Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Brandon Aiyuk, WR SF

Michael Moore Posted On May 25, 2020

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.

Name: Brandon Aiyuk

Position: Wide receiver

Pro Team: San Francisco 49ers

College Team: Arizona State Sun Devils

Draft Status: First round, 25th overall

Video Highlights

https://youtu.be/4-t9vUFcp5s

COMBINE REVIEW

Height: 6’0″
Weight: 205 lbs.
Arms: 33 1/2”
Hands: 9 3/4”
40-yard dash: 4.50 seconds
Bench press: 11 reps
Three-cone: N/A
Vertical jump: 40″
Broad jump: 128″

Strengths

Incredible yards-after-the-catch athlete who averaged the sixth-most YAC in all of college football
Near-elite explosion with a broad jump in the 88th percentile and vertical jump in the 92nd percentile
76th-percentile overall SPARQ athlete
One of the top returners in all of college football
Average speed but good for this size and makeup
Long arms and big hands allow him to pluck balls
Played inside and outside snaps in college

Weaknesses

Mainly operated on straight-line routes, unknown ability in more complicated route tree
Strength is an issue, shown by his 11 bench press reps at the combine
Little experience against man or press coverage
Had only a single year of full-time reps in Division I-A football
Still recovering from core muscle surgery

Opportunities

San Francisco traded for Emmanuel Sanders midway through last season because they knew they needed another pass catcher. But Sanders left via free agency and it’s doubtful that Dante Pettis, Kendrick Bourne, or any other 49er holdovers from last year developed enough in the off-season to enter the starting lineup.

In addition to Sanders leaving, the offense lost Marquise Goodwin and Matt Breida who were traded away this past off-season. Between all three (Sanders, Goodwin, Breida), they combined for 96 targets last season which is a number that should hold as it’s unlikely the 49ers increase their number of pass attempts from 2019 where they ranked second-to-last with 28 per game. It’s possible Raheem Mostert or Tevin Coleman siphon off some of Breida’s targets but keep in mind that Sanders’ 53 targets last year came in only ten games while Goodwins’ 21 came in six. So, between the two departed receivers, you have a whole season of targets.

Where Aiyuk could see immediate work is the return game. He was the leading returner – both punt and kick – for Arizona State last season where he averaged nearly 32 yards per kick return and 16 yards per punt return, both of which were in the top-five in all of college football last season. Aiyuk has only 2018 seventh-round pick Richie James to compete with for that job.

Threats

While the starting job opposite Deebo Samuel is wide open, it doesn’t mean the targets won’t be gobbled up by a committee. The 49ers have not one but two receivers who were essentially red-shirted last year due to injury. Trent Taylor’s only job is to man the slot and all indications are he’ll be given the opportunity. Then there’s sophomore receiver Jalen Hurd who is a wild card in every sense of the term.

Hurd was primarily a running back at Tennessee before transferring to Baylor and playing receiver his senior season. He has less experience at the position in big-time college football than even Aiyuk. He was also drafted in the third round which means the 49ers have a vested interest (and money) tied up in the hope that Hurd works out. Both Taylor and Hurd, who are both coming off significant injuries, will be given the first crack given their veteran status.

Short-Term Expectations

San Francisco, in its current form, is a run-first team and pass attempts are hard to come by. Case in point: their 28 pass attempts per game were second-to-last in all of football last year. That’s how coach Kyle Shanahan wants it, and, to his credit, they do it well which means there isn’t really a good reason to change it this season. The nearly 100 targets mentioned above – that aren’t currently accounted for – is a true best-case scenario for Aiyuk. However, Deebo Samuel proved that you can still be relevant after finishing as a WR3 in fantasy scoring despite seeing only 81 targets. That should be the goal for Aiyuk as well.

Long-Term Expectations

With the amount of draft capital expended on Aiyuk, I’m higher than most on his long-term success. The 49ers gave up a fourth and fifth-round pick to move up just six spots to draft Aiyuk despite the strength at the position of this rookie class. It also marks the first first-round receiver taken by the Kyle Shanahan/John Lynch regime even though they took four receivers in their previous three drafts. Those actions point to a team that views Aiyuk as a potential WR1.

And whether Jimmy Garoppolo is the 49ers quarterback long-term or not, I believe they’ll eventually start slinging it more. In his years as a coordinator, Shanahan oversaw more offenses that were top-ten in pass attempts (six) than were top-ten in rush attempts (two). For all we know, Shanahan was just waiting for his WR1 to start the transition.

NFL Player Comparison

Physically, Aiyuk compares to some of the best receivers in dynasty leagues. In Davante Adams and DJ Moore, you have two players who weren’t studs right out of the gate – Adams didn’t top 1,000 yards until his fifth season – but are now, according to our DLF rankings, top-ten receivers. They have proven they can play on the outside at the next level and are their respective teams’ top target.

As far as style, Aiyuk compares quite well to his new 49er teammate Deebo Samuel. He may have an average frame, but his open-field skills have few peers. Samuel, like Aiyuk, was a yards-after-catch master and an excellent kick returner. I’m sure Shanahan is licking his chops to have a second Samuel on the team.

Projected Rookie Draft Range

Currently, Aiyuk is being drafted on average 15th overall. Granted, it’s a strong year for rookie receivers but this still seems like a bargain. Looking at the same ADP data, there are currently two second-round receivers and a third-round running back being taken ahead of him. Using our Rookie Draft App, you’re virtually guaranteed to get Aiyuk late in the first round. When the second round starts is when Aiyuk starts coming off the board.

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Michael Moore

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Michael has played fantasy football for over 20 years when his mom funded his first team in the fourth grade. He’s contributed to various fantasy football publications and most recently spent five years writing for the Fantasy side of things at Pro Football Focus.