Dynasty Strategy: The Rule of 1.5

Ken Kelly Posted On May 25, 2020

Editor’s Note: I originally published this idea over ten years ago. Man, how time flies! One of the other owners encouraged me to refresh and re-post it as a strategy article, so here goes…

char·ac·ter [kar-ik-ter]

–noun

1. The aggregate of features and traits that form the individual nature of some person
2. One such feature or trait; characteristic.
3. Moral or ethical quality: a man of fine, honorable character.
4. Qualities of honesty, courage, or the like; integrity: It takes character to face up to a bully.

There are many things you can measure with athletes. The scouting combine, along some simple statistical analysis of current players show us that every year. I can easily get a 40 time, a broad jump distance, the number of catches/carries or the number of touchdowns scored for someone pretty easily. However, that’s not the only thing needed to accurately rank a player. Character is a big factor you can choose to use when building a team at the dynasty level. It’s one of the biggest factors I use when evaluating players and prospects. This article is designed to give you an idea of just how important character should be to you and also give you a simple rule of thumb on how to use character as an evaluation tool.

First, let’s start with the importance of character. To me, this is answered on an individual basis with one single question:

How important is it to you to have players with perceived high moral standards?

The answer to this is going to be different for everyone. Before you go to the comments and say you do or don’t care about it, remember that simple fact. I’m obviously a die-hard dynasty league player. I’m part owner of this site, for Pete’s sake. I’ve also written, edited or overseen nearly 10,000 articles on DLF over the past sixteen years – you could say I’m into this. I have a tendency to get emotionally attached to some players and character ends up meaning something to me. You may be different. That’s Kool and the gang, folks.

When a player I own goes haywire and gets in trouble with the law, I take it personally. I’m likely in the minority on that one, but I spend so much time on this that I hate to see strategic advantages I’ve worked hard to create disappear in one night with a drug charge, a dog killing spree or a pistol going off in someone’s sweat pants. It rips my guts out to see players I’ve invested so much time and effort in go in the tank. I’d rather lose with good players than win with the rotten ones of the world. I have no fun on Sundays rooting for players who are looked upon as “bad apples” as well. It just doesn’t feel right to me. I stay pretty far away from these players just to ensure (as much as I can) that I won’t have any surprises.

If you don’t feel a personal connection to your players and are only in it for financial gain or the thrill of victory, this likely doesn’t come into play as much. It’s not bad, either. In the end, FFB and especially Dynasty leagues are about competitive advantages and strategic maneuvering. If you can remove human emotion, it’s likely a tool you can use to your advantage. However, you still need to be very smart about how much risk you take on.

Before I introduce my own character risk-based ranking formula, let’s assume two things. One, that you don’t completely remove these players from your list and don’t have a deep emotional connection to them. Two, you’ve categorized your team effectively. It’s VERY important to categorize your team. To me, there are two categories – the “ins” and the “outs.” The “ins” are the teams who are competitive now and trying to win a title this season or next. The “outs” are the ones who aren’t. The “ins” are more likely to take on more risk than the “outs.” As one general rule, I never have more than 1/10th of my roster filled with red flags, though.

The rule of thumb I use is something I call, “The rule of 1.5.” Here’s how it works. First, you take your existing positional dynasty rankings and number each player from #1 and beyond. These rankings need to be unbiased and as complete and current as possible. If you don’t have these made, shame has come down on you from me. You should ALWAYS have this ready to use for trades and evaluations and not just rely on DLF rankings or ADP alone. Do that, then come back and read the rest of this article. For players I mark with character concerns, I take my existing positional ranking and multiply them by 1.5. For example, if I have Tyreek Hill at #3, I use my formula and multiply 3 x 1.5 for a total of 4.5. Hill is now somewhere between #4 and #5 on my wide receiver list instead of #3. If I could trade him straight up for a receiver I have ranked at #4 or #5, I’d do it. Here’s a more detailed example:

Sample Rankings

Tyreek Hill = WR3
Kareem Hunt = RB23

From any list, it’s up to you on who you want to indicate as “character concern.” There are lots of different things to factor in when making that decision. At times, I’ve even tiered my severity of rankings punishment based on the amount of risk. For example, I might use “2” as the multiplier on a player right now because of the criminal nature of his offenses. I would also likely use “1.25” on a player who seems to only be getting into minor trouble. How you use it is up to you, but the idea is that you use it in some way, shape or form. The simple “rule of 1.5” is a great start for a rookie coach. There are always a few players each year who can fit this criteria, though.

If you factor in “the rule of 1.5,” that puts Hill at WR5, and Hunt at RB36. Now, that may seem severe (especially with Hunt). For me, this has always worked because I value my second tier players a lot. They’re incredibly useful for bye weeks, injuries and to play matchups. I’m very apt to play it safe with these guys. In addition, the higher the ranking, the more extreme the difference is between players, thus a smaller gap in ranking number. I mean, really, the difference between Michael Thomas (WR1) and AJ Brown (WR10) is big. The difference between Julio Jones (WR20) and Jarvis Landry (WR30) is not nearly as extreme. If you feel your team isn’t deep enough to handle suspensions, I’d steer clear. This is also especially important if you’re a team considered one of the “outs.” If that fits, you likely don’t have enough in the cupboard to survive a player going in the tank. It’s true that player values go down with arrests or suspensions right when they happen, but I tend to move quickly BEFORE a pattern of behavior emerges. Failure to accurately account in some way for character can be a death sentence for your team.

Character is one of the biggest factors I use when evaluating players and prospects. If you ask yourself the simple question of, “how important is it to me have players with perceived high moral standards,” evaluate your team effectively and use the “rule of 1.5” as a general measuring stick, you’ll find success in coming up with an accurate risk tolerance formula. You never know when a player is going to surprise you and while this formula wouldn’t have saved you from the fallout we saw from players like Ray Rice, it could have certainly saved you from going down with the Josh Gordon ship – you would have traded him long before his massive string of suspensions occurred.

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Ken Kelly

Co-Founder at DynastyLeagueFootball

Ken is a corporate trainer by day an a tireless editor of dynasty content by night. His passion for the World Champion Seattle Seahawks is second only to his love of fantasy football and the dynasty format.

Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK