Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Henry Ruggs, WR LV

Dwight Peebles

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.

Name: Henry Ruggs

Position: Wide receiver

Pro Team: Las Vegas Raiders

College Team: Alabama Crimson Tide

Draft Status: Round one, 12th overall

VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ad7aiFsMYBg

COMBINE REVIEW

  • Height: 5’11″
  • Weight: 188 lbs
  • Arms: 30 1/2″
  • Hands: 10 1/8″
  • 40-yard dash: 4.27 seconds
  • Bench press: N/A
  • Three-cone: N/A
  • Vertical jump: 42″
  • Broad jump: 131”

STRENGTHS

  • Pure elite speed – fastest player in the class
  • Lateral quickness and ability to make defenders miss
  • Solid technique in route running – uses hips well and adjusts to ball in the air
  • Cuts on a dime and hardly slows down when doing so
  • Tough and sets up angles well to avoid big hits
  • Phenomenal yards-after-catch ability – routinely takes short passes for huge gains

WEAKNESSES

  • Needs to work on fine-tuning receiver traits such as hand usage, head fakes, and varying speed to create separation
  • Was never the top option and was always surrounded by a ton of talent
  • Small and thin frame – will get pushed around in man press coverage
  • Needs to be more consistent with route running

OPPORTUNITIES

After the first day of the draft, it looked like all the opportunity in the world was going to be on Ruggs’ plate. Then the Raiders drafted Bryan Edwards and Lynn Bowden in the third round with back-to-back picks. Each draftee could fill specific roles and will need to also vie with the incumbent starters from last year.

Hunter Renfrow led the wide receivers with 49 catches and Tyrell Williams was the recipient of 42 grabs. The team was led by tight end Darren Waller, who had 90 catches for 1,145 yards but only three scores. The team also added veteran Jason Witten, who caught 62 passes last year for the Cowboys after his brief retirement.

Looking at vacated targets, the Raiders only had 11.6% of targets vacated from 2019 per 4for4Sports, the tenth-lowest in the NFL. As a team, they attempted 523 passes which ranked 21st in the NFL. The team’s 70.2% completion rate was second-best in the NFL and 245.4 passing yards per game ranked ninth-best. Derek Carr threw for just over 4,000 yards with 21 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He will need to take a step forward to elevate the offense and the team brass has now given him the tools to do it.

Where does Ruggs fit in this puzzle? He has the draft capital and will likely start right away. He will give the Raiders a vertical threat they have been seeking for years but provides much more. He does a ton of damage on short passes. His run-after-the-catch ability will be huge in the offense taking a step forward. Carr is best throwing short to intermediate passes and only attempted 48 passes of over 20 yards last season per PFF. He was effective passing deep but did not attempt it much. However, he did not have a weapon like Ruggs.

THREATS

The tight ends in Las Vegas command so much of Carr’s attention. The receiving core was incomplete and has been ineffective since the departure of Amari Cooper. Ruggs could be a top target for the Raiders but his skill set probably favors him being the second option at receiver. Waller and Witten will command a good share of the targets, but there is a chunk to be carved out amongst the wide receiver corps.

Williams and Renfrow have established rapport with Carr, but Ruggs should start opposite of Williams and is currently listed there on early 2020 depth charts. Edwards could earn a starting role but is more of a possession receiver and Bowden would be electric in the slot, where Renfrow already starts and has been productive.

SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS

The Raiders should find ways to get Ruggs targets in his first season. The most potent offense in the league, the Kansas City Chiefs, have shown how to use a speedy receiver like the rookie effectively. Coach Jon Gruden must tailor the offense to have Carr target Ruggs on short crossing routes and screens. If they can find a way to get him in open space, he can do tons of damage.

Even with the manufactured touches, he will likely be a boom-or-bust player at best in his first year. There will be big games in which he can turn a few touches into 100 yards and a couple of scores but likely games in which he is shut out. Even with a talented surrounding cast and potent offense at Alabama, Ruggs still had unproductive games.

LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS

The long-term expectation for him will not be a whole lot more productive in my opinion. Speed is his calling card but he is more than just wheels. The ability to break long plays and score on every touch will be his fantasy relevance. Many players with this type of speed are hit and miss – not every player will be as fantasy-relevant as Tyreek Hill.

Ruggs will be a solid WR2 and provide games that can win you a week. But the games of low production will be maddening as a fantasy owner. He could develop his game and be more than just a burner receiver. He is more of a risk in the class than some of the receivers with more consistent games. His ability to put up huge week-winning stat lines in tantalizing and could be worth a risk.

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON

The comparison to Tyreek Hill is a pretty good one and is the ceiling for what he could be. I also like the comparison of Ted Ginn Jr., and it feels more like the floor of what we should expect. Ginn has been effective at times but maddeningly inconsistent. Hill has been amazing since his entrance into the NFL and much more consistent than many other “speed” guys.

PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE

In May rookie draft ADP, Ruggs is going number 11 on average and the fifth wide receiver off the board. I have seen him fall into the mid-second round on more than one occasion and as high as seven on another. Owners either really love him or don’t – he is one of the more polarizing players.

In startup ADP, he is averaging 62.83, and players in the same range are Melvin Gordon, Evan Engram, and Adam Thielen. For a speedy wideout with Tyreek Hill upside, it seems like a good value in this range. He is a risk but he has a coveted trait which NFL teams value more and more – speed.

dwight peebles
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