We All Need Someone to Lean on, Part Three: Daniel Jones’ 2020 Outlook

David Willsey

Editor’s note: This is the third piece in a six-part series. Be sure to check out the remaining parts at DLF coming soon!

READ: Part One: Young Quarterbacks and the Dispersal of Targets | Part Two: Kyler Murray’s 2020 Outlook

In part three of this series, we are going to look at the sixth overall pick in 2019. Daniel Jones had some giant shoes to fill in the Big Apple but the rookie made quick work of the doubts from fans who still wanted Eli Manning to start. Yes, Jones, who was by no means perfect but he did also play most of the season with multiple injured starters in the skill department as well as missing two games himself late in the season due to an ankle injury.

Rookie Campaign

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Images from the ADP Over Time Tool.

Jones has taken a similar path during his rise up the ranks as Kyler Murray. Granted, not to the same level of course, but a solid rise nonetheless. You will also notice the same slight dip about a month or two into the 2019 season. Here are how the targets and production broke down despite the injuries running rampant through the Giants’ offense.

With the rest of the quarterbacks we cover, we are just going to look at their top three options but Jones has four who need mentioning.

Target And Production Breakdown

Note: Target and production breakdown reflects only the games in which the QB and receiving options were on the field together to best assess the usage.

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You will notice that unlike Murray, who had a similar yardage per target value to all three of his top options, Jones threw the ball downfield a little more and was fairly balanced in the distribution of the targets.

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All three top targets had similar shares but let us not forget, Shepard played in just nine games, Tate in 11, Slayton in 14 (Jones was not the starter for all games listed as missed due to injury), and likely the biggest factor – Engram – missing half of the season.

Engram was on a career-high pace of 5.5 receptions and 8.5 targets per game (16-game pace of 88 receptions and 136 targets) before knee and foot injuries cut his season short. The third-year tight end was more heavily used if you account for the beginning of the season with Eli Manning under center but still garnered over an 18% target and yardage share.

It was rookie WR Slayton who took in the largest percentage of passing TDs while on the field with Jones though.

Where Will The Targets Go?

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Draft picks via Pro Football Reference.

We can see in the image above that New York did not add any skill position players in the draft. Offensive line and defense were heavily targeted. They did grab a few pieces post-draft but not anyone who should affect any of these four options to greatly so the next thing to look at in this situation is when Engram is healthy, He will likely be heavily used underneath and in the middle – the same general areas as the slot receivers. Tate played by far the most in the slot of the four pass-catchers at 73.6% while Shepard went inside 40.1% of the time. Slayton was rarely, if ever, not spread wide.

In a somewhat unexpected turn of events, however, Tate’s (-1.2) and Shepard’s (-0.3) targets actually dropped following week nine, the last time Engram took the field. Was Saquon Barkley the beneficiary? Nope… Barkley lost nearly two targets per game in volume (1.7)…

The Rookies…

On average, Jones threw four more passes per game following the injury to Engram (36.1 to 40.1, Manning threw 11.1 fewer than Jones following Engram loss on average in week 14 and 15). Again though, who was catching them?

Darius Slayton received a 3.2 target per game increase (4.4 – 7.6) which is substantial and absolutely something to remember. The first-year wideout had a surprise mini-breakout campaign and on top of the target increase over the second half, Slayton scored five of his eight total TDs during the span. That is 29.4% of the total TDs (17) thrown by Jones and Manning following week nine. He will likely see some regression to the mean but an increase in volume can counteract the hit in the efficiency department. Where did the rest go though?

Above, we accounted for 3.2 lost targets among three players but they were all spoken for when we see the 3.2 targets per game increase for Slayton. Rhett Ellison missed most of the second half of the season as well as Engram. We know it was not the second-string tight end getting the bump…

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Image via Pro Football Reference.

… but, the third-string TE who was drafted in the sixth round by the San Francisco 49ers and later acquired from waivers by New York. Kaden Smith had a nice run in a fill-in but If Engram is healthy, Smith likely holds little or no value. That is a big “if” though! The highly-athletic tight end has yet to complete a full season in the pros. Look for similar numbers from Engram though if healthy. There are few tight ends who are as athletically gifted.

We have to project the order again, as we did with Murray and the Cardinals. If all are healthy, look for Engram to be at worst, the third-highest used receiving threat. Pat Shurmur not being in the building anymore could have an impact on the overall tight end usage but if there is a decline, it should not be that drastic considering the talent that Engram has.

Slayton is an interesting case. Vacated targets do not mean the next man up will get all that work. They have to earn that volume. Kaden Smith filled in admirably after the first two options dropped and even provided some solid fantasy weeks but with Engram on the field, look for Smith to be a non-factor. Slayton definitely earned his volume with high efficiency and even though there will be some regression, as stated above, the upside is clear. If Slayton can garner the number two option’s volume, he could be in for a big year. Again though, that is a decently large “if”…

Wrapping It Up

There is certainly some talent on this offense. Three solid receiving options at wide receiver, one very good tight end and a couple of admirable fill-ins, and one of the best all-around running backs in the league. New York revamped the offensive line which should only improve the situation for their second-year QB. Daniel Jones could be in for a big year. Thank you for reading and stay tuned for part four!

You can follow me on Twitter (@willson8tor) – as well as all the other great members of the DLF family – and on dlfstg02.dynastyleaguefootball.com, where there is no off-season.

david willsey