Fromm and Nate Stanley may both end up as backup signal-callers on opening day, but neither will ever provide consistent fantasy points.

Running Back

Tier One

This year’s running back class had a clear top-five at the position very early in the process. Most probably still have the quintet as their top tier; however, I split it into two tiers following the draft. Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jonathan Taylor benefited greatly from their landing spots and draft capital. They landed in systems where their talents can be exploited as starters on two of the league’s top offenses.

Tier Two

I don’t hate The Rams or The Lions as a landing spot in general, but Cam Akers and D’Andre Swift look to be mired in timeshares initially. Although they might be able to efficiently produce on fewer touches, the volume likely won’t be there. Among the top five running backs, JK Dobbins might have the lowest floor in year one, biding his time behind Mark Ingram, but he arguably has the highest upside playing in Baltimore’s dynamic RPO system.

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Tier Three

There is a significant drop-off heading into tier three. I loved Ke’Shawn Vaughn going into the draft, but he is clearly a step down from the big five. He found himself in a favorable spot in Tampa Bay and may get touches early in the year, and truthfully could be tier three by himself. Antonio Gibson is a swiss-army knife of a player. I despise the landing spot in arguably the most crowded backfield in the league, but he has shown the ability to do more with less during his college career. Gibson scored a touchdown on 18% of his touches in college. Even if that is trimmed down to one-third in the pros, if he could tally a manageable 50 carries and 50 receptions, he could see the end zone six times.

Tier Four

Tier four is full of what-ifs. Darrynton Evans is never going to eat into Derrick Henry‘s workload as a change of pace back. Similarly, Anthony McFarland is stuck behind an incumbent starter, but he also has several other role players at the position ahead of him. AJ Dillon is likely the future in Green Bay, but it’s hard to imagine him taking work away from Aaron Jones early in his career.

Zack Moss is the most intriguing name in this group. The immortal Frank Gore carried the ball 25 times in the red zone last year- the 24th-most in the NFL. Included in those numbers were the 12th most carries inside the five too. Devin Singletary will be the main man in Buffalo, but Moss could see a very touchdown-dependent rookie season.

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Tier Five

Joshua Kelley and Lynn Bowden Jr make up a very “meh” tier. Kelley is the darling of many in the fantasy community and might be able to play himself into a more prominent role with the Chargers, but I don’t see a path to a significant fantasy role. Much like Antonio Gibson, Bowden is a versatile weapon who can be used in numerous ways, but he’ll never supplant Josh Jacobs. At his best, Bowden could take over the change-of-pace role Jalen Richard has held over the last few years. He’s a dynamic playmaker who could be productive on limited touches.

Tier Six

The three members of tier six are the last draftable group for fantasy. Seattle’s DeeJay Dallas is growing on me. As the season draws near, he could be one of my biggest risers. Seattle doesn’t care about draft capital, and Dallas finds himself behind some of the most banged-up running backs in the league. A willing pass blocker, it wouldn’t be a stretch to imagine Dallas getting work early in the season.

I liked Lamical Perine before the draft. Afterwards, not so much. I don’t want anything to do with the Jets as long as Adam Gase is in the picture. Arizona’s Eno Benjamin is the team’s RB3 behind Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds. I don’t love the talent, but if he gets on the field, Arizona’s system has proven to be a productive one for fantasy backs.

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Tier Seven… And Beyond!

Welcome to the world of the undraftables! A case can be made for each of the tier seven running backs, but they’re all long shots to have fantasy relevancy. James Robinson was a pre-draft favorite of mine. With the ongoing Leonard Fournette drama in Jacksonville, Robinson may see the field at some point. JaMycal Hasty and Salvon Ahmed were both UDFAs signed by the 49ers, and as we saw with Raheem Mostert, the Niners will give running backs a chance. Patrick Taylor Jr. found himself in Green Bay, and if Matt LaFleur is cleaning house like many of his moves have indicated, I wouldn’t be shocked if Taylor becomes the lightning to AJ Dillon’s thunder in 2021 or 2022.

Two honorable mentions that have been growing on me who I did not initially rank are Tampa Bay’s Raymond Calais and Detroit’s Jason Huntley. Although neither one will ever be a fantasy stud, they both could make pop in PPR leagues and are worth late dart throws in rookie drafts. Imagine a poor man’s Tarik Cohen or Duke Johnson.

Wide Receiver

In a stacked receiver class, the top three tiers are very close. My receiver rankings are not usually in line with much of the industry. I might be lower on a couple of top players and higher on a few sleeper-types each season, but it’s done well for me over the years. I’ll miss out on a few college stars, but it also means that I’ll avoid historic busts too (looking at you, Kevin White). Overdrafting my favorite lower-ranked players has led me to be overweight on players like Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton, and I can live with those results.

Tier One

I like Jalen Reagor landing with an Eagles team that is desperate for help at the position. Reagor probably came out of the draft with the best combination of talent and opportunity. I don’t love CeeDee Lamb in Dallas in 2020, and maybe not even in 2021, but he has a real shot at making a tremendous impact in 2022 when Amari Cooper‘s contract makes him extremely cuttable. Once he gets his opportunity, the sky’s the limit for Lamb. Similar to Reagor, Justin Jefferson found himself in an immediate starting role coming out of the draft. Jefferson feels exceptionally safe, given his new role in Minnesota. He’s my pick to finish with the most PPR points among the rookie receivers in 2020.

Jerry Jeudy rounds out my top tier. I think he’ll be a longtime contributor, but I don’t think his ceiling is as high as the players above him. Drew Lock isn’t terrible, but I don’t think being tied to him for long-term fantasy production is ideal. Courtland Sutton is still the team’s top option in the passing game, Denver also drafted KJ Hamler, and I’m still holding out hope (foolishly) for DaeSean Hamilton. Jeudy is capped unless there is a shakeup somewhere because I don’t see Lock as someone who can support multiple high-end fantasy receivers.

Tier Two

My second tier is probably wildly different than what you’ll see anywhere else. Bryan Edwards is one of my favorite players in this entire class. A third-round pick of the Raiders, Edwards has a 99th-percentile breakout age and consistently produced in a system while sharing targets with NFL-caliber players in Hayden Hurst and Deebo Samuel.

I’m also a sucker for Van Jefferson. He checks all of the boxes for me: I love seniors, I love seniors who play in the senior bowl, I love coach’s kids, and I love strong route runners. We’ll likely see a lackluster rookie campaign from Jefferson behind Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Josh Reynolds. However, going forward, there is reason for optimism. The Rams just traded away Brandin Cooks. Starters Kupp and Reynolds will see their contracts expire after the 2020 season, and Woods’ contract is expiring after 2021. Jefferson could see a massive increase in snaps and targets in 2021 and possibly another bump in 2022 as the Rams try to sort out their salary cap hell.

Jacksonville’s Laviska Shenault has tons of talent, but his concerning injury history keeps him out of the top tier. The Jags are talking about using him all over the field, and with various ways to get on the field – he could get volume in a variety of ways. I can’t separate Denzel Mims from his landing spot – particularly playing under Adam Gase. I’m not a fan, and I think everyone on the Jets needs to be downgraded as a result. I have him in tier two because I’m hoping Gase gets fired at the end of the season, but I’m cautious of his rock bottom floor.

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Tier Three

Cincinnati’s Tee Higgins disappointed many when he skipped the combine, but his selection as the first pick of the second round stimulated everyone’s interest again. AJ Green isn’t long for the Queen City, and Tyler Boyd is an ideal WR2. Higgins could develop alongside Joe Burrow and become his top weapon, but much like Mims, I don’t have much faith in this coaching staff or front office. The 49ers drafted Brandon Aiyuk in the first round, and despite Deebo Samuel already being there, it’s always fun to get a piece of Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Aiyuk is probably a better option in best-ball leagues, but he’s going to be given every chance to succeed. I was not very high on Michael Pittman, but it’s hard to argue for a better landing spot than as a potential opening day starter with the Colts.

Tier Four

Ravens. I liked both Devin Duvernay and James Proche pre-draft and wouldn’t be surprised to see them both starting alongside Marquise Brown next year after Willie Snead and Chris Moore‘s contracts expire. Duvernay has the draft capital and can be a weapon out of the slot, and he’s likely the safer of the two. Don’t sell Proche short though, with possibly the best hands in the entire class; he may emerge as one of Lamar Jackson‘s most reliable weapons in the future. Both are great buy options at their current ADPs.

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Tier Five

Although I’m very low on Henry Ruggs, not everyone else is. I like him for real football purposes, but suspect he’ll be too boom-or-bust to be used regularly for fantasy. The lack of consistency week-to-week is going to crush his owners. Denver’s KJ Hamler is slowly growing on me. Although, for all the reasons I’m concerned about Jeudy, I’m more concerned for Hamler. He’ll periodically show flashes and pop for a few monstrous games, but he’ll likely have plenty of duds mixed in there too as part of a suddenly crowded receiver room.

Chase Claypool is, at best, the fourth option in the Pittsburgh passing game. Many owners are holding out hope that he’ll be moved to tight end one day, but the Steelers are set on developing him as a receiver. Given Pittsburgh’s history of developing the position, he has some intriguing potential. Still, being buried behind a young trio of JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Washington, and Diontae Johnson, it’s hard to see how he’ll ever get the targets unless the team moves on from one or two of them.

Tier Six

We’re getting into deep waters here. I’d have felt better if Philip Rivers was still at the helm, but Joe Reed is stepping into the WR3 role with the Chargers. It’s hard to say what this Herbert-led offense is going to look like, but Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have missed a combined 33 games over their careers, and Reed should see an increased role if either misses time. I was an Antonio Gandy-Golden fan pre-draft, but landing in D.C. gives me some pause. With a new offensive system and coaching regime in place, it’s hard to know what kind of target volume AGG might see.

The Lions’ Quintez Cephus is unlikely to see a major role this year, but he could slide into Marvin Jones‘ job opposite Kenny Golladay in 2021 after the 31-year-old Jones’ contract expires. During the pre-draft process, Gabriel Davis didn’t move the needle for me as a prospect, and landing in Buffalo doesn’t help the fourth-round pick either. The Eagles drafted two late-round receivers in John Hightower and Quez Watkins. One of them has a chance to grab a significant role over the next few seasons. As of today, my money is on Hightower, and that’s why he is here in tier six, and Watkins finds himself in tier seven.

Tiers Seven and Eight

This is a smattering of dart throws with less than ideal landing spots and minimal draft capital. The biggest “name” here is Tampa Bay’s Tyler Johnson. Johnson is a bit of an enigma. Among the more highly-known receivers in devy circles for a couple of years, he slowly slipped down the fantasy and real-life football radars. He was highly thought of by many, but he skipped the East-West Shrine game, didn’t get invited to the Senior Bowl, and then skipped the combine workouts. This, and the lack of pro days in 2020, really hurt his draft stock. I could be way off, but the lack of draft capital for a guy who has been a known commodity for three years speaks volumes to me. Additionally, he’s stuck behind Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Rob Gronkowski– and who knows who will be throwing him the ball three years from now. Late in drafts, the rest of this bottom tier garners a shrug from me as I pinch my nose and roll the dice.

Tight End

Tiers One and Two

Yuck. This class was lacking before the draft, and things didn’t improve much afterwards. Adam Trautman was my favorite, and the Saints have had productive tight ends for a decade; as such, he’s my top player at the position. Cole Kmet was arguably the best real-life tight end in the draft, but you don’t get fantasy points for blocking and athleticism. He did get the draft capital going to the Bears in the second round, and at the time of the draft, he was the tenth tight end on the roster, so they must have plans for him.

The second tier consists of two players on the same team. I had Dalton Keene highly ranked early in the off-season, and Devin Asiasi checks a lot of boxes. The duo landing with New England- who needs help at the position- helps them both. The Patriots have shown an ability to effectively use two tight ends in the past and don’t have a strong wide receiver corps to eat up all of the targets.

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The Other Tiers

The top tiers are gross, but these tiers are horrific. Albert Okwuegbunam has athleticism through the roof, but landing in Denver might have been a death sentence. It’s been mentioned twice but bears repeating: he’ll be competing with Sutton, Jeudy, Hamilton, and Hamler, while Noah Fant is well ahead of him on the depth chart too. Yeesh, good luck to Albert O!

Harrison Bryant was another pre-draft fave of many, but going to Cleveland behind the recently signed Austin Hooper on a record deal, and David Njoku, who just had his option picked up, leaves little to no role at all in 2020. There aren’t many routes to production down the line for Bryant unless we see multiple changes to the roster.

One of Colby Parkinson or Stephen Sullivan could end up being the Seahawks’ top tight end a year or two from now, in what has been a safe but unspectacular role for fantasy. Thaddeus Moss went undrafted, but landing in Washington under Ron Rivera without a stud at the position above him, we could see him get on the field earlier rather than later.

Overall Tiers

When I develop my overall rankings, I treat it like a one-man mock. I look at my positional rankings and pick them off one-by-one, imagining who I would select in a draft. Typically my tier breaks in my overall rankings are in the same place as tier breaks within the positional rankings. When it comes to overall rankings and how I determine where my tier breaks fall, I again put myself into a draft-day mindset. If I had the tenth pick, for example, I’d prefer one of the players I have in tiers one or two if they fall to me, but given my overall tiers, I’d feel good landing anyone I have in tier three.

I keep that mentality throughout actual drafts just as when I build out my tiers. Are there players I like more in certain tiers? Absolutely. Don’t forget to keep ADP in mind during your drafts as well. I know I’m way higher on Van Jefferson than most, but I also know I should be able to land him in the third round. Stick to your rankings and tiers, but don’t grossly overdraft anyone if you don’t have to. I often tweak rankings and tiers slightly for each league based on several factors such as league scoring, other owner’s tendencies, team needs, and how the draft unfolds. I have 12 tiers in my over rankings and will shift players in those tiers based on those tweaks, especially based on team needs in specific drafts.

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One of the most important things you can do each year when preparing for your rookie drafts is to create your own rookie rankings. It will give you an idea of who you are higher and lower on, and as a result, you may generate some value in draft-day trades. Putting players into tiers is also helpful when you’re deciding to trade back or not. If someone is offering you a deal and you can move back five spots in a draft, and you have five or more players in a tier remaining, it’s almost always a no brainer to smash accept the deal as you’re not losing much by moving back. Developing player tiers can be a powerful, helpful tool for you as you look to crush your league-mates in the draft and build a winning dynasty roster.

john dibari