Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Laviska Shenault, WR JAC

Frank Gruber

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.

Name: Laviska Shenault

Position: Wide receiver

Pro Team: Jacksonville Jaguars

College Team: Colorado

Draft Status: Round two, 42nd overall

VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS

https://youtu.be/n_QMyfNJbVU

COMBINE REVIEW

  • Height: 6’1”
  • Weight: 227 pounds
  • Hands: 9”
  • 40-yard dash: 4.58 seconds
  • Bench press: 17 reps
  • Vertical jump: N/A
  • Broad jump: N/A
  • Three-cone: N/A
  • 20-yard shuttle: N/A

STRENGTHS

  • Versatility
  • Yards-after-catch ability
  • Strength and physicality
  • Catch radius

WEAKNESSES

  • Injury history
  • Consistency
  • Lack of elite speed

OPPORTUNITIES

Shenault has been a valuable devy asset since a breakout 2018 season in which he posted an 86-1,011-6 receiving line in just nine games. The metrics he compiled over the course of his college career are those of a quality prospect. Specifically, his breakout age, target share, and dominator rating are all in the top third of historical wide receiver prospects. His second-round draft capital completes an attractive prospect profile. His 42 career carries and seven rushing touchdowns highlight his versatility.

screen shot 2020 05 29 at 08.46.36

Statistics from sports-reference.com.

He steps into a role with some question marks. In 2019, the Jacksonville Jaguars ranked in the middle of the NFL in offense categories including percentage of drives ending in a score, expected points per possession, yards per pass attempt and quarterback rating. They were near the bottom of the league in expected points from offense.

The Jaguars did throw the ball a surprising amount, however, ranking 12th in pass attempts and 23rd in rush attempts, and their running game was inefficient as evidenced by their 26th rank in expected points from rushing. Perhaps the perception of the Jags as a run-heavy team is no longer accurate.

THREATS

Three Jaguars had 100 or more targets in 2019: underrated young talent DJ Chark (118 targets), 26-year old dependable fantasy WR4 Dede Westbrook (101) and deceptively efficient receiving back Leonard Fournette (100), who led the team with a whopping 76 receptions, a number that surpassed his total over the prior two seasons.

While Fournette’s totals can be expected to fall, Chark’s talent and opportunity need to be taken seriously. Chark was a top ten fantasy receiver before being slowed by an ankle injury the last month of the 2019 season, and he possesses a strong overall profile in his own right.

SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS

Shenault has a clear path to the number two receiver role in Jacksonville and his skill-set appears a good fit for the scheme of new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden. Shenault’s strength and yards-after-catch ability could earn targets on short and intermediate routes with Chark in the WR1 role and Westbrook stretching the field.

His versatility could also get him some carries and high percentage quick targets on volume that can produce occasional splash plays and sustain his dynasty value but is too light for viability as a fantasy starter.

The lack of off-season activities will be detrimental to Shenault, as it will for all rookie receivers.

LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS

Since 2018, Shenault has been viewed as an interesting prospect in this year’s rookie receiver class. He has great talent and a promising prospect profile. His buzz in the dynasty community seems to have increased since the NFL Draft.

Given his positive attributes, we can expect Shenault to become a long-term fantasy asset. Injuries are his biggest knock. As the saying goes, “the greatest ability is availability,” and availability seems to be the main thing holding him back.

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON

I avoid making player comparisons but have seen a few by others which seem apt for Shenault. Kenny Britt, JuJu Smith-Schuster and AJ Brown all have physical, stylistic, or metric-based attributes similar to Shenault’s in one way or another. They are players who create explosive plays despite lacking elite top-end speed. They are all physically stout, and most were also prolific college producers.

PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE

According to DLF’s Rookie ADP, Shenault currently holds a 2.07 average draft position as the 11th wide receiver off the board. He has gone as early as the 2.04 and as late as the 2.11 in the DLF ADP data, so that is the window you are looking at in non-superflex leagues. In superflex, the window gets pushed back only three or so spots to the 2.10 average draft position.

I have liked Shenault since 2018 and believe his down 2019 depressed his value, and it stayed low even after he added second-round NFL draft capital to his profile. With a rookie ADP between Zack Moss and Antonio Gibson, I will take Shenault every time. Injuries seem to be the main limiting factor for this dynamic player who possesses special size, deceptive athleticism, YAC ability and the versatility coveted in today’s NFL.

As with many rookie wide receivers, you may have to wait a few years for Shenault to become a reliable weekly fantasy option. In the meantime, his ability to create highlight plays on limited, diverse types of touches should protect his dynasty value. He is an attractive upside option in the later half of the second round of rookie drafts.

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