Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Justin Jefferson, WR MIN

Noah Ballweg

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.

Name: Justin Jefferson

Position: Wide receiver

Pro Team: Minnesota Vikings

College Team: LSU Tigers

Draft Status: Round one, 22nd overall

Video Highlights

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUx9fPziAjs

Combine Review

  • Height: 6’1”
  • Weight: 202 lbs
  • Arms: 33”
  • Hands: 9 1/8″
  • 40-yard dash: 4.43 seconds
  • Bench Press: N/A
  • Three-Cone Drill: N/A
  • Vertical Jump: 37 1/2″
  • Broad Jump: 126”

Strengths

  • Terrific cross-field vision.
  • Versatility to play in the slot and to move to the outside of the field.
  • High-end athleticism with yards-after-catch upside.
  • Great first step, leading to quick release off the line of scrimmage.
  • Incredible mid-route adjustments. Able to locate the ball and position himself for it.

Weaknesses

  • Physically needs to increase mass and add more strength.
  • Run blocking.
  • Separation ability is limited.
  • Spread scheme at LSU created targets for Jefferson. Will need to create his own at Pro level.

Opportunities

Outside of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Justin Jefferson may have the most opportunity to make a day one impact of any of the rookie positional players selected in the 2020 NFL Draft. With the departure of Stefon Diggs from Minnesota, the need for another playmaker opposite of an aging Adam Thielen was evident. With an established run game in Dalvin Cook and a solidified quarterback in Kirk Cousins, Jefferson can step into an already dangerous offense and play the role of “X-factor.”

While we know all that, Diggs’ 94 vacated targets do not automatically turn into receptions for Jefferson. What we do know is that the Vikings spent high draft capital to get one of the most explosive pass-catchers in this draft. If Jefferson can prove to create his targets at the pro level he should be a top-25 dynasty wide receiver for years to come.

Threats

The good news is that the Vikings moved the two biggest threats to Jefferson’s success plan. With Diggs and Laquon Treadwell now out of the picture, Jefferson immediately steps into the WR2 role. In my opinion, the biggest threat to his success is himself. I love what he was able to accomplish at the college level amidst many competing weapons. However, in the NFL, teams will be able to match size for size against the rookie, forcing him to create his targets.

Short-Term Expectations

Given the high draft capital that the Vikings spent on Jefferson, you can expect him to be slated as a day one starter in the NFL and dynasty leagues. We have to pump the brakes on the hopes of Jefferson immediately producing at a consistent level, but his immediate floor should be a low-end WR2 at the least with great upside.

Long-Term Expectations

Eventually, I expect Jefferson to claim the number one receiving role for the Vikings. An aging Adam Thielen is still a proven producer but has struggled to stay on the field consistently as of late. Long term, I expect Jefferson to be a WR1 in this offense and dynasty leagues for many years to come. The Vikings should draft another handful of receivers in the 2021 class which will only uplift Jefferson’s value, rather than diminish it.

NFL Player Comparison

Jefferson reminds me a lot of former Viking – better known for his days as a Green Bay Packer – Greg Jennings.

With very similar measurables at the NFL Combine, Jefferson and Jennings remind me of each other for one simple reason: hands. Jennings was a great route runner in his prime, but never the most explosive nor elite athlete at the position. What set him apart were his hands and consistent ability to be reliable for whatever franchise he played for.

Jefferson will offer the same thing. I think he is a much better athlete than Jennings, but what will set him apart for years to come will be his ability to be relied upon by quarterbacks throwing him a ball. He has a knack for making highlight-reel catches in traffic and your ability to consistently catch targets trumps everything else, in my book.

Projected Rookie Draft Range

Because of the depth in this 2020 receiver class, the value of the late first-round picks have soared, with players like Jefferson, Henry Ruggs, and Jalen Reagor all being available late towards the end of the first round. Of those three names alone, Jefferson is by far the safest pick, and owners can take comfort knowing the value that they can get where Jefferson and other receivers of his caliber are being drafted.

Jefferson currently sits ninth in DLF’s rookie rankings. Before the NFL Combine was taken into account, Jefferson had an ADP of 11.40 in March, but he now holds an ADP of 9.60 in May, and is being drafted ahead of Ruggs and Tee Higgins, the two receivers who were ahead of him in March.

I love Jefferson’s value and because of his immediate WR2 status with the Vikings, I am happy to trade back to the 1.08-1.10 slots to grab as many shares of him as I can. Odds are his value is just going to keep rising throughout his career.