We All Need Someone to Lean on, Part Two: Kyler Murray’s 2020 Outlook
Editor’s note: This is the second piece in a six-part series. Be sure to check out the remaining parts at DLF coming soon!
READ: Part One: Young Quarterbacks and the Dispersal of Targets
Now, we will look at the four rookies from last season who fall into the category we covered in part one. Plus, of course, we will cover their weapons. Kyler Murray, the Arizona Cardinals’ number one overall pick from the 2019 NFL Draft, will be first in line.
This off-season, Murray got himself a brand new toy in the form of one of the best wide receivers in the game today: DeAndre Hopkins. That is never a bad thing, but we do know that a change in team for the WR position, in general, can be difficult. Let alone the fact that the ability to actually get in the building and learn the new scheme is as limited as it’s ever been with the current state of affairs around the world. However, if there is a player who can adjust to a bad situation, it is Hopkins.
Let us start by looking into Murray’s first year though.
Rookie Campaign
Images from the ADP Over Time Tool.
Over the past year, it has been a steady rise in ADP for Murray. There was a slight dip about a month or two into the 2019 season but the rookie was able to right the ship and it has been wheels-up ever since. Murray handled the pressure and more in his first season. Below, we see the breakdown of his production through the air and his top three targets.
Target And Production Breakdown
Note: Target and production breakdown reflects only the games in which the QB and receiving options were on the field together to best assess the usage.
Now, we know David Johnson has moved on to the Houston Texans and his play spiraled down towards the end of 2019 due to injury and the emergence of Kenyan Drake, who – following his midseason acquisition – was a highly effective weapon for the Cardinals. He caught a fair amount of passes himself through a half-season and was on a 70-target, 56-reception pace in the offense. Arizona loaded up on weapons in the 2019 draft (Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler, KeeSean Johnson), yet none of them panned out in year one so the high usage of the RBs in the passing game could be a result of a lack of trustworthy options at other positions.
2020 Draft
Arizona added Eno Benjamin in the seventh round of the draft. He slid down much farther than any of us could have imagined but the Cardinals landed themselves the second-best receiving back in the class in terms of per-game usage through the air. Benjamin, who hauled in 2.41 receptions per game during his career at Arizona State is likely not going to push Drake for the starting job but could give third-year RB Chase Edmonds a run for his money. Edmonds has had his moments and Benjamin is a seventh-round pick so Arizona clearly did not feel a huge need to bring someone else into the building but again, many thought Benjamin was a mid to early day three draft pick.
The addition of Hopkins to the fold could have a large impact on the overall usage for Drake and the running backs. 36-year-old Larry Fitzgerald will garner his targets still and Christian Kirk is still a great young emerging WR who actually led the team in target share during the games he was actually on the field – as we will see below. Drake will still be an effective weapon coming out of the backfield as he always has been but the ceiling might not be as high as anticipated. The WR corps should be able to open up the underneath options though, so when Drake does receive targets, they could result in big gains. Look for Arizona to really open it up in 2020.
Murray will still run but we likely will not see an increase in the 93 attempts for 544 yards and four TDs. The addition of one of the most reliable weapons in the game will likely limit the overall upside and as we saw above, if trends hold, rookie QBs see nearly 15% decrease in rushing attempts. Their ability to grow and learn the offense will only help to limit this in most cases because a large chunk of QB runs are coming when things break down and they scramble to avoid the rush. As a quarterback grows in experience, their ability to read things as they happen and go through all their progressions needs to advance or they may not see year three. Even if a player has a bad offensive line or a suspect receiving corps, players like Russell Wilson have shown us that scrambling does not need to result in a rush attempt and keeping your eyes downfield can result in huge chunk plays.
Who Gets The Lead Role?
With the changes in the offense, this situation can be a little tough to project. But despite the difficulty adjusting some WRs have when they change locations, Hopkins is Hopkins and should step right into the number one target slot. Remember from above, the number one target sees an average target share increase of <1.0% but nearly a 5% bump in their yardage share in the second year for a QB.
Where this could really get exciting, though, is for Christian Kirk. If you also remember, the second most targeted option sees the largest increase overall with a 3.31% increase in target share, 6.54% increase in yardage share, and a 7.56% increase in TD share. This resulted in a 5.80% overall average increase…
… and Murray was already targeting his number two option over 20% of the time (4.98% above average). But, just for a little context, here is the last time Nuk Hopkins caught passes from a rookie/second-year QB. He blots out the sun on a bad day…
Wrapping it Up
Christian Kirk is absolutely worth an investment when considering the potential for Arizona to be a high-powered offense in 2020 and moving forward – as well as the progression from the player himself. Hopkins may take a few weeks to really settle in but Murray’s ability to feed multiple targets and potentially support multiple quality fantasy options should only grow more in year two, again, if trends hold. Hopkins is signed through 2022 and Kirk through 2021 so there is plenty of time.
Investing in Murray is going to be difficult right now without giving up a boatload so if you have him already, count those blessings. Thank you for reading and stay tuned for part three!
You can follow me on Twitter (@willson8tor) – as well as all the other great members of the DLF family – and on dlfstg02.dynastyleaguefootball.com, where there is no off-season.
