Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Michael Pittman, WR IND

Dwight Peebles

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.

Name: Michael Pittman

Position: Wide receiver

Pro Team: Indianapolis Colts

College Team: University of Southern California Trojans

Draft Status: Round two, 34th overall

VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS

COMBINE REVIEW

  • Height: 6’4″
  • Weight: 223 lbs
  • Arms: 32 1/2″
  • Hands: 9 1/4”
  • 40-yard dash: 4.52 seconds
  • Bench press: 13 reps
  • Three-cone: 6.96 seconds
  • Vertical jump: 36 1/2″
  • Broad jump: 121”

STRENGTHS

  • Strong, physical receiver
  • Tough runner with the ball in his hands. Not afraid to hit
  • Incredibly strong hands – rarely drops a pass
  • Catches through traffic and holds onto the ball through contact
  • Solid route runner and tracks ball well in the air
  • Competitive receiver who gets the ball in contested situations
  • Sound technical receiver who does a lot well

WEAKNESSES

  • Doesn’t create separation consistently within routes
  • Needs to be quicker and more sudden off the line
  • Not an elite athlete, speed will not win – needs to win with technicality and savvy
  • Needs to be more fluid in routes and explode out of cuts better

OPPORTUNITIES

Pittman lands in one of the best situations of all the pass-catchers in the 2020 class.

Last season, veteran TY Hilton led the Colts with 45 catches in ten games. Running back Nyheim Hines caught 44 balls and tight end Jack Doyle added 43. Zach Pascal also caught 41 passes and led the team with 607 yards and five touchdowns.

The Colts had 29.6% of targets vacated from 2019 per 4for4Sports, the sixth-highest rate in the league. The offense struggled with Jacoby Brissett at the helm for most of the season – the team ranked 30th in passing yards and 17th in points. The run game and defense kept them in many games. They brought in veteran Philip Rivers to give the team a quarterback who can hopefully push the ball downfield more. However, he is in the twilight of his career and looked unspectacular in 2019 though so may not be much of an upgrade.

The starters are currently projected to be Hilton and Pittman on the outside with second-year receiver Parris Campbell in the slot. Hilton does much of his damage underneath and short passes while Pittman should take a big share of the outside targets. He could quickly become the receiver Rivers looks for downfield and against the sidelines. Campbell is a bit of a wild card. He has good speed but I did not like him much coming out last year.

THREATS

Most of the threats facing him are listed above but Rivers could target running backs and tight ends as well. The Colts have heavily featured tight ends in the past and they added Trey Burton to complement incumbent starter Doyle. Jonathan Taylor was drafted to bolster the running game, which could relegate Marlon Mack to a role in which he becomes more involved in the passing game with Hines. The short passing game with the improved rushing attack could limit the times the ball is pushed downfield.

Pascal could also stay on the field and command targets. Campbell might take a stronger role downfield and Pittman may struggle to find targets. His role is unique. The team has been missing a complete receiver since Reggie Wayne retired. He has a great situation and things look good but it isn’t a totally locked-and-loaded situation.

SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS

I will double down with what I have been saying for the past month: Pittman will lead rookie receivers in catches and yards for 2020. There are a bunch of opportunities for targets and I love his skill-set in the offense. He is physical and his overall game will allow him to run routes in all situations. He will provide the Colts a big option to man the sidelines but also a reliable set of hands to catch over the middle.

My prediction for him this season is 80 catches for 1,050 yards and six touchdowns. He is a mature wide receiver with sure hands and will flourish alongside Hilton – both are good possession options and both players give veteran Rivers a solid duo of weapons on the outside.

LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS

The numbers above are close to the ceiling of where I see Pittman producing on a yearly basis. He will have a solid floor when he starts and should be a WR2 for fantasy squads for many years. He could approach WR1 numbers if Hilton is out or when Hilton retires. He doesn’t fit a true WR1 mold though so the Colts might look to find a Hilton/WR1 replacement if and when that does happen. However, Pittman could still fall into a role where 150 targets could be headed his way in this situation if the Colts allow him to be the man.

I am aggressively targeting him this off-season. The ownership group in Indianapolis is top-notch and they invest in developing their team around their stars. Pittman showed this past season at USC that he could be the alpha, the main target in an offense, on a team surrounded with elite talent. He may not be overwhelming but his balanced skill-set makes him versatile and dangerous.

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON

Based on measurables and college production, Pittman compares closely to Michael Thomas, Breshad Perriman, and Dante Pettis. A comparison I really love and is more grounded is former Notre Dame standout, Michael Floyd. Pittman has similar size and profile, and I could see him taking a similar career trajectory as Floyd’s. Floyd had a few stellar seasons and was as reliable as receivers get when he was on the field. Both receivers do a lot of things well but nothing spectacularly. Both have great hands and are strong, sure targets.

PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE

In May rookie draft ADP, the Colts’ rookie is going 13th on average as the seventh wide receiver off the board. I have seen him fall into the mid-second round on more than one occasion and even go in the later half of the first round a few times. His situation is so good and he should produce at least WR3 stats from day one.

In startup ADP, he is averaging 71.17. Players in the same range are DeVante Parker, Christian Kirk, and Marquise Brown. I love the situation of all three of those and would be hard-pressed to take Pittman ahead of them. He should be a more consistent producer than the aforementioned trio but all of them have higher ceilings.

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