Twitter Observations: Bargain Hunting

Michael Moore

More and more states are allowing sports teams to reconvene. It’s a great sign for the NFL which, while never acknowledging it was in any danger of not playing, can safely move forward with an eye on the 2020 season. So can dynasty leaguers, and there were several notable tweets last week that could alter your dynasty strategy.

A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.

Treasure Hunt

There probably aren’t many original Kareem Hunt dynasty owners left but, if you are, it’s been a wild ride.

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He went from a third-round pick in the 2017 Draft to a bona fide RB1 in the Chiefs offense a year later, only to see it come crashing down after his run-in with the law. His value has finally settled on the RB2/3 line where his ADP has recently seen him drafted as RB27. It’s impressive it has stayed as high as it has considering Hunt was without a team after the Chiefs cut him.

He later signed on with the Browns then served a suspension for the first half of the 2019 season – then developed into one of the better pass-catching backs in all of football. And while Hunt never saw double-digit carries in any of those eight games, he did see 44 targets – averaging more than five a game – and caught 37 of them for nearly 300 yards.

Dynasty Impact: As the tweet points out, Hunt was just as valuable as Chubb, if not more so, in PPR leagues and that should continue in 2020 as their roles are not expected to change. But it’s past this season that Hunt’s value could get a real boost and return to what it was when he was in Kansas City. He’ll be a free agent due for a pay raise which means Cleveland will likely move on. As for the 31 other teams, it’s been long enough since his run-ins that teams will be less concerned about the optics of signing him. He’s still young and still shows the traits of a well-balanced workhorse.

Bounty Hunter

Like every other Raiders receiver last year (no Raiders receiver played all 16 games), Hunter Renfrow missed a handful of games due to injury which caused his season-long numbers to not look that impressive. But when you look at how efficient he was, as shown in the tweet above, Renfrow quietly had a great rookie season.

Drafted in the fifth round of the 2019 Draft, Renfrow wasn’t expected to do a lot after checking in at 5’10” and 185 pounds. But the motor that was on display in college at Clemson appealed to Jon Gruden and the Raiders who targeted him more than any other receiver towards the last half of the season.

Dynasty Impact: As far as season-long stats go, Renfrow finished as a top-60 receiver in PPR leagues which jives with his current dynasty ADP when you consider the influx of receivers just taken in the 2020 Draft.

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Three of those rookies were even drafted by the Raiders. Henry Ruggs (62nd overall ADP), Bryan Edwards (100th), and Lynn Bowden (151) all have ADPs significantly ahead of Renfrow (179) in dynasty startups. But Renfrow isn’t going anywhere and is certainly the best bargain as far as Raiders receivers and may be the best Raiders fantasy receiver, period. He had 100-plus receiving yards and a touchdown in each of the Raiders’ last two games of the 2019 season in what Renfrow dynasty owners hope is a preview of 2020.

Hands Brown

It seems like we get an Antonio Brown update every few months or so. Pulses raced a few months ago when the possibility of Brown reuniting with Tom Brady in Tampa Bay was floated. They raced a few months before that when Brown seemed to apologize to everyone in Pittsburgh, indicating a reunion was possible.

Now, the latest team to get its fans’ hopes up is Washington as Brown was seeing playing a nice game of catch with quarterback Dwayne Haskins. And in fairness, even though it’s just in warm-up gear, Brown looks pretty good!

Dynasty Impact: Brown is barely on our rankings radar but does manage to fetch roughly a third-round rookie pick, according to our trade analyzer. He does have his share of legal issues that will need to be resolved but if your dynasty leagues allow for a lot of bench spots, Brown is worth a look. He’s just 31 but played just one game last season so physically should be fresh. And whether it’s a third, fourth, or higher round rookie pick to acquire Brown as a flyer, at least you know what you’re getting.

Forget Parris

Our last tweet is not a bargain. After an assortment of injuries that derailed his rookie season, Parris Campbell has been an afterthought for those who drafted him last year. Initially viewed as a jack-of-all-trades – much like his Ohio State teammate Curtis Samuel – the possibilities were certainly exciting as the Colts still had Andrew Luck at quarterback and nothing by way of another receiving option next to TY Hilton.

Fast forward just one year after being drafted and Campbell is on his second quarterback while the Colts used second-round picks on another receiver (Michael Pittman, Jr) plus a running back (Jonathan Taylor), presumably shifting one of Taylor or starting incumbent Marlon Mack to see more targets. Either way, nothing’s gone right for Campbell in his NFL career.

Dynasty Impact: While Campbell’s health update is certainly promising, it doesn’t take away from the fact that the Colts seemingly moved on. Drafting two skill position players as high as they did suggests they’re going to see playing time right away. The ironic part is Campbell would have seen that time too – he was also drafted in the second round – if not for the injuries. Using the DLF Trade Analyzer, Campbell is currently worth a mid-to-late second-round rookie pick. To give you an idea of which rookies are available around that slot this year, the DLF Rookie Draft App gives us this:

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And this was just a traditional, 1QB, no IDP draft. Think of the possibilities in superflex or IDP leagues where the offensive skill positions are pushed down even more. I would sell Campbell and take advantage of this year’s strong rookie class.

michael moore