Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: D’Andre Swift, RB DET
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.
Name: D’Andre Swift
Position: Running back
Pro Team: Detroit Lions
College Team: Georgia
Draft Status: Round two, 35th overall
VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS
COMBINE REVIEW
- Height: 5’8’’
- Weight: 212 pounds
- Hands: 9″
- 40-yard dash: 4.48 seconds
- Bench press: N/A
- Vertical jump: 35.5”
- Broad jump: 10’01”
- Three-Cone: N/A
- 20-yard shuttle: N/A
STRENGTHS
- Position flexibility
- Lateral quickness and agility
- Vision
- Patience
- Burst and acceleration
- Ability to line up in a slot receiver role
- Football IQ
- Low mileage
- Protects the football
- Excelled in power and zone
- Pass blocking (body/cutting)
WEAKNESSES
- He could run with more power
- Injury history
- Top-end speed
- Pass blocking (hands)
OPPORTUNITIES
D’Andre Swift only touched the ball 500 total times in his entire collegiate career. This 21-year-old and former five-star recruit is entering the NFL with plenty of tread left on the tires. He excelled at Georgia in both the running and passing game.
Statistics from sports-reference.com.
While being drafted 35th overall gives credence to his value — nearly as a first-rounder and only three selections behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire — landing in Detroit is a disappointment. The Lions have not had an elite running game since Barry Sanders, and that’s not due to a lack of effort. The Lions have now invested five total picks in the first two rounds of the draft since 2004 (Kevin Jones, Jahvid Best, Ameer Abdullah, Kerryon Johnson).
Detroit averaged 25.4 rush attempts per game in 2019, about the middle of the pack versus the rest of the NFL. Four running backs received 171 or more snaps with the offense last year, but no running back received more than 30% of their team’s workload. The departure of JD McKissic and ineffectiveness of the backups will surely allow Swift the opportunity to build a resume beginning week one.
THREATS
The most interesting landing spot of all top rookie running backs has to be the one in Detroit. In the 2018 NFL draft, the Lions traded up to acquire Kerryon Johnson in the second round. It was assumed that he would be the future at running back for a team desperate to find one.
Johnson originally shared carries with LeGarrette Blount before taking over the starting spot in week four due to his famous 101-yard performance the week prior. The game was significant because the Lions hadn’t had a 100-yard rusher in 70 games, the fourth-longest drought in NFL history. Johnson was declared a hero and the starting spot was his to keep moving forward.
Unfortunately for Johnson, injuries took their toll over the next two seasons. He ended his 2018 campaign on IR with a severe knee sprain, and landed on IR again in 2019 with a meniscus tear. He has missed a total of 14 games in two seasons, with only 1,044 rushing yards in that span.
Johnson has since recovered and will be the only threat to Swift for the starting role. However, Johnson’s injury history is the reason the Lions drafted Swift in the first place, so while I’m not pleased with the landing spot, I do have optimism the Lions drafted Swift with a purpose in mind.
SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS
Johnson will be the assumed starter in week one. The lack of off-season activities will be detrimental to Swift and to his goal of obtaining the starting role. However, having Johnson as a mentor should help Swift grow quicker than without.
I believe the Lions will do their best to split carries between the two backs. Head coach Matt Patricia is a disciple of Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, who has a history of a revolving door at the position. He may just ride the hot hand from week to week, and that may drive owners crazy in the short term.
Johnson still has two years remaining on his rookie deal. It’s not impossible that the Lions find a willing trade partner and jettison Johnson while he still has value. However, I think the more likely scenario is that Johnson will remain a nuisance to Swift this season and next, the same way Blount was to Johnson when he first joined the team.
LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS
Swift was regarded by many as the top back in this class pre-draft. He has great talent and a compact frame. One cannot argue that Swift’s talent should eventually win out. Perhaps he would have been a first-round pick had the draft not been so stacked or if the need at the position by other teams was greater.
However, the issue with landing in Detroit is both the history at the position and the decision by the head coach to seemingly want to employ an RBBC system. Swift would have been a better fit nearly anywhere else. It’s because of this and the competition with Johnson that I feel Swift’s long-term viability is in doubt.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON
This is a difficult player to find a comparison for. He’s not overly fast and didn’t excel at the combine. His tape shows great quickness and superb football skills. In my opinion, his interview answers indicate a high football IQ. He plays zone and power very well and can step into the starting lineup day one if needed.
If I’m forced to pick a comparison, I’d have to go with a better version of former first-round talent DeAngelo Williams. Williams was a good-not-great running back with the Carolina Panthers from 2006 to 2014. He didn’t own the starting role with the Panthers at all times — often sharing with Jonathan Stewart — but he performed well when needed, and was a solid flex at worst.
I think Swift has more skills, but everything else feels exactly like it did with the Panthers back in ‘06; A so-so coach with an average team, some competition in the backfield, starting a back with similar size and speed. I’d be hard-pressed to pick another comparison better than that.
PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE
According to DLF’s Rookie ADP, Swift currently holds a 3.20 average draft position and is usually the third running back off the board. He’s gone as late as fourth and as early as second, so that’s the window you’re looking at in non-superflex leagues. In superflex, the window gets pushed back another two spots.
Though I liked Swift back in March, I’ve been avoiding him in rookie drafts ever since. I found myself sitting in the sixth spot in a superflex league and I opted to trade back rather than add him to my roster. It’s nothing against Swift, who I think can be elite at the NFL level, it’s more due to the number of variables that surround him in that Detroit offense.
If you’re looking for a running back who checks all the boxes, and you’re sitting in the fourth spot of your rookie draft, it’ll be hard to do better than Swift. If you’re looking for immediate performance and a player who you can count on to elevate your team in the future, you may need to look elsewhere.
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